Thinner Prices 'Up 75%' Due to Middle East Tensions. Future Predictions and Countermeasures for the Auto Body Painting Industry Caused by Abnormal Surges
Ikeuchi Co., Ltd. has released a report predicting that naphtha shortages due to Middle East tensions will cause abnormal surges in thinner prices (e.g., up 75%). This will lead to higher new car prices, increased bankruptcies of repair shops, and make 'partial painting' essential for consumers to reduce costs.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: April 11, 2026 at 04:13
- 🔍 Collected: April 11, 2026 at 00:20
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 20, 2026 at 06:12 (221h 51m after Collected)
Ikeuchi Co., Ltd. (Headquarters: Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Representative Director and President: Miyu Ikeuchi, hereinafter "our company"), which handles the auto body repair and painting business, is publishing an analytical report on the impact and future trends of the "abnormal surge in paint thinner prices" caused by the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, on the automotive and auto body painting industries.
From the perspective of our company, which faces numerous vehicles on site every day and boasts top-class construction volumes in the industry, we have summarized our thoughts on the challenges facing the industry as a whole and the changes that consumers (drivers) should be aware of in the future.
## ■ Escalation of Middle East Tensions and the Chain of Naphtha Shortages
As of 2026, due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including the area around Iran, uncertainty has arisen in the marine transportation routes for crude oil. Triggered by this, the procurement of "naphtha" (crude gasoline), which is made by refining crude oil, has fallen into a difficult situation globally.
Naphtha is the basic raw material for petrochemical products and the main raw material for paints and thinners, which are essential for automobile painting. Due to this naphtha shortage, major domestic paint manufacturers have resorted to unprecedented scale price increases and supply restrictions (allocation). Historic price surges, such as a 75% price increase for thinner products by Nippon Paint and a price increase of over 50% by Kansai Paint, are currently hitting the market directly.
## ■ The "Inseparable Relationship" Between the Auto Body Painting Industry and Thinner, and Market Reports
In automobile body painting, thinner is an absolute necessity that cannot be omitted. Its uses are mainly divided into the following two:
- **Dilution Thinner:** Mixed with paint to adjust its viscosity so it can be beautifully sprayed onto the car body.
- **Cleaning Thinner:** Used to wash off paint adhering to precision equipment such as spray guns after painting is completed.
Currently, there are reports in the market of realities such as "thinner that was usually traded at under 4,000 yen per can has jumped to 16,000 yen," and a substantial cost increase far exceeding the apparent price increase rate (such as 75%) is pressuring the workplace.
## ■ What Will Happen to the Automotive and Auto Body Painting Industries in the Future? (Our Inference)
In response to such an abnormal situation, it is inferred that the following changes will come to the automobile-related industries in the future.
① Spillover to New Car Prices
The soaring prices of paint and thinner affect not only the repair site but also the automobile manufacturing line. In the future, there is a possibility that the pressure to further increase the vehicle body price of new cars will strengthen.
② Elimination of Repairers and Acceleration of "Bankruptcy Risk"
According to data from Tokyo Shoko Research, bankruptcies in the painting construction business in fiscal 2025 increased by 22.2% from the previous year to 143 cases, hitting a record high for the past 20 years and the highest level in 23 years. In response to the abnormal soaring of material costs due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, small and medium-sized factories that "cannot pass on prices (price increases)" or "cannot work because materials are unavailable due to supply restrictions" will appear one after another, and it is thought that consolidation and business closures within the industry will accelerate further.
③ Consumers' Defense Measure: The Overwhelming Cost Merit of "Partial Painting"
As material costs soar, methods of painting an entire single panel, or full painting (all pen), etc., use a large amount of paint and thinner, so there is a possibility that prices will jump higher than ever before.
In the coming era, the most effective means for consumers to keep repair costs down is
From the perspective of our company, which faces numerous vehicles on site every day and boasts top-class construction volumes in the industry, we have summarized our thoughts on the challenges facing the industry as a whole and the changes that consumers (drivers) should be aware of in the future.
## ■ Escalation of Middle East Tensions and the Chain of Naphtha Shortages
As of 2026, due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including the area around Iran, uncertainty has arisen in the marine transportation routes for crude oil. Triggered by this, the procurement of "naphtha" (crude gasoline), which is made by refining crude oil, has fallen into a difficult situation globally.
Naphtha is the basic raw material for petrochemical products and the main raw material for paints and thinners, which are essential for automobile painting. Due to this naphtha shortage, major domestic paint manufacturers have resorted to unprecedented scale price increases and supply restrictions (allocation). Historic price surges, such as a 75% price increase for thinner products by Nippon Paint and a price increase of over 50% by Kansai Paint, are currently hitting the market directly.
## ■ The "Inseparable Relationship" Between the Auto Body Painting Industry and Thinner, and Market Reports
In automobile body painting, thinner is an absolute necessity that cannot be omitted. Its uses are mainly divided into the following two:
- **Dilution Thinner:** Mixed with paint to adjust its viscosity so it can be beautifully sprayed onto the car body.
- **Cleaning Thinner:** Used to wash off paint adhering to precision equipment such as spray guns after painting is completed.
Currently, there are reports in the market of realities such as "thinner that was usually traded at under 4,000 yen per can has jumped to 16,000 yen," and a substantial cost increase far exceeding the apparent price increase rate (such as 75%) is pressuring the workplace.
## ■ What Will Happen to the Automotive and Auto Body Painting Industries in the Future? (Our Inference)
In response to such an abnormal situation, it is inferred that the following changes will come to the automobile-related industries in the future.
① Spillover to New Car Prices
The soaring prices of paint and thinner affect not only the repair site but also the automobile manufacturing line. In the future, there is a possibility that the pressure to further increase the vehicle body price of new cars will strengthen.
② Elimination of Repairers and Acceleration of "Bankruptcy Risk"
According to data from Tokyo Shoko Research, bankruptcies in the painting construction business in fiscal 2025 increased by 22.2% from the previous year to 143 cases, hitting a record high for the past 20 years and the highest level in 23 years. In response to the abnormal soaring of material costs due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, small and medium-sized factories that "cannot pass on prices (price increases)" or "cannot work because materials are unavailable due to supply restrictions" will appear one after another, and it is thought that consolidation and business closures within the industry will accelerate further.
③ Consumers' Defense Measure: The Overwhelming Cost Merit of "Partial Painting"
As material costs soar, methods of painting an entire single panel, or full painting (all pen), etc., use a large amount of paint and thinner, so there is a possibility that prices will jump higher than ever before.
In the coming era, the most effective means for consumers to keep repair costs down is
FAQ
Why are the costs of car repair and painting soaring?
Due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East, there is a global shortage of 'naphtha', which is a raw material for paints and thinners, causing manufacturers to implement historic price hikes.
How is the surge in thinner prices affecting repair shops?
The actual procurement costs have skyrocketed several times, leading to a sharp increase in bankruptcies among small and medium-sized painting contractors (at the highest level in the past 20 years), who cannot pass on the increased costs.
What can consumers do to reduce the cost of car repairs?
The most effective cost-saving measure is to avoid full painting, which uses a large amount of paint, and opt for 'partial painting', which only repairs the damaged areas.