Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living [Next Month's Consumption Forecast - July 2026] (Consumption Willingness Index)

Hakuhodo Inc. (Head Office: Tokyo), a think tank, conducts a monthly survey on consumption outlook, including asking 1,500 men and women aged 20-69 to rate their "consumption willingness for the next month." The results are announced as the "Next Month's Consumption Forecast."

*Survey conducted June 1-9.

The consumption willingness index for July 2026 is 46.3 points. This is an increase of +2.2 points compared to the previous month, and remained flat at -0.5 points compared to the previous year.

[Point 1] While summer-related willingness increases, prolonged price hikes lead to a year-on-year decrease in consumption willingness, particularly among men.

July, which marks the summer vacation and bonus season, is typically a month when the consumption willingness index rises. This year, it increased by +2.2 points from the previous month. While it remained flat year-on-year at -0.5 points, a breakdown by gender shows a notable decrease of -1.9 points for men and an increase of +1.0 point for women. This significant drop among men has had a major impact, resulting in the lowest July figure since the survey began in 2012.

Looking at the reasons for the consumption willingness index (open-ended responses), positive responses regarding consumption increased (263 cases in June to 365 cases in July) compared to the previous month, while negative responses decreased (983 cases in June to 851 cases in July). Specifically, positive responses included an increase in "seasonal willingness to spend (due to summer vacation, wanting summer clothes, etc.)" (51 cases in June to 102 cases in July) and "financial leeway (due to bonuses, etc.)" (33 cases in June to 64 cases in July). Among negative responses, "don't want to go out in the hot weather" increased significantly (2 cases in June to 46 cases in July), while "saving money because I spent a lot this month" (126 cases in June to 59 cases in July) and "saving/restraining due to financial reasons" (231 cases in June to 169 cases in July) decreased.

Compared to the previous year, both positive responses (349 cases in July 2025 to 365 cases in July 2026) and negative responses (879 cases in July 2025 to 851 cases in July 2026) remained largely unchanged. Specifically, in positive responses, "seasonal willingness to spend (due to summer vacation, wanting summer clothes, etc.)" showed a slight increase for women (31 cases in July 2025 to 28 cases in July 2026 for men; 47 cases in July 2025 to 74 cases in July 2026 for women), but remained flat for men. In negative responses, "saving/restraining due to financial reasons" (195 cases in July 2025 to 169 cases in July 2026) showed a slight decrease overall.

Furthermore, "price hikes, rising costs, and the weak yen" remained largely unchanged both month-on-month and year-on-year, continuing at a high level (152 cases in July 2025 to 152 cases in June 2026 to 171 cases in July 2026).

While willingness to spend for summer vacation and bonus season in July increased from the previous month, there is a gender gap compared to the previous year, with a decrease among men. Coupled with the impact of prolonged price hikes, consumption willingness is expected to not reach typical levels, particularly among men.

[Point 2] Consumption intentions increase month-on-month and year-on-year in multiple categories, including "beverages."

The percentage of people who "have specific items they want to buy or services they want to use" was 27.4%, an increase of +1.2 points from the previous month. Year-on-year, it remained flat at +0.4 points.

Looking at consumption intentions across 16 categories, "beverages," "books/entertainment," and "interior goods" increased by 20 cases or more month-on-month. Year-on-year, "cosmetics" and "beverages" increased by 20 cases or more. Although the consumption willingness index is at its lowest for the month, consumption intentions are expected to rise in multiple categories leading up to summer vacation and bonus season.

NEWS RELEASE

For a detailed survey report, please visit the Hakuhodo News Release page.