US-Iran War: Chang Wu-yueh Says China's Impact 'Not as Big as Imagined'

The US-Iran conflict's impact on international oil prices was discussed by scholar Chang Wu-yueh at the North-West Forum, who stated that China's impact is 'not as big as imagined.' He pointed out that China's primary oil import source is Russia, and it has long-term strategies for energy and food security, currently observing the war to learn lessons. At the North-West Forum 'Global Political and Economic Impact of US-Iran Middle East Conflict' held today at the NTU Alumni Center, several scholars were present. Chang Wu-yueh, Director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Tamkang University, stated that 2026 is a critical year for US-China competition. The US's approach towards China is relatively mild, not involving continuous tariff hikes as in 2025, but rather indirect methods to isolate and combat China, such as targeting Venezuela and Iran, the world's first and third-largest oil reserve holders, respectively. These two countries are also the most pro-China and anti-US in the region. Chang Wu-yueh commented that the US's calculation was to control 60% to 70% of global petrochemical energy, but unexpectedly, China's impact has been 'not as big as imagined.' Although China is the world's largest energy importer, its main energy sources come from Russia, unaffected by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Furthermore, China has long-term energy security plans and has already stored nearly 1.3 billion barrels of oil. He pointed out that another security crisis arising from the Middle East war is 'food security,' as urea and nitrogen fertilizers require transit through the Middle East. However, China's nitrogen fertilizer self-sufficiency rate is about 110%, and phosphate fertilizer is over 95%, resulting in less impact compared to agricultural-dominant countries like India and Pakistan. Chang Wu-yueh quoted Napoleon's famous saying to describe China's perspective on the current US-Iran war: 'Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.' He noted that many US allies, such as Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and even the most friendly United Kingdom, believe the war is irrelevant to them but have suffered the most significant consequences, leading European countries to adopt different strategies. He added that the US-Iran war may not necessarily benefit China, as energy, systemic finance, oil, and trade issues still have a considerable impact on China. However, 'between two advantages, choose the greater; between two disadvantages, choose the lesser.' China likely believes that the US's internal and external impacts are comparable to China's. Regarding China's view on Iran, Chang Wu-yueh mentioned that China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated during this year's National People's Congress that China has three major diplomatic priorities this year: first, dialogue between US and Chinese leaders; second, the APEC meeting in Shenzhen; and third, the China-Arab States Summit convened this year. Therefore, he believes China is unwilling to heavily support Iran and offend all Arab countries. Chang Wu-yueh further analyzed that Beijing is observing US strategic tactics against Venezuela and Iran from the perspective of a 'learning party.' The commonalities of these countries are: firstly, they are economically less developed; secondly, there is internal public dissatisfaction, with occasional protests; thirdly, their high-level officials have been infiltrated. China is learning from these experiences to establish its national strategic resolve. (Editor: Yang Sheng-ru) 1150414