Global Warming Nears 1.5-Degree Threshold; Record-Breaking Heat Likely in Next 5 Years

The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office released a report today stating that global average temperatures are expected to approach historical highs over the next five years, with the Arctic warming faster than other regions. This annual report provides temperature and rainfall forecasts for various regions and indicates that the global average surface temperature will be 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900. Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, told Reuters, 'There is very clear evidence that the climate is warming and global average temperatures continue to rise.' The report notes that between 2026 and 2030, there is a very high probability that at least one year will temporarily exceed the pre-industrial level of 1.5 degrees Celsius, potentially breaking the record for the 'hottest year on record' set in 2024. Seabrook added, 'The science is very clear that the window to keep global average temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius is closing rapidly.' The report indicates that over the next five years, winter warming in the Arctic is expected to reach 3.5 times the global average, about 2.8 degrees Celsius higher than the 1991-2020 baseline. As global warming intensifies, Arctic sea ice area continues to shrink, and it is expected that sea ice will melt in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk every March over the next five years. Seabrook pointed out that Arctic warming could also disrupt weather systems, triggering more extreme weather events, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.