May 17: Impacts of US-Iran War on International Economy, Financial Markets, and Livelihoods

Central News Agency (CNA, Taipei, 17th, Comprehensive Foreign Report) — Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted cargo transport and driven up energy costs, widening India's trade deficit in April. While soaring oil prices have affected U.S. President Trump's approval ratings, some Colorado residents still support him, preferring to endure temporarily high oil prices over Iran possessing nuclear weapons. ● Middle East Conflict Impact: India's April Trade Deficit Widens Beyond Expectations. India's trade deficit in April expanded to $28.38 billion (approx. NT$896.1 billion), higher than the $26.5 billion estimated by economists. While exports rose, imports also surged from $59.59 billion in March to $71.94 billion in April, widening the trade deficit. India is the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer, relying on overseas suppliers for over 80% of its crude oil demand and about 60% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) demand, with a significant portion coming from the Middle East. As the conflict in the Middle East escalates and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, global crude oil prices have been climbing since February, at one point exceeding $120 per barrel, raising concerns in India about inflation, economic growth, and external balance. ● High Oil Prices Cause Trump's Popularity to Fall; Colorado Voters Still Support Him, Oppose a Nuclear Iran. Across the United States, Trump's political fortunes appear to be declining. His war against Iran has caused nationwide gasoline prices to surpass $4.5 per gallon. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll last month, nearly 80% of Americans believe the president is responsible for the rise in oil prices. However, in the small agricultural town of Wiggins, Colorado, with a population of only 1,400, most residents remain ardent supporters of Trump. In the nearby Morgan County, Trump won the 2024 election by a 49-percentage-point margin over his rival. Along Colorado State Highway 52, flanked mostly by barns, ranches, and oil wells, Agence France-Presse interviewed more than 20 Trump supporters, who all expressed their backing for the president, stating they would rather suffer high oil prices than see Iran possess nuclear weapons. ● US Does Not Extend Russian Oil Waiver, India's Largest Buyer to Be Hit Hardest. In response to soaring oil prices and supply shortages caused by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. previously extended a sanctions waiver for one month, allowing countries like India to purchase Russian seaborne oil. With the deadline set to expire on the 16th, the Trump administration has let the waiver lapse. Two heavyweight Democratic senators, Jeanne Shaheen and Elizabeth Warren, urged the Trump administration not to extend the waiver. They pointed out that the policy was providing funds for Russia to finance its war against Ukraine, with no evidence that it lowered fuel costs for American consumers. India is the largest buyer of Russian seaborone crude oil, and its purchases in April and May approached historical highs after the previous waiver was implemented.