Trump Blocks Strait of Hormuz, Energy-Dependent Asian Economies May Face Pressure
US President Trump ordered the Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which could worsen the economic crisis for energy-dependent Asian economies. Analysts at Bloomberg Economics predict this will lead to higher oil prices, slower economic growth, and increased inflation. The US Central Command announced that it would blockade all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports.
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- 📰 Published: April 13, 2026 at 17:28
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US-Iran War Key News
Central News
(Central News Agency Washington 12th Comprehensive Foreign Report) US President Trump's order for the Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz could further worsen the economic crisis facing energy-dependent Asian economies, including US allies in the region and China.
Bloomberg Economics analysts, including Jennifer Welch, stated: "For the global economy and markets, the latest developments once again shift the focus to downside risks, meaning higher oil prices, a greater hit to economic growth, and rising inflation."
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the US military will implement a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports starting at 10:00 AM EDT on the 13th (10:00 PM Taiwan time).
Trump announced the blockade plan hours after direct talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan failed to reach an agreement.
More than 80% of the energy for Asian countries, including US allies Japan and South Korea, is often transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian governments are struggling to arrange alternative oil and natural gas supplies and are implementing measures to reduce energy use, such as setting air conditioners to higher temperatures, while also introducing policies to mitigate the impact on consumers and businesses.
Oil tankers related to Iran, as well as vessels from other countries including China, have always sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, and these shipments will be targeted by the blockade. Beijing may pressure Washington to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before Trump's expected visit to China in mid-May. Bloomberg Economics analysts pointed out that China may use its dominant position in key mineral resources as leverage if necessary.
The problem is not limited to energy. Deborah Elms, Director of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, stated that downstream industries, from fertilizers and packaging to even fabric supplies, will be impacted by this blockade.
She stated: "This means that this disruption is not a short-term problem, but an issue that may persist for a long time; unfortunately, especially for Asia, there are not many alternatives."
In another report, Bloomberg presented three scenario analyses for war and the global economy.
In the baseline scenario, where the conflict continues at a lower intensity, international oil prices are expected to average $105 per barrel in the second quarter and fall to $85 in the fourth quarter. In this scenario, global GDP is estimated to grow by 2.9% this year, with an inflation rate of 4.2% in the fourth quarter.
If the war escalates and the Strait of Hormuz is closed for several months, oil prices could soar to $170. In this scenario, global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.2%, and inflation will climb to 5.4% by the end of the year. If a long-term ceasefire is reached or the Iranian regime collapses, the Strait of Hormuz may reopen faster, and oil prices will return to pre-US-Iran war levels, with global growth estimated at 3.1% and inflation falling to 3.7%.
Analysts stated: "The latest developments still do not clearly indicate which scenario is most likely. We will continue to observe the evolution of the situation, but for now, our baseline scenario largely aligns with the overall trend, although the details are still changing." (Translator: Cheng Shih-yun / Editor: Hung Chi-yuan) 1150413
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Central News
(Central News Agency Washington 12th Comprehensive Foreign Report) US President Trump's order for the Navy to blockade the Strait of Hormuz could further worsen the economic crisis facing energy-dependent Asian economies, including US allies in the region and China.
Bloomberg Economics analysts, including Jennifer Welch, stated: "For the global economy and markets, the latest developments once again shift the focus to downside risks, meaning higher oil prices, a greater hit to economic growth, and rising inflation."
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the US military will implement a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports starting at 10:00 AM EDT on the 13th (10:00 PM Taiwan time).
Trump announced the blockade plan hours after direct talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan failed to reach an agreement.
More than 80% of the energy for Asian countries, including US allies Japan and South Korea, is often transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian governments are struggling to arrange alternative oil and natural gas supplies and are implementing measures to reduce energy use, such as setting air conditioners to higher temperatures, while also introducing policies to mitigate the impact on consumers and businesses.
Oil tankers related to Iran, as well as vessels from other countries including China, have always sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, and these shipments will be targeted by the blockade. Beijing may pressure Washington to lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz before Trump's expected visit to China in mid-May. Bloomberg Economics analysts pointed out that China may use its dominant position in key mineral resources as leverage if necessary.
The problem is not limited to energy. Deborah Elms, Director of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, stated that downstream industries, from fertilizers and packaging to even fabric supplies, will be impacted by this blockade.
She stated: "This means that this disruption is not a short-term problem, but an issue that may persist for a long time; unfortunately, especially for Asia, there are not many alternatives."
In another report, Bloomberg presented three scenario analyses for war and the global economy.
In the baseline scenario, where the conflict continues at a lower intensity, international oil prices are expected to average $105 per barrel in the second quarter and fall to $85 in the fourth quarter. In this scenario, global GDP is estimated to grow by 2.9% this year, with an inflation rate of 4.2% in the fourth quarter.
If the war escalates and the Strait of Hormuz is closed for several months, oil prices could soar to $170. In this scenario, global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.2%, and inflation will climb to 5.4% by the end of the year. If a long-term ceasefire is reached or the Iranian regime collapses, the Strait of Hormuz may reopen faster, and oil prices will return to pre-US-Iran war levels, with global growth estimated at 3.1% and inflation falling to 3.7%.
Analysts stated: "The latest developments still do not clearly indicate which scenario is most likely. We will continue to observe the evolution of the situation, but for now, our baseline scenario largely aligns with the overall trend, although the details are still changing." (Translator: Cheng Shih-yun / Editor: Hung Chi-yuan) 1150413
Choose to stand with the facts, every sponsorship you make is a force to protect press freedom
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The text, pictures and audio-visuals of this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.