[Condominium Market] Where is the 'Next Oimachi'? Exploring Potential Areas Around Central Tokyo
According to a survey by Mansion Research and Fukushima Soken, used condominium prices in Oimachi have surged to levels comparable to central Tokyo due to large-scale redevelopment and the spillover of soaring central Tokyo prices. An analysis has been released to identify the 'next Oimachi' with similar potential.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: May 9, 2026 at 02:00
- 🔍 Collected: May 8, 2026 at 17:32
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: May 8, 2026 at 18:16 (44 min after Collected)
## Survey Overview
Survey Period: January 2015 - March 2026
Survey Organization: Mansion Research
Target: Used condominiums within Tokyo's 23 wards
Number of Sample Cases: 626,836
Survey Method: Statistical processing and aggregation of publicly available used condominium sales information.
## Why Oimachi is Attracting Attention Again
In recent years, the area around Oimachi Station has seen a series of large-scale redevelopments, with the grand opening of Oimachi Tracks, a symbol of this, bringing significant excitement to the entire town. Oimachi was originally valued for its excellent transportation convenience, but the enhancement of commercial and residential functions through redevelopment has elevated the town's appeal to a new level. In the used condominium market, Oimachi is known as a representative area where prices have risen significantly in recent years.
On the other hand, what is important in the real estate market is the perspective of 'where will show price movements like Oimachi next?' By analyzing areas with similar structural conditions, rather than just chasing areas where prices have already risen significantly, it is possible to identify regions with high future potential. Therefore, this time, we will delve into the factors behind Oimachi's price increase and consider areas that could become the 'next Oimachi.'
## Used Condominium Prices in Oimachi Rising to Central Tokyo Levels
Source: Fukushima Soken
First, let's look at the price trends of used condominiums around Oimachi Station. Looking at the trend of used condominium prices per tsubo (approx. 3.3 sqm) for properties built after 2001, Oimachi's absolute price level per tsubo is still lower compared to the five central wards of Tokyo. However, what is noteworthy is the curve of its price increase. Especially from 2024 to 2025, it shows a rapid price increase similar to the five central wards, indicating that central Tokyo-standard price formation is progressing.
This is not merely a localized surge in popularity but indicates that a 'spillover of soaring central Tokyo prices' is occurring. In recent years, both new and used property prices in central Tokyo have risen remarkably, significantly increasing the hurdle for first-time buyers and owner-occupiers to purchase in the five central wards. As a result, demand is thought to have flowed into semi-central areas that have high accessibility to central Tokyo and relatively suppressed prices. Oimachi can be said to be a prime example of this.
## Large-Scale Condominium Supply Boosted the Town's Value
Source: Fukushima Soken
In addition, Oimachi saw a concentration of large-scale condominium supply from 2018 to 2019. Looking at the number of new completions and the average number of new units per year, multiple large condominiums with a high average number of units were supplied during this period, indicating an increase in the overall housing supply for the town.
Generally, large-scale condominium development does more than just increase housing supply. The supply of tower condominiums and large residences with a certain number of units changes the image of the town itself. Store configurations and living flows also change, and commercial agglomeration progresses due to an increase in residential population. Furthermore, the influx of residents with a certain income level forms an area brand, making it easier for price-boosting effects to occur in the used market.
In Oimachi's case, the combination of enhanced town power through large-scale development, substitute demand due to soaring central Tokyo prices, and the transportation convenience of being able to use the JR Keihin-Tohoku Line, Rinkai Line, and Tokyu Oimachi Line is thought to have created a synergistic effect, leading to price increases. In particular, accessibility to Shinagawa, Osaki, and Tokyo areas is highly compatible with the trend of returning to the office, attracting strong demand, especially from dual-income households.
## Signs of Declining Liquidity at Present
The map below shows the inventory trend of symbolic condominiums (average price over 80 million yen).
Red plots: Inventory decreasing trend (high liquidity)
Yellow plots: Inventory stable (normal liquidity)
Blue plots: Inventory increasing trend (low liquidity)
Source: Fukushima Soken data (using Google Maps)
However, looking at the current market, signs of change are beginning to emerge. Observing the inventory trend of symbolic condominiums, i.e., representative properties with an average price of 80 million yen or more, blue plots, indicating an increasing inventory trend, have become somewhat noticeable recently.
This is an important signal. An increase in inventory means that sales are not keeping pace with the number of properties for sale. In other words, liquidity is declining, and the phase of price increases may be starting to subside. Of course, this does not mean an immediate shift to price declines, but it suggests that the market is gradually entering a phase of calming down from the rapid price increase phase seen until now.
## Three Conditions Necessary for the 'Next Oimachi'
So, where could the 'next Oimachi' be in the future?
The important conditions are:
1: Active large-scale development in the immediate vicinity.
Keywords:
Survey Period: January 2015 - March 2026
Survey Organization: Mansion Research
Target: Used condominiums within Tokyo's 23 wards
Number of Sample Cases: 626,836
Survey Method: Statistical processing and aggregation of publicly available used condominium sales information.
## Why Oimachi is Attracting Attention Again
In recent years, the area around Oimachi Station has seen a series of large-scale redevelopments, with the grand opening of Oimachi Tracks, a symbol of this, bringing significant excitement to the entire town. Oimachi was originally valued for its excellent transportation convenience, but the enhancement of commercial and residential functions through redevelopment has elevated the town's appeal to a new level. In the used condominium market, Oimachi is known as a representative area where prices have risen significantly in recent years.
On the other hand, what is important in the real estate market is the perspective of 'where will show price movements like Oimachi next?' By analyzing areas with similar structural conditions, rather than just chasing areas where prices have already risen significantly, it is possible to identify regions with high future potential. Therefore, this time, we will delve into the factors behind Oimachi's price increase and consider areas that could become the 'next Oimachi.'
## Used Condominium Prices in Oimachi Rising to Central Tokyo Levels
Source: Fukushima Soken
First, let's look at the price trends of used condominiums around Oimachi Station. Looking at the trend of used condominium prices per tsubo (approx. 3.3 sqm) for properties built after 2001, Oimachi's absolute price level per tsubo is still lower compared to the five central wards of Tokyo. However, what is noteworthy is the curve of its price increase. Especially from 2024 to 2025, it shows a rapid price increase similar to the five central wards, indicating that central Tokyo-standard price formation is progressing.
This is not merely a localized surge in popularity but indicates that a 'spillover of soaring central Tokyo prices' is occurring. In recent years, both new and used property prices in central Tokyo have risen remarkably, significantly increasing the hurdle for first-time buyers and owner-occupiers to purchase in the five central wards. As a result, demand is thought to have flowed into semi-central areas that have high accessibility to central Tokyo and relatively suppressed prices. Oimachi can be said to be a prime example of this.
## Large-Scale Condominium Supply Boosted the Town's Value
Source: Fukushima Soken
In addition, Oimachi saw a concentration of large-scale condominium supply from 2018 to 2019. Looking at the number of new completions and the average number of new units per year, multiple large condominiums with a high average number of units were supplied during this period, indicating an increase in the overall housing supply for the town.
Generally, large-scale condominium development does more than just increase housing supply. The supply of tower condominiums and large residences with a certain number of units changes the image of the town itself. Store configurations and living flows also change, and commercial agglomeration progresses due to an increase in residential population. Furthermore, the influx of residents with a certain income level forms an area brand, making it easier for price-boosting effects to occur in the used market.
In Oimachi's case, the combination of enhanced town power through large-scale development, substitute demand due to soaring central Tokyo prices, and the transportation convenience of being able to use the JR Keihin-Tohoku Line, Rinkai Line, and Tokyu Oimachi Line is thought to have created a synergistic effect, leading to price increases. In particular, accessibility to Shinagawa, Osaki, and Tokyo areas is highly compatible with the trend of returning to the office, attracting strong demand, especially from dual-income households.
## Signs of Declining Liquidity at Present
The map below shows the inventory trend of symbolic condominiums (average price over 80 million yen).
Red plots: Inventory decreasing trend (high liquidity)
Yellow plots: Inventory stable (normal liquidity)
Blue plots: Inventory increasing trend (low liquidity)
Source: Fukushima Soken data (using Google Maps)
However, looking at the current market, signs of change are beginning to emerge. Observing the inventory trend of symbolic condominiums, i.e., representative properties with an average price of 80 million yen or more, blue plots, indicating an increasing inventory trend, have become somewhat noticeable recently.
This is an important signal. An increase in inventory means that sales are not keeping pace with the number of properties for sale. In other words, liquidity is declining, and the phase of price increases may be starting to subside. Of course, this does not mean an immediate shift to price declines, but it suggests that the market is gradually entering a phase of calming down from the rapid price increase phase seen until now.
## Three Conditions Necessary for the 'Next Oimachi'
So, where could the 'next Oimachi' be in the future?
The important conditions are:
1: Active large-scale development in the immediate vicinity.
Keywords: