DRAM Leader ChangXin Memory Technologies IPO Subscription Countdown: Allotment Rate Expected to Be 10x Higher Than Average New Listings

China's leading DRAM memory company, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), has officially confirmed the subscription schedule for its initial public offering (IPO) on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market, with subscriptions opening on July 16. The company plans to raise RMB 29.5 billion, issuing approximately 6.688 billion shares, making it one of the largest IPOs in STAR Market history. Market estimates suggest the online allotment rate could reach about ten times that of typical STAR Market IPOs, driving a broad rally in A-share semiconductor stocks, with memory, silicon wafer, and semiconductor equipment stocks all surging.

Fueled by the IPO news, A-share semiconductor stocks surged rapidly on the afternoon of July 9. Silicon wafer manufacturer Yanshi Silicon (688432.SH) and semiconductor equipment supplier Changchuan Technology (300604.SZ) both closed up more than 17%, hitting new highs. Foundry leaders SMIC (688981.SH) and Hua Hong Company (688347.SH) also reached new share price peaks. Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH), which directly holds shares in CXMT, surged strongly to close limit-up at RMB 663.49.

According to the prospectus, CXMT will issue 6.688 billion shares, representing 10% of the total post-issuance share capital before the exercise of the over-allotment option (green shoe mechanism). If the 15% over-allotment option granted to China International Capital Corporation (CICC) is fully exercised, the number of shares issued will increase to approximately 7.691 billion, accounting for about 10.3% of the post-issuance total share capital, with the total post-issuance share capital reaching approximately 66.88 billion shares.

This IPO is jointly underwritten by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and CITIC Construction Investment Securities. The RMB 29.5 billion raised will be allocated to three major projects: RMB 7.5 billion for technological upgrades of memory wafer mass production lines, RMB 13 billion for DRAM technology upgrades, and RMB 9 billion for advanced DRAM technology R&D, with equipment procurement and installation expected to account for the largest portion.

Due to the unprecedented scale of the offering, market attention on the allotment rate is extremely high. Comprehensive estimates from multiple institutions suggest CXMT's online allotment rate will range between 0.30% and 0.70%, with a neutral estimate around 0.45%. In comparison, typical STAR Market IPOs have historically had allotment rates of only 0.02% to 0.05%, meaning CXMT's rate could be nearly ten times higher, even surpassing SMIC's listing allotment level.

Analysts note that if the number of subscribing accounts remains relatively low, the allotment rate could approach 0.65% to 0.70%. However, if 4.5 million to 5 million retail investors participate, it could drop to around 0.3%. Under current rules, investors making a maximum subscription need to hold approximately RMB 6 million in Shanghai market market value, and large accounts with over RMB 1 million could theoretically achieve an allotment probability exceeding 50%.

The market is also closely watching CXMT's valuation post-listing. Currently, A-share memory-related companies show significant P/E ratio differences. As of July 8, Zhaoyi Innovation's P/E ratio (TTM) was about 147.24x, Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ) about 167.67x, and Montage Technology (688008.SH) about 117.94x. Memory module manufacturers Biwin Storage (688525.SH) and Jiangbo Long (301308.SZ) were at about 47.31x and 46.12x, respectively. Dongxin Shares (688110.SH), due to a low profit base, had a P/E ratio as high as 27,325.83x, which the market generally considers non-representative.

Unlike the above companies, CXMT is currently China's only IDM (integrated device manufacturer) achieving large-scale DRAM mass production, covering the entire process from chip design, wafer fabrication, to packaging and testing, and is the core enterprise in China's DRAM industrial chain.

The company currently operates three 12-inch DRAM wafer fabs in Hefei and Beijing, ranking first in China and fourth globally in production capacity, and has completed mass production across multiple process platforms through a 'leapfrog development' strategy.

In terms of products, CXMT has established a complete DDR and LPDDR product line, including DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X, with applications spanning AI servers, personal computers, smartphones, and smart cars.

On the customer side, the company has already entered the supply chains of major Chinese tech enterprises such as Alibaba Cloud, ByteDance, Tencent, Lenovo, Xiaomi, Transsion, Honor, OPPO, and vivo.

CXMT's IPO comes as the global memory industry enters a new cycle of prosperity. Benefiting from rapidly growing demand for AI servers, high-performance computing (HPC), and large language models, DRAM prices have been continuously rising since the second half of 2025, with second-quarter 2024 prices increasing by over 200%, boosting both operations and stock prices of major global memory manufacturers.

However, since mid-to-late June, global memory stocks have begun to correct. Overseas memory leaders' share prices have retreated about 30% from their peaks, and A-share memory stocks have also pulled back, with Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, and Biwin Storage falling more than 20% from their highs, and market trading enthusiasm has clearly cooled.

The market believes this correction is mainly due to two factors: first, a market misunderstanding that Meta Platforms (META-US) might sell its AI computing assets, raising concerns about a slowdown in AI data center capital expenditure and impacting memory demand; second, the memory sector had accumulated excessive gains, and with high valuations and crowded positions, profit-taking selling pressure emerged.

Looking ahead, institutions believe the market will continue to focus on tech companies' Q2 earnings and whether AI demand will sustain DRAM price increases, while also monitoring how global liquidity changes affect high-valuation tech stocks.

A TMT industry analyst pointed out that CXMT's core business gross margin turned positive in 2025, and high-margin products like DDR5, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X are rapidly scaling up. Driven by AI demand, the company still has room for profit growth. He believes the long-term trend of AI driving computing demand remains unchanged, and the recent pullback is merely a normal correction after a price surge.

A private equity fund investment director in Shanghai also stated that the recent sector correction could actually help CXMT complete its IPO at a more reasonable valuation. As the only company in China with DRAM IDM mass production capability, this listing will not only be a significant milestone for the A-share semiconductor market, but its pricing and post-listing performance will also become an important indicator for observing China's memory industry valuation and market sentiment.