Food and Beverage Price Hikes: 2,566 Items in July, Pace for 20,000 Items Annually; "Middle East Driven" Price Surge to Intensify from Summer, September to Exceed 3,000 Items

Teikoku Databank, Ltd. has analyzed the trends, outlook, and prospects for price increases in food and beverages from July 2026 onwards.

SUMMARY

In July 2026, there were a total of 2,566 food and beverage items with price increases.

For the full year 2026, the total number of items with price increases, based on data available from January to November, reached 14,902. This marks the fifth consecutive year since the survey began in 2022 that the annual total has exceeded 10,000 items, surpassing the lowest figure since 2022, which was 12,520 items in 2024.

Against the backdrop of deteriorating conditions in the Middle East, a surge in price increases for food and beverages is expected to continue from this summer onwards.

[Notes]

The number of items and price increases are based on announcements from each company. Items that were subject to multiple price increases within the year were counted as separate items.

The highest stated price increase rate at the time of announcement was adopted. "Substantive price increases" due to price freezes or reductions in content are also included.

2026 Price Hikes on Pace for 20,000 Items; 25% Attributed to "Middle East Situation"

In July, among 195 major food manufacturers, there were 2,566 price increases for food and beverages, primarily for household products, with an average increase rate of 11% per price hike. This is the first time in three months, since April 2026 (2,838 items), that the number of items with price increases in a single month has exceeded 2,000. The number of items in July alone was the second highest on record, following 3,595 items in 2023. Driven by rising crude oil and naphtha prices due to the worsening Middle East situation, the impact of increased costs for materials such as trays and films, as well as raw materials, became apparent, significantly boosting the number of items with price increases.

When categorized by food sector for the July 2026 price increases, "processed foods" (1,084 items), mainly instant noodles and canned goods, were the most affected. "Bread" (1,078 items) saw widespread price increases from major manufacturers for items like sliced bread, sweet buns, and savory buns.

For the full year 2026, a cumulative total of 14,902 food and beverage items with price increases have been identified (based on data available from January to November). This is the fifth consecutive year since the survey began in 2022 that the annual total has exceeded 10,000 items, and it surpasses the lowest figure since 2022, which was 12,520 items in 2024. Following July, August (1,898 items) is expected to approach 2,000 items in a single month, and September (3,029 items) is projected to be the highest for 2026, exceeding 3,000 items in a single month for the first time in 11 months since October 2025 (3,161 items), with potential for further increases.

When aggregated by food sector, "processed foods" such as frozen foods and pre-cooked rice accounted for the largest share with 5,780 items, exceeding the full-year actual figure for the previous year (4,791 items). "Seasonings" (3,467 items) included products like dashi stock, sauces, and soy sauce. "Alcoholic beverages and drinks" (2,913 items) saw broad price increases for items such as third-category beers, low-malt beers, imported wines, shochu, and sake; however, due to changes in the Liquor Tax Law, some beer products experienced price reductions corresponding to tax cuts. "Raw materials" (606 items) included items like refined sugar in addition to wheat flour products.

Regarding the causes of price increases, deteriorating international situations, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have impacted domestic industries, manifesting as various cost factors, particularly for petroleum-derived resin materials. Price increases attributed to "rising raw material costs" accounted for 92.5%, the highest among all factors, although this trend has been declining since March. "Logistics costs" (71.9%) were affected by rising crude oil prices due to the worsening Middle East situation. "Packaging and materials" (69.8%) saw a 10.5 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by soaring prices of naphtha-derived materials such as trays and containers. Price increases attributed to the Middle East situation ("Middle East situation") accounted for 24.7%.

2026 Outlook: "Middle East Driven" Price Surge to Intensify This Summer, Expected to Continue Through the Year

The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, rapidly heightened by attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, and the resulting supply concerns for domestic petroleum products stemming from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have begun to affect food products. Costs are being passed on to product prices due to significant price increases and shortages of packaging materials like inks, food films, and trays, as well as rising energy costs such as electricity and logistics expenses. Currently, price increases attributed to rising costs due to the worsening Middle East situation account for over 20% of the estimated 15,000 items for the year as of the end of June, and this figure is likely to increase further. The exchange rate has seen the US dollar exceed 160 yen, with the weak yen increasing import costs, while poor harvests of grains like wheat due to extreme weather and persistent inflationary pressures on fresh foods are also concerns for the future. Although issues such as price-fixing cartels for ice cream products have occurred, overall, food products are facing difficulties in absorbing cost increases, and it is expected that the situation of having to raise prices will continue for the time being.

Against this backdrop, a wide-ranging surge in food and beverage price increases is anticipated from this summer onwards. While the cumulative number of items with price increases for the year is expected to exceed 10,000 for the fifth consecutive year, the annual total is projected to land in the 20,000-item range, similar to the previous year.