Large-Scale Office Building Supply Survey in Tokyo's 23 Wards 2026
Mori Trust released its 2026 survey on large-scale office building supply in Tokyo's 23 wards. While future supply is expected to be restrained, robust tenant demand is accelerating the filling of vacancies and pushing rents up.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: April 23, 2026 at 19:30
- 🔍 Collected: April 23, 2026 at 11:01
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 24, 2026 at 02:27 (15h 25m after Collected)
We announce the latest results of the survey on the supply of office buildings in Tokyo's 23 wards conducted by Mori Trust Co., Ltd. Our company has been conducting surveys on the supply of large-scale office buildings since 1986, and since 2013, we have been surveying and analyzing the supply trends of medium-scale office buildings once a year.
Target of the 'Large-Scale Office Building Supply Survey in Tokyo's 23 Wards'
Survey Area: Tokyo 23 Wards
Target Buildings: Large-scale office buildings (Office gross floor area * 10,000 sqm or more)
Medium-scale office buildings (Office gross floor area * 5,000 sqm or more and less than 10,000 sqm)
* In the case of complex use buildings with stores, residences, hotels, etc., the gross floor area excluding uses other than offices.
Key Points of the Survey Results [As of December 2025]
1. Trends in Supply Volume
The supply of large-scale office buildings in Tokyo's 23 wards in 2025 was 1.13 million sqm (176% year-on-year).
In the 5 years from 2026 onwards, while supply in 2026 and 2029 is expected to be at a similar level to 2025, the average supply over the next 5 years is expected to remain at 870,000 sqm (77% of the past 20-year average).
Trends in Large-Scale Office Building Supply in Tokyo's 23 Wards
2. Trends in Supply Areas
Over the next 5 years, compared to the past 5 years, supply will be more concentrated in the central 3 wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, and Minato), with the ratio of Chiyoda and Chuo wards expected to increase in particular.
Supply Volume in Central 3 Wards vs. Other Wards
Large-Scale Office Building Supply by Ward [2026-2030]
In the breakdown by district, over the past 5 years, supply was centered in 'Toranomon/Shimbashi' and 'Yaesu/Nihonbashi/Kyobashi'. While high-level supply will continue in 'Yaesu/Nihonbashi/Kyobashi' over the next 5 years, multiple areas with limited supply in the past 5 years, such as 'Uchisaiwaicho/Kasumigaseki/Nagatacho', 'Nishi-Shinjuku', 'Aoyama', and 'Oi', are newly included, and the diversification of development areas is expected.
Top 10 Districts for Large-Scale Office Building Supply [2026-2030]
3. Supply Trends by Development Site Type
In the central 3 wards, the ratio of 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)' has increased from 30% in 2016-2020 to 70% in 2026-2030, shifting the main focus of development sites from 'Rebuilding' to 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)'. Outside the central 3 wards, 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)' has continuously been the main development focus since 2016-2020. (Definitions of 'Rebuilding' and 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)' are described below)
4. Supply Trends of Medium-Scale Office Buildings
The supply of medium-scale office buildings in 2025 was 99,000 sqm, equivalent to the past 10-year average of 98,000 sqm. It will decrease to 44,000 sqm in 2026, and the average supply for the next 2 years is 66,000 sqm, below the past 10-year average, but it is expected to increase again to 88,000 sqm in 2027.
Summary
■ Future supply volume will be constrained. The speed of filling vacancies is accelerating.
In 2025, a substantial supply exceeding 1 million sqm was delivered. Although a similar level of supply is expected in 2026 and 2029, the average supply over the next 5 years will fall below the 20-year average, and the supply outlook is expected to be constrained.
The background to this constrained future supply is thought to be the prolonged construction periods and plan revisions associated with soaring construction costs. Factors pushing up construction costs include structural and irreversible challenges such as labor shortages, and since this trend is highly likely to be prolonged, significant supply expansion is unlikely in the future.
On the other hand, demand is expanding robustly. According to our survey, the commitment rate for new buildings reached the high 90% range for properties completed in 2025, about 80% for those completed in 2026, and over 50% for those completed in 2027, indicating a high pace of absorption. Even in 2025 and 2026, when supply exceeding 1 million sqm continues, vacancies are being absorbed smoothly, confirming strong tenant demand. Due to this progress in filling vacancies, rents are on an upward trend, centered on new buildings, and this is beginning to spill over to existing buildings.
The background to this growing demand is that the trend of returning to the office, which has continued since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, is further strengthening. As the value of face-to-face communication is being re-evaluated and more companies are increasing the frequency of office attendance, moves to expand offices are becoming apparent. Furthermore, due to the intensification of the war for talent, more companies view having an office in a high-quality building as an investment for corporate growth, leading to further relocation to new properties.
In this way, both occupancy rates and rents continue to trend upwards, and the market is expected to remain firm for the time being. Although demand may fluctuate to some extent depending on the future external environment, supply will be constrained for at least the next 5 years, and even considering demand fluctuations, the possibility of an oversupply is considered low.
■ Value enhancement of existing properties is progressing. Changes in the relationship between occupancy rates and rents.
Target of the 'Large-Scale Office Building Supply Survey in Tokyo's 23 Wards'
Survey Area: Tokyo 23 Wards
Target Buildings: Large-scale office buildings (Office gross floor area * 10,000 sqm or more)
Medium-scale office buildings (Office gross floor area * 5,000 sqm or more and less than 10,000 sqm)
* In the case of complex use buildings with stores, residences, hotels, etc., the gross floor area excluding uses other than offices.
Key Points of the Survey Results [As of December 2025]
1. Trends in Supply Volume
The supply of large-scale office buildings in Tokyo's 23 wards in 2025 was 1.13 million sqm (176% year-on-year).
In the 5 years from 2026 onwards, while supply in 2026 and 2029 is expected to be at a similar level to 2025, the average supply over the next 5 years is expected to remain at 870,000 sqm (77% of the past 20-year average).
Trends in Large-Scale Office Building Supply in Tokyo's 23 Wards
2. Trends in Supply Areas
Over the next 5 years, compared to the past 5 years, supply will be more concentrated in the central 3 wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, and Minato), with the ratio of Chiyoda and Chuo wards expected to increase in particular.
Supply Volume in Central 3 Wards vs. Other Wards
Large-Scale Office Building Supply by Ward [2026-2030]
In the breakdown by district, over the past 5 years, supply was centered in 'Toranomon/Shimbashi' and 'Yaesu/Nihonbashi/Kyobashi'. While high-level supply will continue in 'Yaesu/Nihonbashi/Kyobashi' over the next 5 years, multiple areas with limited supply in the past 5 years, such as 'Uchisaiwaicho/Kasumigaseki/Nagatacho', 'Nishi-Shinjuku', 'Aoyama', and 'Oi', are newly included, and the diversification of development areas is expected.
Top 10 Districts for Large-Scale Office Building Supply [2026-2030]
3. Supply Trends by Development Site Type
In the central 3 wards, the ratio of 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)' has increased from 30% in 2016-2020 to 70% in 2026-2030, shifting the main focus of development sites from 'Rebuilding' to 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)'. Outside the central 3 wards, 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)' has continuously been the main development focus since 2016-2020. (Definitions of 'Rebuilding' and 'Underutilized/Unused Land (Redevelopment, etc.)' are described below)
4. Supply Trends of Medium-Scale Office Buildings
The supply of medium-scale office buildings in 2025 was 99,000 sqm, equivalent to the past 10-year average of 98,000 sqm. It will decrease to 44,000 sqm in 2026, and the average supply for the next 2 years is 66,000 sqm, below the past 10-year average, but it is expected to increase again to 88,000 sqm in 2027.
Summary
■ Future supply volume will be constrained. The speed of filling vacancies is accelerating.
In 2025, a substantial supply exceeding 1 million sqm was delivered. Although a similar level of supply is expected in 2026 and 2029, the average supply over the next 5 years will fall below the 20-year average, and the supply outlook is expected to be constrained.
The background to this constrained future supply is thought to be the prolonged construction periods and plan revisions associated with soaring construction costs. Factors pushing up construction costs include structural and irreversible challenges such as labor shortages, and since this trend is highly likely to be prolonged, significant supply expansion is unlikely in the future.
On the other hand, demand is expanding robustly. According to our survey, the commitment rate for new buildings reached the high 90% range for properties completed in 2025, about 80% for those completed in 2026, and over 50% for those completed in 2027, indicating a high pace of absorption. Even in 2025 and 2026, when supply exceeding 1 million sqm continues, vacancies are being absorbed smoothly, confirming strong tenant demand. Due to this progress in filling vacancies, rents are on an upward trend, centered on new buildings, and this is beginning to spill over to existing buildings.
The background to this growing demand is that the trend of returning to the office, which has continued since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, is further strengthening. As the value of face-to-face communication is being re-evaluated and more companies are increasing the frequency of office attendance, moves to expand offices are becoming apparent. Furthermore, due to the intensification of the war for talent, more companies view having an office in a high-quality building as an investment for corporate growth, leading to further relocation to new properties.
In this way, both occupancy rates and rents continue to trend upwards, and the market is expected to remain firm for the time being. Although demand may fluctuate to some extent depending on the future external environment, supply will be constrained for at least the next 5 years, and even considering demand fluctuations, the possibility of an oversupply is considered low.
■ Value enhancement of existing properties is progressing. Changes in the relationship between occupancy rates and rents.