Geopolitics Behind UAE's OPEC Withdrawal: Global Impact at a Glance
The United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ alliance on May 1st. This move is driven by UAE's desire to maximize national interests by shedding production constraints, and it is expected to significantly impact global oil markets, geopolitics, and the future of OPEC.
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- 📰 Published: April 29, 2026 at 12:38
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Reuters reported that in the 1960s, the global oil market was dominated by a group of powerful Western oil companies known as the "Seven Sisters." Oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia established the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, in 1960 to coordinate oil policies and ensure fair and stable prices. The UAE subsequently joined in 1967.
In the 1970s, more than half of global crude oil was produced by OPEC members. However, with the rise of non-OPEC supply sources such as the North Sea oil and gas fields, and continuous production increases by competitors like the United States, OPEC's market share gradually declined, remaining between 30% and 40%.
Currently, OPEC has 12 member countries, mainly from the Middle East, including: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (to withdraw on May 1st), Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Al-Jazeera reported that although the UAE cited "national interests" as the reason for its withdrawal from OPEC, an official revealed that this move has been brewing for a long time. The UAE's daily crude oil production capacity is about 4.8 million barrels. Despite having significant room for increased production, it is limited by OPEC, which only allows it to retain surplus capacity for market adjustment.
The UAE is the fourth country to withdraw from OPEC in recent years, and the largest producer among them. Angola joined OPEC in 2007 but withdrew in early 2024 due to dissatisfaction with production allocations; Ecuador withdrew in 2020; and Qatar withdrew in 2019.
BBC News reported that the UAE's withdrawal could be interpreted as a signal of "decreasing global reliance on oil." As China transitions to electric vehicles, trucks, and trains, its daily oil demand has decreased by 1 million barrels. As this trend spreads, global oil demand may peak.
Wechsler pointed out that after withdrawing from OPEC, the UAE will no longer be subject to production limits. In addition to potentially causing a slight decline in global oil prices, increased production will also help the UAE improve relations with oil-importing partners like China. Especially considering the economic damage caused by the US-Iran war, "maximizing energy revenue now is undoubtedly extremely attractive."
Delrenz predicted that, considering the UAE's spare capacity, its withdrawal from OPEC is likely to strengthen relations between the UAE and the United States, "especially regarding the management of strategic petroleum reserves."
Compared to other countries, OPEC's outlook is completely different. Delrenz warned that as spare capacity becomes concentrated in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, OPEC will become increasingly constrained in exerting substantial market influence.
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency, London, 28th, Comprehensive foreign reports) The United Arab Emirates today announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partner alliance OPEC+ on May 1st. What is OPEC, what influence does it hold, and what impacts will the UAE's withdrawal bring? This article will help you understand it all at once.
Reuters reported that in the 1960s, the global oil market was dominated by a group of powerful Western oil companies known as the "Seven Sisters." Oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia established the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, in 1960 to coordinate oil policies and ensure fair and stable prices. The UAE subsequently joined in 1967.
In the 1970s, more than half of global crude oil was produced by OPEC members. However, with the rise of non-OPEC supply sources such as the North Sea oil and gas fields, and continuous production increases by competitors like the United States, OPEC's market share gradually declined, remaining between 30% and 40%.
To expand its influence, OPEC formed OPEC+ in 2016 by allying with 10 non-member countries, including Russia. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC+ produced nearly 50% of the world's oil and liquid fuels last year. However, in March this year, about a month after the outbreak of the US-Iran war, OPEC+ production had dropped to 44%.
Currently, OPEC has 12 member countries, mainly from the Middle East, including: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (to withdraw on May 1st), Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Non-OPEC members of OPEC+ include: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan, and Brazil (to join in early 2025).
Al-Jazeera reported that although the UAE cited "national interests" as the reason for its withdrawal from OPEC, an official revealed that this move has been brewing for a long time. The UAE's daily crude oil production capacity is about 4.8 million barrels. Despite having significant room for increased production, it is limited by OPEC, which only allows it to retain surplus capacity for market adjustment.
Furthermore, the UAE has continued to expand its influence in the Middle East and Africa, and deepen its relations with the United States and Israel, which has also led to its growing estrangement from OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia.
William Wechsler, a research fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington D.C. think tank, pointed out that from the UAE's perspective, its national interests have diverged from those of OPEC and other OPEC+ members, including Russia, and conflicts are expected to intensify in the future.
The UAE is the fourth country to withdraw from OPEC in recent years, and the largest producer among them. Angola joined OPEC in 2007 but withdrew in early 2024 due to dissatisfaction with production allocations; Ecuador withdrew in 2020; and Qatar withdrew in 2019.
BBC News reported that the UAE's withdrawal could be interpreted as a signal of "decreasing global reliance on oil." As China transitions to electric vehicles, trucks, and trains, its daily oil demand has decreased by 1 million barrels. As this trend spreads, global oil demand may peak.
From this, it is entirely reasonable to earn as much money as possible from oil reserves before oil demand collapses.
Wechsler pointed out that after withdrawing from OPEC, the UAE will no longer be subject to production limits. In addition to potentially causing a slight decline in global oil prices, increased production will also help the UAE improve relations with oil-importing partners like China. Especially considering the economic damage caused by the US-Iran war, "maximizing energy revenue now is undoubtedly extremely attractive."
In the 1970s, more than half of global crude oil was produced by OPEC members. However, with the rise of non-OPEC supply sources such as the North Sea oil and gas fields, and continuous production increases by competitors like the United States, OPEC's market share gradually declined, remaining between 30% and 40%.
Currently, OPEC has 12 member countries, mainly from the Middle East, including: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (to withdraw on May 1st), Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Al-Jazeera reported that although the UAE cited "national interests" as the reason for its withdrawal from OPEC, an official revealed that this move has been brewing for a long time. The UAE's daily crude oil production capacity is about 4.8 million barrels. Despite having significant room for increased production, it is limited by OPEC, which only allows it to retain surplus capacity for market adjustment.
The UAE is the fourth country to withdraw from OPEC in recent years, and the largest producer among them. Angola joined OPEC in 2007 but withdrew in early 2024 due to dissatisfaction with production allocations; Ecuador withdrew in 2020; and Qatar withdrew in 2019.
BBC News reported that the UAE's withdrawal could be interpreted as a signal of "decreasing global reliance on oil." As China transitions to electric vehicles, trucks, and trains, its daily oil demand has decreased by 1 million barrels. As this trend spreads, global oil demand may peak.
Wechsler pointed out that after withdrawing from OPEC, the UAE will no longer be subject to production limits. In addition to potentially causing a slight decline in global oil prices, increased production will also help the UAE improve relations with oil-importing partners like China. Especially considering the economic damage caused by the US-Iran war, "maximizing energy revenue now is undoubtedly extremely attractive."
Delrenz predicted that, considering the UAE's spare capacity, its withdrawal from OPEC is likely to strengthen relations between the UAE and the United States, "especially regarding the management of strategic petroleum reserves."
Compared to other countries, OPEC's outlook is completely different. Delrenz warned that as spare capacity becomes concentrated in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, OPEC will become increasingly constrained in exerting substantial market influence.
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency, London, 28th, Comprehensive foreign reports) The United Arab Emirates today announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partner alliance OPEC+ on May 1st. What is OPEC, what influence does it hold, and what impacts will the UAE's withdrawal bring? This article will help you understand it all at once.
Reuters reported that in the 1960s, the global oil market was dominated by a group of powerful Western oil companies known as the "Seven Sisters." Oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia established the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, in 1960 to coordinate oil policies and ensure fair and stable prices. The UAE subsequently joined in 1967.
In the 1970s, more than half of global crude oil was produced by OPEC members. However, with the rise of non-OPEC supply sources such as the North Sea oil and gas fields, and continuous production increases by competitors like the United States, OPEC's market share gradually declined, remaining between 30% and 40%.
To expand its influence, OPEC formed OPEC+ in 2016 by allying with 10 non-member countries, including Russia. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC+ produced nearly 50% of the world's oil and liquid fuels last year. However, in March this year, about a month after the outbreak of the US-Iran war, OPEC+ production had dropped to 44%.
Currently, OPEC has 12 member countries, mainly from the Middle East, including: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (to withdraw on May 1st), Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Venezuela.
Non-OPEC members of OPEC+ include: Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan, Sudan, and Brazil (to join in early 2025).
Al-Jazeera reported that although the UAE cited "national interests" as the reason for its withdrawal from OPEC, an official revealed that this move has been brewing for a long time. The UAE's daily crude oil production capacity is about 4.8 million barrels. Despite having significant room for increased production, it is limited by OPEC, which only allows it to retain surplus capacity for market adjustment.
Furthermore, the UAE has continued to expand its influence in the Middle East and Africa, and deepen its relations with the United States and Israel, which has also led to its growing estrangement from OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia.
William Wechsler, a research fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington D.C. think tank, pointed out that from the UAE's perspective, its national interests have diverged from those of OPEC and other OPEC+ members, including Russia, and conflicts are expected to intensify in the future.
The UAE is the fourth country to withdraw from OPEC in recent years, and the largest producer among them. Angola joined OPEC in 2007 but withdrew in early 2024 due to dissatisfaction with production allocations; Ecuador withdrew in 2020; and Qatar withdrew in 2019.
BBC News reported that the UAE's withdrawal could be interpreted as a signal of "decreasing global reliance on oil." As China transitions to electric vehicles, trucks, and trains, its daily oil demand has decreased by 1 million barrels. As this trend spreads, global oil demand may peak.
From this, it is entirely reasonable to earn as much money as possible from oil reserves before oil demand collapses.
Wechsler pointed out that after withdrawing from OPEC, the UAE will no longer be subject to production limits. In addition to potentially causing a slight decline in global oil prices, increased production will also help the UAE improve relations with oil-importing partners like China. Especially considering the economic damage caused by the US-Iran war, "maximizing energy revenue now is undoubtedly extremely attractive."