Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living [Consumer Forecast for Next Month - May 2026] (Consumer Spending Sentiment Index)

Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living, a think tank of Hakuhodo Inc. (Headquarters: Tokyo), conducts monthly surveys on the future of consumption, including scoring "consumer spending sentiment for the next month" among 1,500 men and women aged 20-69. The results are announced as the "Consumer Forecast for Next Month."

*Survey conducted from April 2-4.

The Consumer Spending Sentiment Index for May 2026 was 45.0 points. This was flat month-on-month (+0.2pt) and an increase year-on-year (+1.0pt).

[Point 1] Enthusiasm for major holidays is rising, but concerns about inflation and global affairs are strengthening.

Typically, the Consumer Spending Sentiment Index for May does not change much from April, despite the presence of major holidays, and this year it remained flat month-on-month at +0.2pt. Compared to the previous year, which was the lowest value for May in the past five years, it increased by +1.0pt.

Looking at the reasons for the Consumer Spending Sentiment Index (free responses), positive responses for consumption (336 cases in April → 344 cases in May) were almost flat compared to the previous month, while negative responses (837 cases in April → 883 cases in May) increased. Specifically, among positive responses, "there are major holidays" (2 cases in April → 61 cases in May) and "have travel plans" (25 cases in April → 43 cases in May) increased, while "preparing for a new life" (46 cases in April → 5 cases in May) and "want spring clothes" (35 cases in April → 8 cases in May) decreased. Among negative responses, "saving/enduring for financial reasons" (167 cases in April → 192 cases in May) increased.

Compared to the previous year, positive responses for consumption (334 cases in May 2025 → 344 cases in May 2026) were almost flat, while negative responses (857 cases in May 2025 → 883 cases in May 2026) slightly increased. Specifically, there were no items that significantly increased or decreased among positive responses. Among negative responses, "want to save/be frugal" (33 cases in May 2025 → 58 cases in May 2026) slightly increased.

Furthermore, "high prices/price increases/yen depreciation" increased month-on-month and slightly increased year-on-year (185 cases in May 2025 → 152 cases in April 2026 → 202 cases in May 2026). In addition, continuing from the previous month, "global social unrest" such as concerns about the worsening situation in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices (6 cases in May 2025 → 16 cases in April 2026 → 22 cases in May 2026) continues to show no signs of calming down.

Although there is a rise in enthusiasm for the major holidays unique to May, the impact of high prices on consumer spending sentiment has recently been on an increasing trend. It seems necessary to continue monitoring how this will affect future consumer spending sentiment, including the worsening situation in the Middle East.

[Point 2] Consumer intent increased month-on-month in holiday-related categories, especially travel, driven mainly by men.

The proportion of people who "have something specific they want to buy or a service they want to use" was 26.1%, which was a slight decrease month-on-month (-0.8pt) but a slight increase year-on-year (+0.6pt). By gender, both month-on-month and year-on-year, men showed an increase, while women showed a decrease (men: month-on-month +1.7pt / year-on-year +3.4pt; women: month-on-month -3.2pt / year-on-year -2.1pt).

Looking at consumer intent across 16 categories, month-on-month, two categories, "travel" and "leisure," increased by more than 20 cases, with a notable increase in "leisure" among men. Year-on-year, two categories, "daily necessities" and "beverages," decreased by more than 20 cases. Influenced by the major holidays, May is likely to see an increase in consumer intent in travel-related categories, driven by men.

NEWS RELEASE

For a detailed survey report, please visit the Hakuhodo News Release page.