SpaceX Nears Break-Even! Unlock Wave Approaches, Yet Wall Street Still Forecasts Over 70% Upside

According to WoofunAI, SpaceX (SPCX-US) has experienced three consecutive trading days of decline just weeks after its listing, with its share price nearing the IPO issue price of $135. Market confidence in this historic mega-IPO is being severely tested. The rocket and satellite company led by Elon Musk has rapidly shifted from the initial euphoria at listing to deep anxiety over the risk of breaking below its IPO price.

SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq on June 12, closing its first trading day at $160.95, setting a record for the largest IPO fundraising in U.S. history. However, its market performance has sharply reversed since then. On Tuesday, the stock fell 2.2%, closing at $136.08 per share—just $1 below last month's $135 IPO price. From its peak, the stock has declined by approximately one-third, wiping out nearly $850 billion in market value.

Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, pointed out that in the coming months, the unlocking of insider shares will bring a continuous supply of stock into the market, and investors must closely monitor whether demand can effectively absorb this supply. Bloomberg data shows that, excluding SPACs, the weighted average return of U.S. IPOs in 2026 has dropped to 5.3%, with SpaceX being one of the main drag factors. The group's overall return is only half of the S&P 500 index's performance over the same period.

Data compiled by WoofunAI indicates that such high volatility is not an isolated case among recent tech IPOs, reflecting the market's cautious stance toward high-valuation new stocks.

Market concerns about SpaceX stem not only from short-term price movements but also from dual pressures of valuation levels and stock supply. In terms of valuation, SpaceX currently has an expected price-to-sales ratio exceeding 30x, placing it among the top constituents of the Nasdaq 100 Index, slightly below Palantir Technologies (PLTR-US). Skeptics argue that this valuation level offers insufficient safety margin for the stock price.

At the same time, the company faces a lengthy lock-up arrangement, with insider shares scheduled to be released in batches over the coming months and gradually flow into the market. Ken Mahoney emphasized that continuous supply releases will pressure the stock price, especially when demand remains uncertain.

Despite this, Wall Street analysts remain largely bullish. More than a dozen investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs, have initiated coverage with 'buy' ratings. Over 80% of analysts currently recommend buying, with an average target price of $236.25—over 70% higher than Tuesday's closing price.

However, the divergence between market performance and analyst expectations highlights investors' cautious sentiment toward high-valuation IPOs. Bloomberg's analysis of 30 major tech IPOs over the past 15 years shows that these stocks averaged a 55% peak-to-trough decline in their first year, indicating that significant volatility shortly after listing is somewhat common.

SpaceX is not the only large IPO this year to fall below its first-day closing price. Bloomberg data shows that among the 10 largest IPOs this year, six have already dropped below their first-day closing prices, suggesting that behind the record IPO boom, widespread price volatility persists.

Falling close to the issue price could also present a turning point. For investors who were unable to participate in the IPO subscription, the $135 level might become an attractive entry point.

Talley Leger, market strategist at Wealth Consulting Group, said he chose to observe during the IPO phase, anticipating that SpaceX would later be included in the Nasdaq index, and his firm holds funds tracking that index.

Leger said he might consider buying on weakness if the stock continues to decline, as he aligns with SpaceX's vision and long-term development goals.

SpaceX was recently added to the Nasdaq 100 Index via the rapid inclusion mechanism. Investors and underwriters will closely monitor the stock price movements of SpaceX and South Korean memory chip manufacturer SK Hynix (SKHY-US) American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) over the coming weeks, as both companies completed record-breaking listings within less than a month of each other.

This phenomenon also marks the market's reassessment of the pricing logic for high-valuation tech stocks. Whether a buying opportunity emerges after breaking below the issue price, and how the stock performs after index inclusion, will be focal points for the market in the coming weeks.