Approximately 67% Respond That Real Estate Prices Are 'Likely to Rise' When Housing Supply Is Limited

■ What's next for the real estate market? Survey on the impact of rising policy interest rates on the selling environment.

Since 2024, the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes on housing loan rates and the real estate market has been drawing attention.

Meanwhile, condominium prices continue to soar, especially in major cities centered around Tokyo's 23 wards. With factors such as purchases by foreign investors and a decrease in the supply of new properties, it is a difficult situation for those considering selling real estate.

Therefore, this time, in collaboration with TAQSIE, we conducted a survey on "market environment and price trends" targeting 500 men and women nationwide.

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"Survey on Market Environment and Price Trends" Survey Overview

Survey method: Internet questionnaire

Survey period: April 17, 2026 - April 23, 2026

Respondents: Men and women nationwide

Valid responses: 500 samples

Questions:

Question 1: How do you think the rise in policy interest rates will affect the selling price of condominiums?

Question 2: Please tell us why you think so.

Question 3: How do you think the rise in policy interest rates will affect the period until a condominium is sold?

Question 4: Please tell us why you think so.

Question 5: When you hear that condominium prices are rising in major cities such as Tokyo's 23 wards, do you feel that "now might be a good time to sell"?

Question 6: Please tell us why you think so.

Question 7: If the supply of new condominiums decreases, do you think attention to used condominiums will increase?

Question 8: Please tell us why you think so.

Question 9: In a situation where housing supply is limited, do you think real estate prices are likely to rise?

Question 10: Please tell us why you think so.

Question 11: If demand for real estate from foreigners increases, do you think it will affect condominium prices and the selling environment in Japan?

Question 12: Please tell us why you think so.

Question 13: Do you think it is better to sell properties in areas where land prices are likely to fall sooner?

Question 14: Please tell us why you think so.

Question 15: Do you think the psychology of selling changes between areas where land prices are rising and areas where they are likely to fall?

Question 16: Please tell us why you think so.

* In principle, figures are rounded to the first decimal place, so the total may not be 100%.

■ 64.8% responded that condominium selling prices will "rise" due to rising policy interest rates.

First, we asked about the impact of rising policy interest rates on condominium selling prices.

22.2% answered "I think it will rise," and 42.6% answered "I think it will rise slightly," totaling 64.8% of people who believe it will "rise." On the other hand, 19.0% answered "I think it will fall slightly," and 16.2% answered "I think it will fall," meaning about 35% expect a decline.

We asked for the reasons, and here are some:

Reasons for thinking "rise":

・Because if interest rates rise, real estate prices will also rise in conjunction (Female, 20s)

・Because prices are constantly rising, it seems like it will follow the same trend (Female, 30s)

・Rising interest rates lead to rising prices, and I think condominium prices will also rise (Male, 60s)

Reasons for thinking "fall":

・Interest rates will be high, so fewer people will buy (Male, 20s)

・Due to a decrease in demand as the total amount of housing loan repayments increases, reducing purchasing desire (Male, 30s)

・If interest rates rise, more people will deposit money or buy financial products aiming for interest income. With fewer building purchases, selling prices will fall due to the balance of supply and demand (Male, 40s)

Those who believe prices will "rise" cite linkage with price increases and inflation, while those who believe prices will "fall" cite decreased demand due to increased loan burdens. Thus, even for the same phenomenon of "rising interest rates," views differ significantly depending on which aspect is focused on.

■ 76.4% responded that the period until a transaction is concluded will "become longer" due to rising policy interest rates.

Next, we asked about the impact of rising policy interest rates on the period until a transaction is concluded.

45.6% answered "I think it will take slightly longer to sell," and 30.8% answered "I think it will take longer to sell," totaling 76.4% of people who believe it will "become longer." 18.0% answered "I think it will become slightly easier to sell," and 5.6% answered "I think it will become easier to sell."

We asked for the reasons, and here are some:

Reasons for thinking "become longer":

・Some people might hesitate to buy if interest rates are high (20s