Demand Shift Driven by Soaring Central Tokyo Prices; Joto Area (Adachi, Katsushika, Edogawa Wards) Takes Center Stage

【Survey Overview】

Survey Period: January 2024 - March 2026

Survey Organization: Mansion Research Co., Ltd.

Survey Target: Used condominiums within Tokyo's 23 wards

Number of Sample Cases: 438,586 cases

Survey Method: Publicly available sales information for used condominiums was collected and aggregated through statistical processing.

Changes in Demand Structure Begin in Central Tokyo

In Tokyo's used condominium market, prices have been on a continuous rise for an extended period. Particularly in central Tokyo, driven by domestic end-users, wealthy individuals, investors, and the inflow of overseas capital, the area has recorded high growth rates compared to other major global cities.

However, while prices continue to climb, clear changes have begun to emerge within the market.

Looking solely at average prices might suggest a vibrant market overall, but in reality, the supply-demand balance varies significantly by area and unit size. And one of the indicators that most accurately reflects this change is "inventory."

Examining the trend of inventory by unit size within Tokyo's 23 wards currently reveals clearly where demand exists and where it is beginning to diminish.

Rapidly Accumulating Inventory in Larger Unit Sizes in Central 5 Wards

Currently, a particularly noticeable increase in inventory is observed for used condominiums in higher price ranges and larger unit sizes within the central 5 wards.

Source: Fukushima Research

Inventory is accumulating at an extremely rapid pace, primarily for family-oriented units ranging from 70m2 to over 100m2.

Originally, the supply of large units in central Tokyo was limited, and they maintained stable demand due to their high rarity. However, in recent years, the speed of price increases has far outpaced the income growth of end-users and the increase in available housing loan amounts.

Especially in Tokyo's 23 wards, the price per tsubo for larger unit sizes has skyrocketed as one approaches the city center.

Source: Fukushima Research

Even for units of approximately 80m2, price differences of tens of millions of yen can occur depending on the area, reaching a level where dual-income families and high-income households that would have traditionally considered purchasing in central Tokyo are now hesitant.

As a result, high-priced condominiums in central Tokyo have gradually begun to lose liquidity.

Losing Liquidity is Synonymous with Supply Disappearing

What's important here is not to interpret a decline in liquidity simply as "no longer selling."

In the market, losing liquidity means that transactions by end-users at that price point have become difficult to establish.

In other words, the supply that previously existed in the market has effectively disappeared from the market for end-users.

For example, consider a segment of buyers who previously purchased family-oriented units in central Tokyo for around 80 million to 100 million yen. However, due to price increases, if the same units rise to 150 million to 200 million yen, even though the housing physically exists, it falls outside the purchasing range for many end-users.

Even if supply exists in market statistics, it is no different from supply being lost in the end-user market.

This does not mean that housing demand itself has disappeared, but rather that demand is shifting to other areas.

The decline in liquidity in the high-priced condominium market of central Tokyo has become a major factor in changing the demand structure of Tokyo as a whole.

Joto Area Becomes the Receiver

In fact, this movement can be observed in areas such as Meguro Ward, Shinagawa Ward, Koto Ward, Setagaya Ward, and Bunkyo Ward.

Prices in these areas have also risen significantly in recent years. However, unlike the central 5 wards, there has not been a sharp increase in inventory, and a certain level of liquidity has been maintained even for larger unit sizes.

Source: Fukushima Research

Normally, as market prices rise significantly, demand tends to decrease, and inventory tends to accumulate.

Despite this, stable inventory levels suggest the possibility of new demand inflow.

Much of this demand is thought to come from end-users priced out of the high-priced condominium market in central Tokyo.

"Originally considered central 5 wards, but budget was insufficient." "Want to secure a larger living area while maintaining commuting convenience." "Also want to prioritize educational environment and living convenience."

For such individuals, areas like Meguro, Shinagawa, Koto, Setagaya, and Bunkyo wards become very attractive alternative options. This is because they can acquire larger units for the same budget while maintaining access to central Tokyo.

These areas are not just popular residential locations; they are functioning as receivers for alternative demand generated by the soaring prices in central Tokyo.

Joto Area Supports Tokyo's Housing Demand

Even more interesting is the movement in the Joto area, including Katsushika Ward, Adachi Ward, and Edogawa Ward.

In these areas, inventory of high-priced used condominiums has significantly decreased.

Source: Fukushima Research

The background to this is relative price competitiveness.

With relatively lower price levels within Tokyo's 23 wards and good access to central Tokyo, many end-users have flowed into these areas.

Dual-income households, in particular, tend to place a strong emphasis on the balance between "commute time" and "housing price."

Should they purchase a 60m2 unit in an area close to the city center, or an 80m2 or larger unit in the Joto area?

In a market where prices continue to rise, this choice has become a major factor in housing purchase decisions.

As a result, these areas have come to play a crucial role in supporting Tokyo's housing demand.

The End of the "Market Where Everything Goes Up"

This market change may indicate that Tokyo's used condominium market has entered a new phase.

The market up until now was an era where "anywhere in Tokyo would go up" and "central Tokyo would always sell."

However, this may not be the case in the future.

The market may shift to one where only units in price ranges with demand, purchasable unit sizes, and areas where end-user transactions can be established will be selected.

In other words, what is important for understanding the market is not the rate of increase in average prices, but the perspective of "in which areas, at which price points, and in which unit sizes does demand remain?"

Inventory is a Mirror Reflecting the Market's Future

An accumulation of inventory is often viewed as a danger signal for the market.

However, the changes occurring now are not necessarily negative.

It can also be seen as a process where the high-priced market in central Tokyo, which had become detached from end-users due to rapid price increases, is gradually moving towards appropriate price formation.

And on the other hand, areas with price ranges that end-users can afford may continue to maintain high liquidity. Inventory is not simply unsold stock.

Inventory is a message from the market reflecting where consumers are choosing and where they are no longer choosing.

The loss of liquidity in high-priced condominiums in central Tokyo was synonymous with the disappearance of that supply from the market.

And the demand seeking the lost supply has moved to other areas, creating new price formations.

What is happening in Tokyo's used condominium market is not a disappearance of demand.

It is a transfer of demand. Identifying the destination of this transfer may be the most important perspective for understanding the market going forward.

Author Profile

Shinji Fukushima

Mansion Research Co., Ltd.

Data Business Development Department

Head of Real Estate Data Analysis

Fukushima Research

Representative Researcher

Representative Researcher at Fukushima Research. Graduated from the Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University. After being in charge of marketing research at a major real estate company, he was responsible for legal and labor affairs at an architectural design firm. Currently, at Mansion Research Co., Ltd., he conducts research and development of real estate market surveys and evaluation indicators, while also supporting decision-making for client companies' real estate businesses. He also provides data and analysis results to major media outlets and academic institutions.

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