McKinsey & Company Releases White Paper Re-evaluating Semiconductor Industry Market Size

McKinsey & Company (Japan Representative: Naoyuki Iwatani) has released the Japanese version of its latest white paper, 'Hiding in plain sight: The underestimated size of the semiconductor industry,' which re-evaluates the semiconductor industry beyond traditional definitions. Partner Dai Tsuchiya, an expert in the semiconductor field in Japan, oversaw the foreword and supervision of this paper. The semiconductor industry, while being a core foundation of the digital economy, has had its market size and value underestimated. With the advancement of AI and the expansion of data center demand, its strategic importance is once again highlighted. This white paper focuses on the overall picture of the semiconductor industry, which could not be captured by traditional 'revenue-based' market definitions. It analyzes the location of value and growth opportunities across the entire ecosystem, as well as the strategies companies should adopt, from multiple perspectives. Key points include: traditional revenue-based analysis has underestimated the market size by not fully reflecting the value of in-house chips by OEMs and design-only companies; the semiconductor market has the potential to expand from approximately $775 billion in 2024 to up to $1.6 trillion by 2030; growth will be concentrated in advanced logic for AI and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), intensifying the 'winner-take-all' structure. Strategic implications for companies: companies are required to adopt strategic positioning based on the characteristics of each segment. Accelerating technological innovation in advanced areas and simultaneously strengthening cost competitiveness in mature areas are key to sustainable growth. Redefining the structure of value creation in semiconductors is a crucial theme that affects not only the competitiveness of individual companies but also industrial competitiveness in the AI era itself.