Asset Future Research Institute Analyzes Consumers' Living Conditions

Recently, we have been hearing the term Financial Well-being (FWB) more frequently. FWB is defined as 'a state of having economic security and being able to make choices to enjoy life.' In other words, it is a state where you can choose 'what you want to cherish' without being driven by financial anxiety. The important point is not just the amount of your asset balance, but 'how secure you feel about your household finances and future.'

So, to what extent do Japanese households possess this 'economic security'?

In January 2026, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Future Research Institute (hereinafter referred to as Mirai-ken) conducted a nationwide survey of 10,000 people aged 18 to 69. In the survey, they asked, 'How do you expect your household finances to change regarding your overall life and family in the next 1-2 years?', and created their proprietary 'Mirai-ken Household Expectation Index'. Based on these results, they analyzed the trends in consumers' living conditions.

[Key Points]
- While 'the economy is looking up', the household expectation index is in negative territory.
- Although the BOJ Tankan and the Household Expectation Index have different survey targets and purposes and cannot be simply compared, attention must be paid to the possibility that a gap is beginning to emerge between 'macro economic sentiment' and the 'scenery seen by households'.
- Consumers see macro topics like 'economy', 'wage increases', and 'monetary policy' daily, but on the other hand, there are still many who have never grasped or recognized their 'own household finances' such as income, expenditures, assets, and future outlooks as specific numbers.
- From an FWB perspective, it is important not to leave this 'vague anxiety' or 'vague optimism' unaddressed.
- Taking inventory of one's own and one's family's working style, income, expenditures, and assets, and using life plan simulations to think about 'what will happen to our household finances from now on' with as much evidence as possible to visualize it, is the first step to increasing economic security.
- If household anxiety is eased and realistic expectations for the future build up, consumption, investment, and work choices will also change, creating a virtuous cycle for the economy as a whole.

The Economy is 'Positive'. But What About Household Sentiment?

Current stock prices are hovering around historical highs, and corporate profits are generally solid. In the March 2026 Bank of Japan Tankan survey, the business condition diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturing enterprises improved for the fourth consecutive quarter to +17 [Figure 1]. Large non-manufacturing enterprises also maintained a high level of +36, indicating that macroeconomic sentiment is generally 'positive'.

Wage increases are also expected to be at the same high level as the previous year, and news such as 'the trend of wage hikes is spreading' and 'the economy is picking up' is increasing. The government has also promoted 'growth and distribution' and launched proactive fiscal management.

However, how many people can proudly say, 'Our household's livelihood looks like it will improve from now on'?

[Figure 1] Large Manufacturing / Large Non-Manufacturing Business Condition DI (Recent) Trends
(Source) Created by Mirai-ken from Bank of Japan published data

The 'Household Temperature' Seen Through the 'Household Expectation Index'

In Mirai-ken's nationwide survey of 10,000 people, they asked, 'How do you expect your household finances to change regarding your overall life and family in the next 1-2 years?', and created the proprietary 'Mirai-ken Household Expectation Index' [Figure 2].

[Figure 2] Household Outlook for the Next 1-2 Years (Mirai-ken Household Expectation Index)
(Source) Unless otherwise noted, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Future Research Institute 'Survey on Awareness and Actual Conditions Regarding Housing and Asset Formation' (2026)

The five options were: ① likely to get better, ② likely to get slightly better, ③ will not change, ④ likely to get slightly worse, and ⑤ likely to get worse.
By defining '① + ②' as the 'improving side' and '④ + ⑤' as the 'worsening side', the 'percentage of the improving side minus the percentage of the worsening side' became the 'Mirai-ken Household Expectation Index'. '③ will not change' is neutral.

The overall result was -14.3 points. This is a level where the number of people who feel it is 'likely to get worse' clearly exceeds those who see it 'getting better'.

However, it is worth noting that '③ will not change' accounted for the majority at around 50-60% across the board and in each age group. A wait-and-see attitude, feeling 'I don't think it will improve significantly, but I can't say it will deteriorate dramatically either', is the majority. This structure seems to represent the 'real household temperature' amidst reports that the 'economy is looking up'.

Those in Their 20s Are Positive. Those in Their 30s and Above Are Negative.

Looking by age group, only those in their 20s were positive (positive about living conditions), while all groups in their 30s and above were negative (negative about living conditions).

For those in their 20s, although their income level itself is not high, there is a large 'room for future income growth', and they have relatively broad choices for changing jobs and upgrading skills. They are also proactive about new working styles and investment/asset formation, supported by the expectation that 'we will be able to manage somehow from now on'.