Food and Beverage Price Hikes: Signs of Resurgence Due to Naphtha Supply Concerns; Packaging and Materials as Price Hike Factor at Record Pace; May Sees 70 Items, First Time Below 100 in Four Months

Teikoku Databank Co., Ltd. analyzed the trends and outlook for food and beverage price increases from May 2026 onwards.

SUMMARY

Food and beverage price increases in May 2026 totaled 70 items.

By food category, "confectionery," including chocolate sweets, was the most numerous with 38 items.

Currently, significant price increases are occurring in food packaging due to the impact of the Middle East situation, and there is a possibility of a renewed rush of price hikes from this summer onwards due to naphtha shortages.

[Note]

The number of items and price increases are based on announcements from each company. Items that underwent multiple price increases within the year are counted as separate items.

The maximum price increase rate at the time of announcement was adopted. "De facto price increases" due to price freezes and reduced contents are also included.

2026 Price Increases: 5,981 Items, 60% Decrease Pace Year-on-Year

For 2026, price increases mainly for household use by 195 major food manufacturers totaled 6,290 items cumulatively from January to September. Compared to the same period last year (April 2025 survey, 14,409 items) when the annual number of planned price increases exceeded 10,000 items, the pace in the April 2026 survey, including planned increases, was a 60% decrease year-on-year.

Looking at the 2026 price increases as of the April survey, the average price increase rate per instance was 15%, maintaining a similar level to the previous full year (15%). By food category, "seasonings" such as mayonnaise and dressings were the most numerous (2,053 items), followed by "processed foods" such as frozen foods, packaged rice, canned goods, and instant noodles (1,993 items), and "alcoholic beverages and drinks" such as shochu and wine (1,074 items). In "confectionery" (593 items), price increases were observed in chocolate sweets, as well as some rice cracker products, continuing from the previous year. For trends from May onwards, both June (906 items) and July (952 items) remained below 1,000 items per month, and also fell below the previous year's level from August onwards.

Regarding price increase factors, those derived from materials, especially raw materials, accounted for a large proportion. Price increases affected by "high raw material costs" reached 99.6%, the highest level since data collection began in 2023. "Packaging and materials" (69.9%) exceeded the previous month and significantly surpassed the previous year's level (60.2%) in the April survey, proceeding at the highest pace since 2023 annually. While price increases continued to be centered on the impact of persistent material costs, price increases due to soaring packaging material costs accompanying the worsening situation in the Middle East have begun to emerge.

In addition, "logistics costs" (73.6%), "energy" (59.5%), and "labor costs" (49.4%) decreased compared to the previous month's survey. Price increases derived from "labor costs" within 2026 continued their downward trend from February (66.2%), when they accounted for the highest proportion, falling below half of the total and reaching the lowest level for the year. While the trend of passing on cost increases from raw materials and material prices to product prices continues, price increases derived from labor costs, such as wage hikes, are relatively weakening.

Food and beverage price increases in May 2026 alone remained at a total of 70 items, with the average price increase rate per instance staying around 13% per month. This is the first time in four months, since January this year, that the number of monthly price increase items has fallen below 100. By food category, "confectionery," including chocolate sweets, was the most numerous with 38 items.

2026 Outlook: "Naphtha Supply Difficulties" - Possibility of Renewed Food Price Hike Rush

Price increases in 2026 were initially expected to remain at a gradual pace, despite factors such as the government's increase in imported wheat selling prices, the prolonged depreciation of the yen approaching 160 yen to the dollar leading to higher import food costs, and "sticky" price increase factors like logistics and labor costs continuing from 2025. However, the rapidly escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East due to attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, are emerging as unavoidable risks for food and beverage price trends. In particular, cost pressure is becoming prominent for petroleum-derived resin materials, including food packaging films, and strong price increase pressure is observed in the food packaging and materials sector.

In an April survey conducted by Teikoku Databank (on the impact of crude oil price hikes and supply concerns due to the Middle East situation, targeting approximately 1,700 companies), when asked how long crude oil price hikes could continue before leading to a reduction in core business, 24.6% of responding food companies (57 food and feed manufacturing companies) answered "less than 3 months (limit)." Combined with "3 months or more to less than 6 months" (31.6%), more than half of the companies indicated they could "last for half a year" (until October). Small and medium-sized food manufacturers also reported "a series of requests for significant price increases without grace periods from PP (polypropylene) and PE (polyethylene) raw material packaging manufacturers," and even large manufacturers have begun to experience impacts on production activities, such as being forced to halt production of commercial food products.