Top 3 Security Risks Japan Should Prioritize: Middle East, Taiwan, and Cyberattacks

[KSI Online Survey] Public Opinion Survey on Japan's Defense Enhancement and National Security (5th Edition)

Kioicho Strategy Institute Co., Ltd. (KSI, headquarters: Minato Ward, Tokyo; President and CEO: Natsuya Bessho), a public affairs consulting firm providing comprehensive support in policy advocacy and risk management for companies challenging new industries, conducts online surveys approximately twice a month, focusing on current affairs topics.

Survey Overview

Japan's surrounding security environment is becoming increasingly severe due to intensified activities by neighboring countries such as China, North Korea, and Russia. Additionally, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have featured cyberattacks and drone warfare, indicating a shift in the nature of warfare. To understand public perceptions regarding Japan's defense enhancement and national security, an online survey was conducted on May 16, targeting 1,000 individuals aged 18 and over nationwide.

Summary of Survey Results

87% Feel 'Insecure' About Japan's Security Environment, 9% Do Not

Japan's security environment is perceived as increasingly severe due to China's rising defense budget and intensified activities in the East China Sea, North Korea's nuclear and missile development, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and continued military activities in regions including the Northern Territories, and military clashes between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East. A combined 87.8% of respondents said they feel 'very insecure' or 'somewhat insecure' about Japan's current security environment (up from 84.6% in the previous survey on December 26, 2025), while only 9.5% said they feel 'not at all insecure' or 'not very insecure' (down from 11.5%).

Regionally, those who selected 'very insecure' were relatively higher in the Chugoku and Kyushu regions, at around 40%. By occupation, company executives and organizational leaders exceeded 40%, while teachers, healthcare and welfare workers, full-time housewives/househusbands, and pensioners/unemployed individuals were in the 20% range. By political party support, Komeito Party supporters (excluding those who simultaneously support the Centrist Reform Coalition) were in the 60% range, followed by the Centrist Reform Coalition (excluding those who simultaneously support the Constitutional Democratic Party or Komeito) and supporters of the Sanseito Party, both in the 50% range. LDP supporters were in the 30% range.

Top Security Risks Japan Should Prioritize

When asked which security risk Japan should monitor most closely, 'Middle East situation' ranked highest at 31.7%, followed by 'Taiwan situation' at 29.0% and 'cyberattacks' at 12.3%.

Over 90% Feel Warfare Has 'Changed' Compared to the Past

In conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, attacks using cyber warfare and drones have been observed. A combined 93.1% of respondents said warfare has 'changed significantly' or 'changed to some extent' compared to the past, while only 3.8% said it has 'not changed at all' or 'hardly changed'.

The emergence of relatively inexpensive weapons such as drones is seen as having 'significant impact' or 'some impact' on the nature of warfare by 93.1% of respondents, while only 3.2% believe it has 'no impact' or 'little impact'.

Defense Spending: 35% Support Raising to '2% of GDP'

Japan's defense-related budget for FY2026 is approximately 1.9% of GDP (based on FY2022 levels). The government has indicated in its 2022 National Security Strategy that it aims to raise this to 2% by FY2027. Additionally, in its January 2026 National Defense Strategy, the U.S. signaled its expectation for Japan and other allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. When asked about Japan's future defense spending, 35.4% said it 'should be raised to 2% of GDP', the highest response, followed by 25.3% who believe it 'should be increased beyond 2%', 15.8% who think 'the increase to 2% should be halted and maintained at current levels', and 7.4% who believe it 'should be reduced below current levels'.

Breaking down those who said 'should be increased beyond 2%' by gender, men were in the 30% range, while women were in the teens. Regionally, Kyushu had the highest proportion at over 30%. By occupation, educators were the highest at over 50%. By economic sentiment, those who feel the economy is 'good' reached over 50%, while those who feel it is 'bad' were in the 20% range. By political party support, Japan Conservative Party supporters were in the 60% range (highest), followed by Sanseito at 50%, and LDP, Democratic Party for the People, and Team Mirai in the 30% range. The Constitutional Democratic Party (excluding those who simultaneously support the Centrist faction), Reiwa Shinsengumi were in single digits, while the Communist Party and others were at zero.

54.1% Believe the Government Is 'Not Responding Adequately' to Security Environment

Considering the current global situation, 54.1% of respondents believe the government is either 'not responding adequately' or 'somewhat not responding adequately' to Japan's security environment, while 32.9% believe it is 'responding adequately' or 'somewhat responding adequately'.

50% 'Trust' Japan's Defense System, 42% Do Not

A combined 50.4% of respondents said they 'very much trust' or 'somewhat trust' Japan's current defense system, while 42.7% said they 'do not trust at all' or 'do not trust very much'.

Opposition and Support for Revising the 'Three Non-Nuclear Principles' Are Nearly Equal

On whether Japan should revise its 'Three Non-Nuclear Principles' (not possessing, not producing, and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons), 41.0% opposed (vs. 41.5% in the previous survey on December 26, 2025), while 40.4% supported (vs. 41.2%). 'Don't know' responses accounted for 18.6%.

Among those who supported revision, men were in the 40% range, while women were in the 20% range. Regionally, Chubu and Kinki regions exceeded 40%, while Hokkaido was the lowest at around 20%. By political party support, Conservatives were highest at over 70%, followed by LDP, Democratic Party for the People, and Team Mirai in the 50% range. Meanwhile, Centrists (including and excluding simultaneous support for CDP or Komeito), CDP (excluding simultaneous Centrist supporters), Komeito (excluding simultaneous Centrist supporters), Communist Party, and Reiwa were in the 20% range.

46% Oppose, 31% Support U.S.-Japan 'Nuclear Sharing'

On 'nuclear sharing'—the deployment and joint use of U.S. nuclear weapons in Japan—46.9% opposed (up from 43.6% in the previous survey), while 31.7% supported (down from 36.2%). 'Don't know' responses accounted for 21.4%.

Among supporters, company executives and organizational leaders were at over 50%, the highest level. Among cabinet supporters, 40% supported, while among non-supporters, only 10% supported. By political party support, Conservatives led at over 70%, followed by LDP and Sanseito in the 50% range. In contrast, Centrists (including simultaneous CDP or Komeito supporters), CDP (excluding simultaneous Centrist supporters), and Komeito (excluding simultaneous Centrist supporters) were in single digits or zero.

47% Believe the U.S. 'May Not Defend Japan Depending on the Situation' in a Crisis

The U.S.-Japan Security Treaty obligates the U.S. to defend Japan if it comes under armed attack. When asked whether they believe the U.S. would defend Japan in a crisis, 47.6% said 'depending on the situation, the U.S. may not defend us' (up from 45.4% in the previous survey), the highest response. This was followed by 'they will defend us, though not as a top priority' at 25.3% (down from 27.5%), 'they will not defend us' at 18.7% (up from 15.9%), and 'they will defend us as a top priority' at 2.6% (down from 3.1%).

Among those who selected 'they will not defend us', when analyzed by cabinet support level, among cabinet supporters