When Does Land Move? — Up to 11x Difference in Sales Probability by Registration Cause, Land Price, and Region. Real Estate Tech TRUSTART Releases Land Market Transaction Prediction Model

TRUSTART Co., Ltd. (Headquarters: Chuo-ku, Tokyo; Representative Director: Yojiro Oe; pronunciation: "Trustart", hereinafter "TRUSTART"), developer and provider of the platform "R.E.DATA (Redata)" that supports digital transformation (DX) in real estate-related operations through AI and real estate big data, has built an AI and machine learning model using over 27 million real estate registration records to predict land transaction probabilities. The company has released the "18th Real Estate Big Data Analysis Report" summarizing the findings.

## Key Topics of This Report

### 1. Significant Differences in Likelihood of Sale by Registration Cause — Consolidation and Name Changes Show 35% Transaction Rate Within 2 Years

Using registration data from 2014 to 2025, the report analyzed the proportion of land sold within two years after registration, categorized by registration cause. For consolidation, changes in registered owner’s name, or land area adjustments, 30–40% of properties were sold within two years. In contrast, registrations due to mortgage establishment, bequests, or gifts remained below 10%.
Additionally, three temporal patterns leading to transactions were identified: ① "Immediate Type" where sale occurs simultaneously with registration, ② "Preparation Type" with sharp increase in the first few months, and ③ "Diffusion Type" with gradual rise over a long period. This indicates that the optimal timing for outreach varies significantly depending on the type of registration.

### 2. Land Priced at Over ¥500,000/m² Has a Transaction Rate Approximately 4.6x Higher Than Land Under ¥50,000/m²

By land price bracket, a clear trend emerges: higher appraised prices correlate with higher transaction rates within two years of registration. The 2-year transaction rate for land under ¥50,000/m² was 4.2%, rising to 19.3% for land priced at ¥500,000/m² or more—approximately 4.6 times higher (※ overall average: 7.64%).
By area size, land between 100–200m² showed the highest transaction rate (8.6%), while large plots over 500m² remained around 6%. This numerically confirms that mid-sized urban land is the most actively traded in the market.

### 3. 2-Year Transaction Rate in Tokyo’s Central 5 Wards Reaches 27.7% — About 6–9x That of Regional Areas

Regional differences in liquidity are striking. Tokyo’s overall 2-year transaction rate is 17.9%, approximately 2.3 times the national average. In the central wards of Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, and Shibuya, the rate reaches 27.7%, 3.6 times the national average. Among designated major cities, Yokohama, Kawasaki, Saitama, and Sapporo rank highest, while regional areas remain between 3–7%. This reaffirms a strong correlation between land liquidity and urban concentration.

### 4. Prediction Accuracy of "Sellable Land" from 27 Million Registration Records — 82% Hit Rate When Focusing on Top 1%

TRUSTART has built an AI prediction model combining numerous variables such as registration history, location, land price, and regional characteristics to calculate a "probability score" for each land parcel being sold within the next two years. When focusing on the top 1% of land identified by the model as having the highest likelihood of sale, the hit rate reaches 82.3%. In other words, about four out of every five properties flagged by the model as "likely to sell" actually entered the market.

※ This data covers only land appearing in TRUSTART’s proprietary registration database and is not a full census

※ Registration information is collected based on publicly available data released by Legal Affairs Bureaus

## Summary

This report analyzes ownership patterns of foreign-addressed owners and corporate owners in subdivided buildings using real estate big data. Foreign-addressed owners are heavily concentrated in major cities like Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka, while corporate ownership is more evenly distributed nationwide. In high-rise buildings within Tokyo, higher floors show increased corporate ownership and address mismatch rates, suggesting many are acquired for investment or asset management purposes.

The full report can be downloaded for free via the link below.

Download the Report (Free)

## Request When Using This Survey Data

- When using these results, please cite: "Survey by TRUSTART Co., Ltd."

- Please refrain from modifying the original data or images when using them.

## About the Corporate and Real Estate Big Data Platform "R.E.DATA"

TRUSTART provides "R.E.DATA", a platform that collects diverse real estate and corporate big data from across Japan in real time, enabling direct outreach to new prospects, profiling of corporations and individuals, and streamlining of daily operations.

"R.E.DATA" is a platform that uniquely collects and digitizes analog real estate and corporate information available only at government offices or on-site—information not found on the internet. Real estate and corporate registration data can be used individually or in combination, supporting direct outreach to new prospects, profiling of corporations and individuals, and operational efficiency. It is widely used across industries including real estate, finance, M&A, consulting, and professional services.