Site Selection in an Era of Declining New Condominiums: Shinkansen Stations Attracting Condominium Development

【Survey Overview】

・Survey Period: January 2025 - February 2026
・Survey Organization: Mansion Research
・Survey Target: Condominiums for sale nationwide

・Number of Sample Cases: 146,455 buildings
・Survey Method: Statistical processing and aggregation of condominium information collected by Mansion Research

Rising New Condominium Prices Driven by Soaring Construction Costs

In recent years, as construction costs continue to rise, new condominium prices have also significantly increased in conjunction. The trend in the past few years has been particularly remarkable, and understanding this change in construction costs is an unavoidable and important point for comprehending the overall structure of the condominium market.

Construction Cost Deflator Shows a Sharp Rise in "Real Costs"

The construction cost deflator is an index used to grasp the movement of "real construction costs" by removing the effects of price fluctuations, allowing us to capture the essential rise in costs that is not easily visible from nominal prices alone. This index had been on a gradual upward trend for a long time, but its slope changed significantly around 2020. Due to complex factors such as soaring material prices, rising labor costs, and disruptions in the supply chain, construction costs have been sharply pushed up, reaching approximately a 20% increase in 2025 compared to 2000. This suggests that the market has entered a phase of structural cost increases beyond mere inflation.

Structure of Increasing Difficulty in Land Acquisition and Decreasing Supply

In addition to the rising construction costs, the difficulty of acquiring land for condominium development has been increasing year by year. Especially in urban areas, prime locations have already been largely developed, and new development sites are prone to high acquisition prices due to competitive bidding. On the other hand, looking at regional cities, the feasibility of development itself is becoming stricter when considering population trends and demand forecasts. Against this backdrop, the number of new condominiums completed across Japan is on a downward trend, and supply is being narrowed down.

An Era of Intensified Developer Selection

Under these circumstances, developers' decisions on development have become more cautious and selective. Instead of simply developing because land is available, the certainty of being able to sell out and maintain the projected price is strongly questioned. As a prerequisite, it is necessary to precisely assess the potential of the area. Especially in regional cities.