Is Su Chiao-hui in Trouble? Green Camp Poll Shows Only 0.2% Lead Over Li Sichuan; Huang Shih-hsiu Reveals Fatal Flaw: Damaged by Him

The 2026 New Taipei City mayoral race is heating up, with the latest poll released today (16th) by the New Taiwan Think Tank showing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Su Chiao-hui at 40.2% support, narrowly ahead of Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Li Sichuan at 40.0%—a mere 0.2 percentage point difference. In response, Huang Shih-hsiu, founder of the Nuclear Myth Busters, posted on Facebook stating that Su's slim lead in a green-aligned think tank's poll indicates 'things are getting serious.'

The New Taiwan Think Tank's 'New Taipei Mayoral Election Assessment' survey reveals Su Chiao-hui at 40.2%, Li Sichuan at 40.0%, with less than one percentage point separating them. Another 19.8% of residents said they could not support either candidate. Cross-analysis shows Su's support is stronger in the 4th district (Sanchong, Luzhou), among 20-39 year-olds, those with junior high education, and DPP supporters. Li's support is higher in the 9th district (Xindian, Shenkeng, Shiding, Pinglin, Wulai), among those aged 40 and above, with vocational college education, and KMT or Taiwan People's Party supporters.

Huang Shih-hsiu argues that Su's campaign is in trouble, primarily due to her close alignment with DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Po-yang. He believes Su herself is performing reasonably well, but her team's biggest mistake was tying her campaign to Shen, whose high visibility comes with significant controversy. Huang criticizes Shen for being disconnected from Taipei despite his family's roots as landowners in Wufenpu.

Huang notes that Li Sichuan and Chiang Wan-an's 'joint governance of the twin cities' (Taipei and New Taipei) message resonates naturally with residents. In contrast, Su's comment that 'New Taipei is not someone else's backyard' and Shen's abstract rhetoric—such as 'top-down integration' and 'ecosystem'—have drawn public ridicule.

Huang directly references Beautiful Island Weekly chairman Wu Tzu-chia, who recently criticized Su for becoming Shen's subordinate—a critique Huang finds justified. He sarcastically suggests that if Shen wants to be a bureau chief and Su merely a spokesperson, they should just admit it. He warns that if even the generally mild-mannered Li Sichuan begins criticizing Su as being 'just like Shen Po-yang,' the situation has become truly problematic.

The poll was funded by the Ketagalan Foundation. The survey targeted New Taipei residents aged 20 and above. Conducted via landline telephone interviews using Chunghwa Telecom's directory as the sampling frame, with the last two digits of numbers randomized. A stratified proportional random sampling method was used. The survey was conducted from July 12 to 14, 2026, collecting 1,080 valid responses. At a 95% confidence level, the sampling error is ±2.98 percentage points. Weighting was applied based on Interior Ministry population data for residence, gender, age, and education level.