Asuka Corporation Releases 'Childcare Workforce White Paper 2026: Childcare Careers in an Era of Declining Birthrate'

Asuka Corporation (Headquarters: Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo; CEO: Kiyosada Hagino; https://www.g-asuka.co.jp/), which operates the childcare research project 'Konnect Lab (https://konnect-labo.jp/)'—where children, the future, and all people Connect (connect and bond)—has published the 'Childcare Workforce White Paper 2026: Childcare Careers in an Era of Declining Birthrate,' a comprehensive analysis of structural challenges in securing childcare professionals.

■ Background and Significance of the White Paper

Restructuring of Childbirth and Childcare Demand

Japan's birth count has declined to approximately 687,000 in 2024, with the total fertility rate dropping to 1.20, the lowest on record. Meanwhile, childcare-related systems are undergoing a major transformation, including the April 2025 revision of the Childcare and Family Care Leave Act and the full-scale implementation of the 'Every Child Can Attend Nursery' system starting in FY2026.

Accompanying these changes, childcare service usage patterns are diversifying. Beyond traditional full-time, long-hour care, demand is emerging for short-time use, spot care, community-based parenting support, and visiting childcare.

Mismatch Between 'Workable Conditions' and 'Needed Roles'

While the number of registered childcare workers reaches approximately 1.79 million, only about 680,000 are actively working in childcare settings, leaving an estimated 1.11 million as 'potential childcare workers.' This gap reflects not an absolute shortage of personnel, but a structural mismatch between 'workable conditions' and 'needed roles.'

This White Paper combines large-scale surveys of active childcare workers, potential workers, and job seekers with existing statistical and policy analysis to uncover the root causes of workforce shortages. Drawing on Asuka's extensive experience operating diverse childcare and parenting support services—from certified nurseries to hospital-based and corporate childcare, parenting support hubs, and visiting childcare—the report presents five concrete policy recommendations for childcare workforce strategy beyond 2026.

■ Survey Overview

The White Paper is based on two large-scale internet surveys conducted by 'Konnect Lab,' operated by Asuka Corporation, under the 'Resapy®' research marketing program provided by IDEATECH Co., Ltd.

Survey A: Survey on Diverse Work Styles and Career Paths of Childcare Workers

Target: 108 active childcare workers, 93 potential childcare workers (holding certification but not currently employed)

Period: December 1–11, 2025

Valid Responses: 108 from active workers, 93 from potential workers

Survey B: Survey on Job-Seeking Behavior of Childcare Workers in the AI Era

Target: Childcare workers who have searched for childcare industry jobs online or via AI within the past year

Period: December 1–2, 2025

Valid Responses: 107

Additionally, the White Paper incorporates supplementary data from various fixed-point surveys previously conducted by Konnect Lab targeting parents, students, and nursery staff.

The full White Paper can be downloaded free of charge at the following URL:

https://storage.googleapis.com/studio-design-asset-files/projects/p6aorjnJqR/s-1x1_25d62221-7650-4345-aa98-94bc9bc0e1cd.pdf

■ Summary of Survey Results

① 1.11 Million Potential Childcare Workers: A 'Mismatch of Conditions,' Not a 'Shortage of Qualified Personnel'

While approximately 1.79 million individuals are registered as childcare workers, only about 680,000 are currently working in childcare roles, meaning around 1.11 million are not actively employed. The top reason childcare-certified individuals do not seek childcare jobs is 'wages not meeting expectations' (47.5%), followed by 'interest in other professions' (43.1%) and 'concerns about responsibility and accidents' (40.0%).

② Challenges Faced by Active Childcare Workers: 'Low Wages' and 'Long Working Hours' Are Nearly Equal

When asked about current work challenges, 'low wages' (38.0%) and 'long working hours' (37.0%) were nearly equal. 'Limited opportunities for career advancement' (29.6%) ranked third.

This indicates that improving only wages or only working hours is insufficient for retaining active childcare workers; both aspects must be addressed simultaneously.

③ One in Four Desires 'Part-Time Regular Employment': Diversifying Work Preferences

Among active childcare workers, 'regular full-time employment' was the most desired (64.8%), but 'regular part-time employment' was also preferred by 25.0%, meaning about one in four desires part-time regular roles.

This reflects changing work preferences based on life stages and career plans, highlighting the limitations of uniform employment models.

④ Top Return-to-Work Condition for Potential Childcare Workers: 'Part-Time Work'

Among potential childcare workers interested in returning, the most common condition for reconsidering return was 'if part-time work is available' (51.2%), followed by 'if wages improve' (43.9%) and 'if flexible working hours are available' (43.9%).

Approximately 44.1% of potential childcare workers expressed interest in returning, indicating a significant pool willing to re-enter under the right conditions.

⑤ Nearly 90% of Active Childcare Workers Interested in Working Outside Nurseries

With the full implementation of the 'Every Child Can Attend Nursery' system approaching, the scope for childcare professionals is expanding from nurseries into the broader community.

88.8% of active childcare workers expressed interest in working outside nurseries, with high interest specifically in 'short-term childcare facilities' (54.2%), 'parenting support centers' (39.6%), and 'after-school clubs' (30.2%).

⑥ 95.3% of Job Seekers Consult Generative AI: 'Workplace Atmosphere' Surpasses 'Salary'

A survey of childcare workers who searched for jobs online or via AI within the past year found that 95.3% had consulted generative AI (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini) for advice. Using generative AI for job searching is no longer exceptional but a standard information-gathering method.

Furthermore, the most sought-after information via generative AI was 'workplace atmosphere and ease of working' (52.3%), surpassing 'salary and benefits' (49.5%). Job seekers most want to know the 'on-the-ground reality' that numbers alone cannot convey.

■ Building Systems for Attraction, Retention, and Mobility: Five Proposals to Address Structural Challenges

In its third section, the White Paper presents five proposals to build systems enabling childcare workers to 'be attracted,' 'stay,' and 'move between roles.'

Proposal 1: Establish Employment Models That Allow Flexible Work Style Choices Based on Life Stages

Create a 'no-need-to-quit employment cycle' that allows flexible changes in work style based on life stages and career plans—e.g., part-time work during child-rearing, full-time after children grow, and advancement to managerial or specialist roles after gaining experience.

Proposal 2: Develop Regional Childcare Workforce Deployment Models