Analysis: Unresolved Strait of Hormuz Crisis Lowers Trump's May Visit to China

U.S. President Donald Trump postponed his China visit to May to address the war with Iran. Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations failed, leading to a U.S. naval blockade. Analysts believe that if the Strait of Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, the possibility of Trump's May visit to China will certainly decrease, putting China in a dilemma. President Trump ordered a blockade of Iranian ports starting 10:00 AM ET on the 13th, creating a 'dual blockade' situation where the Iranian military controls the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. military restricts Iranian vessel access. President Trump's visit to China is postponed to May 14-15, during which he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The South China Morning Post reported on the 13th that Jin Liangxiang, a senior researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, stated that a 'dual blockade' would lead to the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which would undoubtedly harm China's significant interests in the region. This could affect China's supply chain, energy security, and trade with Gulf countries, which are important export markets for China. Jin also stated that whether the Trump-Xi meeting takes place depends on U.S. progress in the Iran crisis. If the Strait of Hormuz crisis is not resolved, the possibility of Trump's May visit will decrease. However, Trump's domestic considerations for this visit are mainly influenced by U.S.-China trade relations and pressure from the U.S. midterm elections. Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, a Washington-based consulting firm specializing in Middle East issues, stated that the U.S. naval blockade forces Beijing into a dilemma: the longer the blockade lasts, the harder it will be for China to maintain strategic ambiguity between the U.S. and Iran. Marks stated that Iran wants to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump wants to cut off Iran's crude oil exports through the strait and its collection of transit fees. If Iran normalizes the collection of transit fees, it would permanently reshape the economics of Gulf energy transportation and provide Iran with an independent source of income beyond oil exports. Marks stated that if the U.S. can fulfill its promise to allow non-Iranian vessels, including Chinese ships, to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. can portray itself as a defender of freedom of navigation. Marks also stated that another situation to watch is whether ships carrying Iranian oil and flying the Chinese flag will be intercepted. China has been accused of using a shadow fleet and paying in RMB to obtain Iranian oil, thereby circumventing U.S. sanctions. Marks stated that although Beijing has repeatedly denied this, its shadow fleet is now forced to operate within the U.S. military's enforcement area, greatly increasing the possibility of Chinese ships being detained, which could trigger a 'conflict' before the Trump-Xi meeting. Marks also stated that Trump's current naval blockade, which threatens China's energy interests, may be a tactic for negotiations with Xi Jinping. Marks stated that Trump wants to hold onto things China needs in exchange for China's concessions on rare earths, trade, and political cooperation with Iran. However, China may interpret this as coercion, narrowing diplomatic space. Marks stated that both the U.S. and China need to find ways to separate the Iran conflict to avoid undermining their trade truce and the stable situation they have been working to establish since the Busan summit last October.