Research Findings: Evacuation Drills Out of Sync with Regional Disaster Scenarios — Discrepancies Revealed in Survey of 2,577 Educators across 12 Prefectures

Evacuation drills are a recurring event in nursery schools and schools. However, are these drills designed based on the disasters that could actually occur in the local area?

The NPO Association for Disaster Reduction Education (led by Board Chair Takeshi Enatsu), in collaboration with Professor Yasunori Hata of the Nihon University College of Risk Management, conducted a survey of 2,577 educational and childcare personnel across 12 prefectures.

Survey Results: Perception of Disaster Scenarios
- 85% reported they 'did not know' or 'had a different imagination of' the regional disaster scenarios.
- 69% indicated that their current preparations or drills were 'insufficient for the scenarios' or that they 'did not know'.

The issue revealed is not that evacuation drills are not being conducted. Especially in childcare centers, kindergartens, and centers for early childhood education and care, drills are held almost monthly, and staff are taking them seriously. However, the daily drill content may not be adequately linked to regional disaster factors such as predicted earthquake intensity, the presence of tsunamis, dangers along evacuation routes, or building conditions.

This study highlights the structural issues of such drills and proposes the need to reconstruct them—using regional disaster prevention plans and damage scenarios as a starting point—so that children and staff can observe situations, make judgments, and take appropriate action.

The findings were presented at the 32nd Academic Conference of the Japan Society for Disaster Information in March 2026.

Presentation Paper: 'Structural Challenges in Evacuation Drills That Hinder the Development of Judgment Skills: Reconstructing Drill Design Based on Regional Disaster Prevention Plans and Damage Scenarios'

Authors: Takeshi Enatsu (Board Chair, NPO Association for Disaster Reduction Education), Yasunori Hata (Professor, Nihon University College of Risk Management)

[Research Announcement] A scientific approach to the 30-year-unchanged evacuation drills in Japan.
Challenge: The 'Gap' between 'Scenarios' and 'Drills'
Regions have pre-determined disaster/damage projections, including earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, flooding, building damage, and risks on evacuation routes. However, actual evacuation drills often end with simple procedure checks—listening to announcements, lining up quietly, moving to a designated area, or evacuating quickly—without confirming those projected scenarios.

Evacuation drills are fundamentally meant to be practice for 'how to act' against damages after understanding 'what kind of damage could occur.' If projected damage and drill content are not connected, even disasters within the scope of the scenarios will become 'unexpected' in the field.

Evacuation drills must be designed based on regional damage projections.

In 'Evacuation Drill 2.0,' participants first learn 'what damage could occur,' identify dangers on the spot, and develop the ability to choose actions that minimize those risks.

Evacuation drills are not just about confirming if one can move according to instructions. It is education aimed at enabling children themselves to predict risks, notice dangers, make judgments, and act according to the projected damage.

Changes in the Field
In pilot regions, a shift is underway from drills that repeat fixed poses to training that involves judging situations based on regional damage projections and selecting appropriate actions.