Domestic Surveyed Companies' Hiring Intent Drops 9 Points Quarter-over-Quarter

ManpowerGroup K.K. (Headquarters: Minato-ku, Tokyo; President and CEO: Makoto Yoshida), a comprehensive human resources services company, announced the results of the "ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey" for the third quarter of 2026 (July-September). The survey is based on the question: "How do you expect the total number of employees (including contract and temporary workers) at your location to change in the three months from July to September 2026 compared with the current quarter (April to June 2026)?" This survey is the most extensive forward-looking survey conducted quarterly by ManpowerGroup, covering 42 countries and territories.

For this survey, responses were obtained from 1,034 companies in Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. The seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook (NEO) was +5%, a decrease of 9 points from the previous quarter and 12 points year-over-year. The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey also provides results by three regions (Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya), by industry (9 industries*¹), and by organization size.

Starting from the Q1 2026 survey, the industry classification has been updated to conform to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Past data has also been reclassified, allowing for consistent trend and change comparisons as before.

*¹ 9 Industries: "Construction/Real Estate," "Finance/Insurance," "Hospitality," "Information Services," "Manufacturing," "Professional/Scientific/Technical Services," "Public Administration/Healthcare/Social Assistance," "Trade/Logistics," "Utilities/Natural Resources"

What is the Net Employment Outlook?

The Net Employment Outlook is calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who expect a decrease in staffing levels (20%) from the percentage who expect an increase (21%), then applying a seasonal adjustment factor*² (+5%).

*² Seasonal Adjustment: A value estimated to remove the effects of regular seasonal variations in data. It is applied in countries where the survey has been conducted for more than four years. In Japan, it has been applied since Q3 2006, and all analysis values are based on seasonally adjusted data.

Net Employment Outlook for 42 Countries/Territories: Global Average is +26%, Japan is +5%

Of the 42 countries and territories surveyed, 39 reported positive hiring plans. Japan's hiring sentiment, down 12 points year-over-year, suggests a cautious trend.

Figure 1: Seasonally Adjusted Net Employment Outlook by Country (%)

Japan Q3 2026 by Industry: 6 out of 9 Industries Expect to Increase Staffing

In the domestic industry breakdown, 6 out of 9 industries plan to increase staffing. The most active hiring is expected in "Information Services," with a NEO of +23%, though this is down 10 points year-over-year.

Figure 2: Employment Outlook by Industry

Japan Q3 2026 by Organization Size: 4 out of 6 Organization Sizes Expect to Increase Staffing

In the domestic breakdown by organization size, 4 out of 6 sizes plan to increase staffing. Organizations with 1,000-4,999 employees reported the highest outlook at +14%, a decrease of 13 points year-over-year.

Figure 3: Employment Outlook by Organization Size

Analysis of Survey Results

Japan's NEO for Q3 2026 is +5%, a 9-point drop from +14% in the previous quarter and a 12-point drop year-over-year. Given that the global average is +26% and the Asia Pacific & Middle East region maintains a steady +28%, Japan's slowdown is relatively significant.

However, this result suggests that companies are not necessarily planning large-scale layoffs but are instead being cautious about hiring and backfilling vacancies. In Japan, only 21% of companies reported an intention to increase staffing (compared to the previous quarter), while 58% reported no change. Globally, 42% reported an intention to increase, and 40% reported no change. This highlights Japan's weaker hiring appetite and stronger tendency to maintain the status quo.

Furthermore, the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in staffing is 20% in Japan, compared to a global average of 16%, indicating that Japan is not uniquely moving towards significant contraction. The decline is likely the result of more companies holding off on new hires and backfills to maintain current staff levels amid an uncertain outlook.

Background factors include geopolitical risks such as the situation in the Middle East, global economic uncertainty, difficulties in quickly replacing departing employees, the impact of a worsening economic environment on workforce planning, and declining demand for certain roles due to market changes. Particularly in manufacturing and automotive-related sectors, hiring decisions may be becoming more cautious due to slowing external demand and business uncertainty.

Going forward, the traditional approach of filling gaps through external hiring may reach its limits. The Q3 2026 results indicate a shift towards a more integrated talent management approach that consistently designs what kind of people to hire, where to place them, and how to develop them. Companies are being called upon to shift their focus from securing "quantity" to improving "quality" and rebuild their approach to human resource utilization.

ManpowerGroup K.K. Right Management Division

Ryoichi Asahara, Senior Consultant

Joined Right Management Japan K.K. (now ManpowerGroup K.K.) in 2006.

He is involved in a wide range of activities, from hard-side consulting such as building HR systems to planning and implementing soft-side measures like career design training by age group, career development support seminars for managers, new employee training, change management training, and evaluator training. He has extensive consulting experience with a wide range of clients, from large corporations to small and medium-sized enterprises.

For more details on the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, please visit the following URL:

https://www.manpowergroup.jp/company/r_center/e_survey/

【Survey Overview】

Survey Period

April 1, 2026 – April 30, 2026

Survey Target

Companies in the following 9 industries in Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya:

"Construction/Real Estate," "Finance/Insurance," "Hospitality," "Information Services," "Manufacturing," "Professional/Scientific/Technical Services"

Survey Question

"How do you expect the total number of employees (including contract and temporary workers) at your location to change in the three months from July to September 2026 compared with the current quarter (April to June 2026)?"

Survey Method

Web-based questionnaire survey

Valid Responses

1,034 companies in Japan; 40,592 public and private organizations across 42 countries and territories worldwide

Survey History

With a history of over 60 years, this survey is one of the most trusted employment outlook surveys in the world. It began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and in 2003, 13 countries and territories, including Japan, participated. The number of participating countries has continued to grow, with 42 countries and territories taking part this time.

*The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey (for Q4 2026) is scheduled to be released in September 2026.

About ManpowerGroup K.K.

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