Anomaly in Chuo Ward, Sudden Brake on Household Growth: Signs of Bay Area Bubble Stalling
A survey of Tokyo's 23 wards reveals a decline in demand for used condos due to soaring prices. Chuo Ward's bay area is seeing prolonged sales and increased price cuts, signaling a stalling bubble.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: April 25, 2026 at 02:00
- 🔍 Collected: April 24, 2026 at 17:31
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: April 24, 2026 at 21:10 (3h 38m after Collected)
[Survey Overview]
Survey Period: January 2023 - March 2026
Survey Agency: Mansion Research
Survey Target: Used condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards
Number of Sample Cases: 234,621 cases
Survey Method: Collect, statistically process, and aggregate publicly available sales information of used condominiums
The "Overheating" seen in the Central Tokyo Used Condominium Market and its Side Effects
Recently, the used condominium market in Tokyo's 23 wards has seen unprecedented price surges. This increase is considered not just an accumulation of actual demand, but strongly driven by an influx of investment and speculative money against a backdrop of a low-interest-rate environment and expectations of asset inflation. As a result, while the number of sales transactions has been active, it can be said that its reality was a distorted boom caused by a "mixture of actual demand and investment."
However, such excessive price increases are accompanied by side effects from the perspective of market sustainability. Particularly for the actual demand group, there are increasing instances where prices exceed affordable ranges, causing a decline in demand. In other words, it is important to note that the price increase itself is beginning to shift into a structure that suppresses new demand.
"Demand Slowdown Signals" Shown by Household Count Data
Source: Data from Tokyo Metropolitan Government, processed by Fukushima Research Institute
Evidence of such market changes can be seen in the trends in the growth rate of the number of households in each area of Tokyo's 23 wards. From Reiwa 5 (2023) to Reiwa 7 (2025), the number of households itself has increased year-on-year in all areas, and the trend of population and household inflow is maintained.
On the other hand, what is noteworthy is the "change in the growth rate." In Reiwa 6 (2024), compared to Reiwa 5, the growth rate of the number of households clearly slowed down in the 5 central wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya) and their surrounding areas (table right). Furthermore, in Reiwa 7, this slowdown has spread to almost the entire 23 wards, creating a picture where "brakes" are uniformly applied from the central areas, which were the driving force until now, to the outer fringes.
This suggests the possibility that the rise in housing prices is affecting residential choices and bringing about changes in the decision-making process for moving in and forming households.
Symbolic Movements of Slowdown Manifested in Chuo Ward
The trend in Chuo Ward is particularly striking. Although the number of households itself is increasing even in Reiwa 7, the extent of the decline in its growth rate is exceptionally large even within the 23 wards, making it a "symbolic area of slowdown."
Chuo Ward has historically gathered strong support from the actual demand group due to a sense of relative affordability in its price range compared to Chiyoda Ward and Minato Ward. Additionally, due to its central location and future potential from bay area redevelopment, it possesses characteristics that easily attract investment demand.
However, this very "coexistence structure of actual demand and investment" became the factor that created accelerating price increases during the rising phase. Particularly in the bay area, which accounts for 30-40% of the supply of used condominiums in Chuo Ward, the speed of price increases was remarkable, and as a result, the selection of demand has progressed, and a decline in liquidity has become apparent.
The Reality of Declining Liquidity in the Bay Area
Source: Fukushima Research Institute
Looking at market trends in the Chuo Ward bay area, the change is even clearer. Since mid-2024, the sales period (days from listing to contract) has prolonged, and at the same time, the frequency of price reductions is on an increasing trend. This means a situation where it is difficult to find buyers even if sellers adjust prices; in other words, market liquidity is declining.
The bay area has achieved rapid price increases by capturing demand from foreign investors in addition to the actual demand of high-income households. However, recently, the increase in funding costs accompanying rising interest rates is squeezing purchasing power, and a decline in demand, especially among the actual demand group, is prominent. In addition, the influx of investment money is also peaking out, showing a situation where the "base of buyers" is shrinking.
Furthermore, what is noteworthy is that this decline in liquidity is not limited to the bay area. Even in the inland areas of Chuo Ward, a prolongation of sales days and an increase in the frequency of price reductions have been confirmed since mid-2025.
These areas had gathered popularity as a receptacle for "alternative demand" accompanying the price surges in the bay area, but as demand flowed in, prices also rose, and as a result, a similar collapse in the supply-demand balance is occurring. In other words, even if price shifts occur between areas, if the overall price level rises too much, it is structurally destined to face the same challenges ultimately.
A "Price-Led Slowdown Phase" Spreading Across all 23 Wards
The movements that have become apparent in Chuo Ward should not be viewed as temporary, but as part of a structural change spreading to the entirety of Tokyo's 23 wards. While the number of households itself is still increasing, its growth rate is certainly slowing down, and it is highly likely that we have entered a stage where rising housing prices suppress the expansion of demand.
While the market up to now was a phase where "price increases call for further demand," it is currently transitioning to a phase where "price increases cause demand to decline."
Survey Period: January 2023 - March 2026
Survey Agency: Mansion Research
Survey Target: Used condominiums in Tokyo's 23 wards
Number of Sample Cases: 234,621 cases
Survey Method: Collect, statistically process, and aggregate publicly available sales information of used condominiums
The "Overheating" seen in the Central Tokyo Used Condominium Market and its Side Effects
Recently, the used condominium market in Tokyo's 23 wards has seen unprecedented price surges. This increase is considered not just an accumulation of actual demand, but strongly driven by an influx of investment and speculative money against a backdrop of a low-interest-rate environment and expectations of asset inflation. As a result, while the number of sales transactions has been active, it can be said that its reality was a distorted boom caused by a "mixture of actual demand and investment."
However, such excessive price increases are accompanied by side effects from the perspective of market sustainability. Particularly for the actual demand group, there are increasing instances where prices exceed affordable ranges, causing a decline in demand. In other words, it is important to note that the price increase itself is beginning to shift into a structure that suppresses new demand.
"Demand Slowdown Signals" Shown by Household Count Data
Source: Data from Tokyo Metropolitan Government, processed by Fukushima Research Institute
Evidence of such market changes can be seen in the trends in the growth rate of the number of households in each area of Tokyo's 23 wards. From Reiwa 5 (2023) to Reiwa 7 (2025), the number of households itself has increased year-on-year in all areas, and the trend of population and household inflow is maintained.
On the other hand, what is noteworthy is the "change in the growth rate." In Reiwa 6 (2024), compared to Reiwa 5, the growth rate of the number of households clearly slowed down in the 5 central wards (Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, Shibuya) and their surrounding areas (table right). Furthermore, in Reiwa 7, this slowdown has spread to almost the entire 23 wards, creating a picture where "brakes" are uniformly applied from the central areas, which were the driving force until now, to the outer fringes.
This suggests the possibility that the rise in housing prices is affecting residential choices and bringing about changes in the decision-making process for moving in and forming households.
Symbolic Movements of Slowdown Manifested in Chuo Ward
The trend in Chuo Ward is particularly striking. Although the number of households itself is increasing even in Reiwa 7, the extent of the decline in its growth rate is exceptionally large even within the 23 wards, making it a "symbolic area of slowdown."
Chuo Ward has historically gathered strong support from the actual demand group due to a sense of relative affordability in its price range compared to Chiyoda Ward and Minato Ward. Additionally, due to its central location and future potential from bay area redevelopment, it possesses characteristics that easily attract investment demand.
However, this very "coexistence structure of actual demand and investment" became the factor that created accelerating price increases during the rising phase. Particularly in the bay area, which accounts for 30-40% of the supply of used condominiums in Chuo Ward, the speed of price increases was remarkable, and as a result, the selection of demand has progressed, and a decline in liquidity has become apparent.
The Reality of Declining Liquidity in the Bay Area
Source: Fukushima Research Institute
Looking at market trends in the Chuo Ward bay area, the change is even clearer. Since mid-2024, the sales period (days from listing to contract) has prolonged, and at the same time, the frequency of price reductions is on an increasing trend. This means a situation where it is difficult to find buyers even if sellers adjust prices; in other words, market liquidity is declining.
The bay area has achieved rapid price increases by capturing demand from foreign investors in addition to the actual demand of high-income households. However, recently, the increase in funding costs accompanying rising interest rates is squeezing purchasing power, and a decline in demand, especially among the actual demand group, is prominent. In addition, the influx of investment money is also peaking out, showing a situation where the "base of buyers" is shrinking.
Furthermore, what is noteworthy is that this decline in liquidity is not limited to the bay area. Even in the inland areas of Chuo Ward, a prolongation of sales days and an increase in the frequency of price reductions have been confirmed since mid-2025.
These areas had gathered popularity as a receptacle for "alternative demand" accompanying the price surges in the bay area, but as demand flowed in, prices also rose, and as a result, a similar collapse in the supply-demand balance is occurring. In other words, even if price shifts occur between areas, if the overall price level rises too much, it is structurally destined to face the same challenges ultimately.
A "Price-Led Slowdown Phase" Spreading Across all 23 Wards
The movements that have become apparent in Chuo Ward should not be viewed as temporary, but as part of a structural change spreading to the entirety of Tokyo's 23 wards. While the number of households itself is still increasing, its growth rate is certainly slowing down, and it is highly likely that we have entered a stage where rising housing prices suppress the expansion of demand.
While the market up to now was a phase where "price increases call for further demand," it is currently transitioning to a phase where "price increases cause demand to decline."