Food Price Hikes in April 2026: 2,798 Items, First Rush of the Year; Uncertainty After Temporary Lull, Potential for Resurgence in Second Half

Teikoku Databank, Ltd. has analyzed the trends and outlook for food and beverage price increases from April 2026 onwards.

SUMMARY

The total number of food and beverage items with price increases in April 2026 reached 2,798.

In terms of food categories, "Seasonings" (1,514 items), primarily mayonnaise and dressings, accounted for the largest share.

Regarding the reasons for price hikes, increases in raw materials and other tangible goods constituted a significant portion.

While a lull, significantly below the previous year, is expected to continue for the time being, a rush of price increases may reignite in the latter half of the year if costs related to the weak yen, high oil prices, and energy continue to rise in a long-term and complex manner.

[Note]

The number of items and price increases are based on announcements from each company. Items that underwent multiple price increases within the year were counted as separate items.

The rate of price increase adopted is the maximum announced at the time of announcement. This also includes "effective price increases" due to price freezes or reductions in content.

2,798 Food Items to See Price Hikes in April 2026, Marking the Year's First Rush

Among 195 major food manufacturers, focusing on household products, the number of food and beverage items with price increases in April was 2,798, with an average increase rate of 14% per hike. This is the first time since October 2025 that the number of items with price increases in a single month has exceeded 2,000, and it marks the first price hike rush of 2026. However, compared to the previous year (4,225 items), April's figures were down by 1,427 items, or 33.8%. It was also the second-lowest level for April since the survey began in 2022. The momentum of price increases in food and beverages has remained in a lull compared to the previous year.

A breakdown of the April 2026 price increases by food category shows that "Seasonings" (1,514 items), mainly mayonnaise and dressings, were the most affected. "Processed Foods" (609 items) primarily included instant noodles, cup soups, and canned goods. "Alcoholic Beverages and Drinks" (369 items) covered items such as whiskey, shochu, and imported wines. Additionally, "Raw Materials" (259 items) saw a significant number of increases, particularly in edible oils.

The cumulative number of price increases from January to July 2026 reached 5,729 items, with an average annual increase rate of 15%. Compared to the same period last year (as of March 31, 2025, with 11,707 items planned for the year), the pace as of March 31, 2026, including planned increases, was down by 50%. However, "reduction in quantity" price hikes were observed in categories like confectionery, and price increases due to rising raw material costs, including rice, were common. Furthermore, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East due to attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, along with concerns about rising costs for packaging materials and energy due to unstable crude oil supply, are increasing. This could lead to a resurgence of price hikes in the latter half of the year, following a period of slowdown.

Regarding the reasons for price increases, those related to raw materials and other tangible goods accounted for the majority. "Rising raw material costs" affected 99.8% of the price hikes, the highest since the survey began in 2023. Factors that increased from the previous month included "Energy" (60.0%), such as electricity and gas; "Logistics Costs" (72.9%), reflecting increased transportation costs due to regulations like overtime work for truck drivers; and "Weak Yen (Exchange Rate Fluctuations)" (11.7%). Notably, "Weak Yen" saw a significant increase from the previous month (3.3%). On the other hand, price hikes due to "Labor Costs" accounted for 52.7%, remaining at the highest level in the past four years, although it decreased from the previous month. "Packaging and Materials" (68.8%) also decreased from the previous month but, influenced by price increases for packaging and trays, remained at the highest level in the past four years on an annual basis.

2026 Outlook: Uncertainty After Temporary Lull in Price Hikes, Potential for Resurgence in Second Half

Price increases in 2026 are expected to remain below the previous year's levels through early spring. Price hikes due to supply shocks caused by record-breaking poor harvests and inventory shortages in a wide range of raw materials have shown a tendency to slow down. On the other hand, the prolonged period of a weak yen, approaching 160 yen to the dollar, is beginning to be reflected in higher costs for imported foods, such as the increase in the selling price of imported wheat by the government on April 1st. Additionally, risks that cannot be ignored for food and beverage price trends are re-emerging, including the rapidly heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East due to attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, and concerns about crude oil supply and price increases due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Cost pressures are already rising for petroleum-derived resin materials used in plastic films and PET resins. Furthermore, concerns about rising electricity and fuel costs expected from summer onwards, and price increases due to global supply and demand tightness observed in edible oils, are numerous.

Currently, driven by price increases in packaging materials following the rise in logistics and labor costs since 2025, and "sticky" price hikes directly caused by increased labor costs, a lull significantly below the previous year is expected to continue for the time being. However, if the costs of packaging and materials, logistics, energy, and imported raw materials collectively increase due to difficulties in crude oil procurement stemming from the Middle East turmoil and the prolonged weak yen leading to higher import prices, coupled with rising international prices for grains like wheat and edible oils, a rush of price increases could reignite in the latter half of the year, affecting a wide range of food and beverage products.