Latest: Typhoon Noul Could Form as Early as Tomorrow! Latest Forecast Shows Path 'Heading Toward Taiwan' – Weather Page Warns It Might Dissipate Like Haishen

A new tropical depression has formed in the waters southeast of Guam. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a typhoon advisory earlier today (16th), upgrading tropical disturbance 90W located southeast of Guam to a tropical depression. It is expected to potentially develop into the 12th typhoon of the year, Noul (named by North Korea), within the next 24 hours. The weather-focused Facebook page 'Guan Qi Xiang Kan Tian Qi' pointed out that current model forecast paths show extremely high variance, and the situation remains highly uncertain. While currently distant from Taiwan and posing no immediate threat, continued monitoring is advised.

Typhoon Noul could form as early as tomorrow. Here’s the latest path forecast.

According to 'Guan Qi Xiang Kan Tian Qi,' due to the current strength of the subtropical high, Noul is expected to move westward in the short term. However, both AI and traditional models suggest significant development may not occur until 5 to 7 days from now. More notably, environmental conditions may deteriorate in 2 to 3 days, potentially causing Noul to dissipate rapidly—just like Typhoon Haishen.

Regarding track forecasts, ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) show extremely large errors: predictions range from as far south as Hong Kong to as far north as the Ryukyu Islands, with some models even forecasting complete dissipation within two days. On the AI side, for example, the FNV3 model predicts significant development only 7 to 10 days out, with a more southerly track likely heading toward the region from Vietnam to Hong Kong.

'Guan Qi Xiang Kan Tian Qi' described the current forecast situation as having a 'path like scattered flower petals from the heavens,' emphasizing the chaotic state of predictions. It warned that Noul could, like Typhoon Haishen earlier this year, rapidly weaken and dissipate, urging the public to wait a few more days until the situation becomes clearer before making further assessments.

Is Typhoon Noul coming? The weather page suggests it may 'collapse as quickly as Haishen,' with possible paths ranging from Hong Kong to the Ryukyu Islands—or even complete dissipation in two days. For now, it remains far from Taiwan, and the recommendation is to observe the situation over the next few days.