Global Economic Shock from Middle East Conflict: Over 23 Million Children at Risk of Poverty, Warns UNICEF in New Report

Report titled 'The Impact of the Middle East War on Children in Monetarily Poor Households'

[New York, 16 July 2026]

A new analysis released today by UNICEF (United Nations Children's Fund) reveals that ongoing tensions in the Middle East and associated disruptions to maritime transport are having harmful and irreversible impacts on children, with up to 23.4 million children at risk of falling into monetary poverty by the end of the year.

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Titled 'The Impact of the Middle East War on Children in Monetarily Poor Households,' the report draws on data from over 167 countries to expose how widespread economic shocks—driven by rising food and energy prices and transport delays linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—are reducing the quantity and quality of goods families can afford. Children in the poorest households are being hit hardest.

Fadumo, a mother holding her one-year-old daughter Kali, at a domestic refugee camp in Bay State, Burhakaba. Her family lost their livelihood due to drought and now lives in displacement, with Kali facing the risk of malnutrition (Somalia, photographed 31 May 2026) © UNICEF/UN0882695/Yasin

Catherine Russell, UNICEF Executive Director, said: 'Children are paying the price for the escalating conflict in the Middle East. And its impact extends far beyond the region, affecting children living thousands of miles away. The longer this situation persists, the more severe the consequences become. Soaring prices make it harder for families to afford food and education. For children already living in poverty, these economic shocks deepen hardship and could have lifelong consequences.'

The report examines two poverty scenarios: 'adverse' and 'severe.' Under the 'adverse' scenario, a moderate economic shock could push 18.3 million children into monetary poverty. Under the 'severe' scenario, which assumes stronger and longer-lasting disruptions to prices and economic activity, the conflict could push 23.4 million children into monetary poverty if it continues.

Tariqua, a beneficiary of UNICEF’s cash transfer program for vulnerable households with young children. She is working to expand her farmland and provide more nutritious meals for her children. (Ethiopia, photographed 23 June 2026) © UNICEF/UN0881746/Ayene

The analysis shows that child monetary poverty is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks. Rising food and energy prices, combined with limited fiscal space in many countries, are making it increasingly difficult for households to meet basic needs.

14-year-old Tawhida (left) decorates sandal straps at home in Dhaka with her mother. This home-based work is a vital source of income for the household. (Bangladesh, photographed 12 May 2026) © UNICEF/UN0866111/Sujan

Asia and Africa account for the largest share of global increases in monetary poverty, together representing about 80% of the total. Both regions already had high baseline poverty rates and are highly vulnerable to external shocks.

For example, in Somalia, the impact of the Middle East crisis was immediate. Within days of the escalation, fuel prices in the capital Mogadishu more than doubled, exacerbating an already severe malnutrition crisis, while food, water, transport, and humanitarian aid costs rose.

In Ethiopia, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have driven up fuel costs, affecting essential goods. Diesel prices rose by 31%, and fuel costs for humanitarian operations increased by 50–70%, making it even harder to deliver supplies to hard-to-reach areas.

In Nigeria, economic shocks are worsening poverty. Low-income households spend 60–70% of their income on food and transport, so even small price increases erode purchasing power.

Across Bangladesh, rising prices of staple foods such as rice, lentils, cooking oil, vegetables, fish, and chicken are placing an increasing burden on households, with an estimated 1.2 million people at risk of falling into poverty.

Children waiting in line for water in Gaza, where access to safe water is difficult (Palestine, photographed 11 August 2025) © UNICEF/UNI846064/El Baba

The report warns that progress achieved over decades is now being reversed due to the Middle East conflict. Without timely and targeted policy responses, millions of children risk being left further behind, widening the poverty gap and making household recovery even harder. This will also make it more difficult for children to access essential services such as food, healthcare, education, and protection, all of which are critical for their physical and cognitive development.

UNICEF is calling on governments, donor governments, and international financial institutions to protect children from the worst impacts of this crisis. Priority actions include:

Securing domestic and international funding for essential services and supplies for children, including health, nutrition, education, and child protection.

Expanding and maintaining social protection systems such as cash transfers tailored to children’s needs, ensuring continuity of support before phasing out blanket subsidies.

Ensuring children and families can continue to access essential services and goods at affordable and sustainable costs. This includes guaranteeing minimum public spending levels adjusted for inflation.

For countries where debt servicing exceeds spending on health, education, and social protection, expanding fiscal space through temporary debt suspension or restructuring to maintain domestic investment in essential services.

Establishing and implementing shock-responsive systems focused on children, enabling rapid and large-scale delivery of support when shocks occur. This includes international cooperation to mitigate the impact of current and future shocks.