Trump Resumes Bombing of Iran! Former Defense Secretary Warns U.S. Could Fall into Ammunition Black Hole; Only 'One Viable Strategy' to Defeat Tehran

With renewed conflict between the United States and Iran, Middle East tensions have escalated once again, triggering energy crisis alerts. Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced the resumption of full-scale military strikes on Tehran, citing Iran's 'violation of the ceasefire agreement,' aiming to force the Iranian government and Revolutionary Guard to reopen navigation through the Strait of Hormuz via relentless bombing campaigns.

However, this move has drawn skepticism from Mark Esper, who served as Defense Secretary during Trump’s first term. Speaking at a forum, Esper expressed strong reservations, stating that relying solely on aerial bombardment is absolutely insufficient to win a war against Iran. He emphasized that the U.S. must shift to 'economic sanctions' targeting Tehran’s true lifeline. Otherwise, continued airstrikes would drag America into an endless quagmire, risking the complete depletion of its ammunition stockpiles—an embarrassing and strategically dangerous outcome.

Following the collapse of the ceasefire, Brent crude oil prices have surged 16% since early July, nearing $85 per barrel (approximately NT$2,738). Markets predict prices could surpass $100 per barrel if the strait remains blocked. Worse still, the latest U.S. government data shows strategic oil reserves have dropped to their lowest level since 1984, raising fears of soaring domestic gasoline prices and a resurgence of inflation.

On July 12, 2026, Iranian children played by the seaside with massive black smoke from explosions visible in the distance—marking the Strait of Hormuz. (AP)

"Ammunition is being drained by the Middle East war."

The Strait of Hormuz controls nearly 20% of global oil and gas flows. After the U.S. and Israel launched joint military actions against Iran, Tehran deployed numerous sea mines and frequently used drones and missiles to drastically reduce shipping through the strait.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Esper warned against Trump’s plan to intensify bombing to force Iran’s compliance: "I don’t believe for a second that repeating the kind of bombing we saw months ago will bring any real change in Iran. This is pure attrition warfare. The Pentagon has already spent tens of billions of dollars and exhausted years’ worth of advanced munitions stockpiles."

"What is the opportunity cost in readiness, ammunition, and inventory? Strategically, America’s greatest concern remains China. We cannot waste all our elite munitions on a Middle Eastern quagmire that cannot be resolved by airstrikes alone."

On July 11, 2026, in Tehran, a memorial event was held for the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, where a woman held a sign reading 'Kill Trump.' (AP)

Esper argued that the only viable path to force Iran’s submission is a long-term, comprehensive economic blockade and suffocating sanctions backed by international support. The White House faces two options: launching a full-scale military invasion to completely dismantle the Tehran regime from the ground, or implementing economic strangulation. In his view, while the latter demands patience and tolerance for high oil prices, it remains the only executable strategy for the U.S.

He set two "victory indicators" for the U.S.-Iran conflict:

1. The Strait of Hormuz must be restored to full and unrestricted navigation, identical to pre-war conditions.

2. The U.S. and Iran must sign a new nuclear agreement that is 'better and stricter' than the one under the Obama administration.

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who also attended the forum, echoed Esper’s stance. Rice stressed that the U.S. should not rush into signing any questionable nuclear deal but should instead 'let Iran suffer' in its current dire economic state. In her view, most of Iran’s top nuclear scientists have been killed in recent months of conflict, and deep internal divisions have emerged within Tehran. As long as the U.S. maintains economic sanctions, Iran will be incapable of developing or deploying nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future—making military airstrikes entirely unnecessary.