May 20: Impacts of the US-Iran War on the International Economy, Financial Markets, and Livelihoods

Key news on the US-Iran War, Central Message (CNA Taipei, May 20, 종합外電報導) The United Nations has downgraded its global economic growth forecast, stating that the Middle East crisis is reigniting inflationary pressures and exacerbating global economic uncertainty. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun confirmed that a South Korean oil tanker is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the first South Korean vessel to transit the strategic waterway since the war began.

Blaming the Middle East Crisis, UN Downgrades Global 2026 Growth Forecast to 2.5% The global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2026 is projected to be 2.5%, lower than the 3.0% expected for 2025 and 0.2 percentage points below the forecast from January of this year, a level far below pre-COVID-19 pandemic standards. The hardest-hit region is West Asia, where the economic growth rate is projected to plummet from 3.6% to 1.4% due to severe damage to infrastructure, trade, and tourism.

South Korean Tanker Passes Through Strait of Hormuz, First Since Iran War Began South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun stated that the government has completed negotiations with Iranian authorities, allowing a South Korean oil tanker to set sail yesterday. It is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz with great caution. He noted that the tanker is carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil. Data from the ship-tracking website MarineTraffic shows the South Korean-flagged tanker, Universal Winner, is currently located east of the Strait of Hormuz, near the entrance to the Gulf of Oman. The vessel departed from Mina Al Ahmadi, Kuwait, and is heading to Ulsan in southeastern South Korea.

Financial Times: US Blockade is Effective, Iranian Oil Piles Up in Aging Tankers in the Gulf Approximately 39 tankers carrying Iranian oil and petrochemical products are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, an increase from 29 before the US blockade took effect on April 13. A large number of ships are anchored near Iran's Kharg Island oil export terminal. Another 13 suspected tankers are anchored off the coast of Iran's Chabahar Port in the Gulf of Oman, which is east of the Strait of Hormuz and falls within the theoretical blockade line of the US Navy.