Ministry of Agriculture: Without significant rainfall, Wanli Stream landslide lake will not overflow within 10 days

(Central News Agency, Reporter Wang Shu-fen, Taipei, July 1) The Ministry of Agriculture convened an "Emergency Response Team Working Meeting for Wanli Stream Landslide Lake Disaster" this afternoon. The Ministry of Agriculture stated that the height of the landslide lake's dam has increased, and its storage capacity has been revised upwards. Under conditions without significant rainfall, it is estimated that it will not be full and overflow within 10 days.

The Ministry of Agriculture issued a press release stating that the research team from National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, commissioned by the Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency, analyzed the latest aerial photography data of the landslide lake completed on June 30 by the Aerial Survey and Photogrammetry Office. They discovered that due to continuous collapse on the right bank, the dam has been accumulating soil and rocks, increasing its height by 6 meters compared to the initial state. The storage capacity may therefore be revised upwards to 5.1 million cubic meters.

The Ministry of Agriculture stated that based on the latest morphological estimation of the Wanli Stream landslide lake, the water storage has also been recalibrated. As of this morning, it was approximately 2.24 million cubic meters. Estimating an inflow of 150,000 to 250,000 cubic meters per day recently, it is projected that under conditions without significant rainfall, it will not be full and overflow within 10 days.

The Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Nature Conservation Agency also presented a 3D modeling video at the meeting, produced by Professor Chang Kuo-chen's team from National Central University using aerial footage. The video clearly shows the Wanli Stream winding upstream after entering the mountains from the Lintianshan settlement, with the riverbed following steep mountain slopes on both sides. The landslide lake is located 28 kilometers away, and only 7 kilometers from Qicai Lake near the Nantou County border.

The Ministry of Agriculture stated that the 3D modeling imagery clearly illustrates the inaccessibility of the landslide lake's location. With the current flood season, it is difficult for machinery and construction personnel to access the site. Furthermore, the surrounding slopes of the dam are continuously collapsing. Relevant central and local government units and scholars and experts attending the meeting reconfirmed that in the short period before the landslide lake overflows, any concept of human intervention in the dam area, whether through excavation or diversion engineering, is currently not feasible. The immediate priority is to actively carry out various disaster prevention and mitigation preparations downstream. (Editor: Li Shu-hua) 1150701

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