In recent years, frequent heavy rains have had a significant impact on our lives. However, opportunities to correctly understand their mechanisms and dangers are limited.

Therefore, in this project, five faculty members from different specialized fields will convey the reality, risks, and countermeasures of heavy rains and disasters through our university's initiatives. "To know is to prepare." We hope this will empower individuals in their judgment and actions.

This time, we spoke with Associate Professor Kengo Nawata of the Department of Cultural Studies, Faculty of Humanities, Fukuoka University (Specialty: Social Psychology, Group Psychology).

<The Psychological Mechanism During Emergencies: 'Normalcy Bias'>

Imagine this: Your area is forecast to experience heavy rainfall at a warning level or river flooding. The local government has already opened evacuation shelters. In such a situation, can you evacuate without hesitation?

When faced with such a situation, people tend to think, "It's unlikely I'll be affected" or "It's not that bad yet." In psychology, this is called "normalcy bias at work."

Normalcy bias is not a personality flaw but a common human psychological mechanism. In emergencies, a similar psychological state can occur in anyone.

When normalcy bias is active, people tend to underestimate dangerous situations and continue their usual behavior, which is considered one of the factors that delay evacuation during emergencies.

In the Great East Japan Earthquake, there were cases where warnings did not sufficiently lead to evacuation behavior even under urgent circumstances. Normalcy bias has been pointed out as one of the factors behind this.

Created by: Fukuoka University

<Deciding Your Actions Based on Others: 'Conformity'>

In addition to normalcy bias, another psychological mechanism that can occur during evacuation is conformity. This is the tendency to align one's actions with those around them when it's difficult to judge the situation independently, and it's commonly observed in daily life. "Everyone is choosing that menu, so I'll have it too" is also conformity.

While conformity often leads to rational and correct decisions, it can also lead to danger during disasters.

For example, if you are caught in a disaster in a building you've never been to before, and you evacuate in the direction everyone else is fleeing without fully understanding why, that is conformity. You base your judgment on the actions of those around you, so if they are acting incorrectly, you will too. It's not uncommon for people to be swept along in a chain reaction, with incorrect actions spreading like an avalanche.

On the other hand, conformity can also work in a positive direction, such as "The people around me are evacuating quickly, so I should too."

Since conformity can work both positively and negatively, it is important to create an atmosphere where people naturally "conform" to appropriate evacuation actions. This atmosphere is one of the basic concepts explaining group behavior and is called "norms" in psychology.

<The 'Boy Who Cried Wolf Effect' That Occurs with Repeated False Alarms>

Heavy rain alerts are often issued over wide areas, and many do not actually result in damage. When such "false alarms" are repeated, people gradually start to think, "It probably won't happen this time either," leading to delayed evacuations. This psychological state is called the "Boy Who Cried Wolf effect" and can hinder evacuation behavior.

However, this does not mean that warnings should not be issued. In the past, there was a cautious approach to issuing evacuation advisories due to concerns about causing panic among residents. But since the Great East Japan Earthquake, protecting lives has been prioritized, and early evacuation is encouraged with strong wording.

This approach is based on past disaster experiences that "humans are reluctant to flee in emergencies."

Explanation by Professor Nawata. Explanation of the Boy Who Cried Wolf Effect (Created by: Fukuoka University)

<Towards a Society Where We Are Praised for "It's Good It Was Just a False Alarm" or "You Did Well to Evacuate">

When we evacuate and it turns out to be unnecessary (a "false alarm"), we tend to think it was an overreaction. We try to act cautiously, fearing "false alarms."

Professor Nawata emphasizes, "Protecting ourselves from low-probability dangers often involves many 'false alarms.' For example, the probability of a car accident is not very high, but wearing a seatbelt can save your life in the unlikely event it happens. That extra step is necessary, even if it turns out to be a 'false alarm.'"

"I believe we need to share a societal value that 'fleeing in an emergency is the norm, and it's better to do so in the end.' Instead of thinking, 'You didn't need to evacuate,' we need a shift in mindset and the creation of social norms where we think, 'I'm glad nothing happened,' or 'It's good it was just a false alarm.' Evacuating immediately is something to be praised."

<Know 'Normalcy Bias' and 'Conformity,' and Don't Fear 'False Alarms'>

Normalcy bias occurs during emergencies. To prepare for such "just in case" scenarios, it's important to recognize on a daily basis that you too might fall victim to normalcy bias.

Professor Nawata states, "Humans tend to choose 'not to flee' even when they should. It's important to be aware of this psychological tendency. If you can objectively observe yourself thinking, 'Ah, I'm not going to flee,' you might realize, 'Maybe conformity is happening,' or 'Maybe normalcy bias is at work,' which could prompt you to reconsider, 'Perhaps I should evacuate after all.'"

Simply knowing that "conformity can swing both ways, and normalcy bias is a natural psychological state inherent to humans" might help us act calmly during disasters.

When we receive forecasts or warnings, we may be experiencing normalcy bias and conformity. At the same time, we may be doubting the "Boy Who Cried Wolf effect" and fearing "false alarms." These psychological states are not unusual and can happen to anyone. That's why, instead of thinking, "It's not bad enough to evacuate," we should act when we think, "Maybe it's a little early." That awareness is what protects your life and the lives of your loved ones.

◎ Mini Information ◎

Psychology is the study of human behavior stemming from the mind. We cannot build a better society without understanding what people think and how they act.

For example, it is often said that "Japanese people are sensitive to atmosphere and value cooperation, leading to strong conformity pressure." However, research shows that conformity occurs in all countries and regions, and "it is not that only Japanese people are prone to conformity."

Therefore, instead of explaining it solely by national character, such as "Japanese people are weak to conformity pressure," it is important to focus on differences in situations and individual variations.

FACT BOX

  • Source: PR TIMES
  • Category: 教育