Continued Polarization in New Car Market with "High Registration, Low Kei" Trend, and Tight Used Car Market Despite Reduced Listings with 10.6% Increase in Average Transaction Price / Used Car Market Statistics Report (May 2026 Edition)

Fabrica Communications Inc. (Headquarters: Nagoya City, Aichi Prefecture, CEO: Masato Taniguchi), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fabrica Holdings Inc., which operates the used car information site "Kuruma Erabi dot com," is pleased to announce the "Used Car Market Statistics Report" summarizing the movements of the used car market based on new and used car registration numbers in April 2026 and sales trends on our site.

*This article is published with the same content as the "Used Car Market Statistics Report" released on "symphony - Used Car Sales Support Information," operated by Fabrica Communications Inc.

This Month's Core

Domestic new car sales in May 2026 were 332,997 units, a +2.8% increase year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of growth. However, while registered vehicles increased by +5.6%, Kei cars decreased by -2.1%, clearly showing the "High Registration, Low Kei" (※) trend. On the other hand, in the used car auction B2B market, the average transaction price at USS rose further to 1.31 million yen (up 10.6% year-on-year) from 1.221 million yen in April, and despite a -3.0% decrease in listings for the first time in six months, the supply-demand balance remains tight. Even with the normalization of new car production, the classic chain of "increase in new cars → increase in trade-ins → increase in used car supply → market decline" is not yet in effect, and the structural tightening of used car supply and demand is likely to continue at least through the summer.

※ High Registration, Low Kei: An industry abbreviation representing a market trend where sales of registered vehicles (standard cars) increase and sales of Kei cars decrease. The opposite is "Low Registration, High Kei."

Section 1: This Month's Macro Environment

New Car Market - Registered Vehicles Strong, but Kei Cars Negative for Second Consecutive Month

Domestic new car sales in May 2026 (announced by JAMA and Kei-car Association) totaled 332,997 units, a +2.8% increase year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of positive growth for the combined total of registered vehicles and Kei cars.

Registered vehicles accounted for 214,994 units (+5.6% year-on-year, according to JAMA's vehicle type registration statistics). Passenger cars led the way, with standard passenger cars at 120,416 units (+3.5%) and small passenger cars at 67,070 units (+8.7%). Among commercial vehicles, small commercial vehicles saw a significant increase of 17,119 units (+13.4%), while standard commercial vehicles decreased by 9,470 units (-4.0%). This represents a slowdown from April's +17.6% (effect of deferred registrations due to the abolition of the environmental tax) and appears to have settled into a pace of gradual recovery based on actual demand. By brand, Toyota stood out with approximately 112,000 units (+12.6%), boosted by the lifting of order restrictions following partial improvements to the Noah/Voxy. In contrast, Nissan (-6.4%) and Mazda (-9.4%) continue to struggle (Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun, June 2, 2026 report).

Kei cars totaled 118,003 units (-2.1% year-on-year, according to Kei-car Association's new car sales report). This marks the second consecutive month of decline. The Kei-car Association analyzes that "this may be due to popular models that have been driving the market for some time now, with the effect of new models having diminished" (Kei-car Association report, announced June 1, 2026). Among manufacturers, Suzuki (42,124 units, -3.0%), Daihatsu (35,928 units, -0.7%), and Honda (19,102 units, +0.4%) remained largely flat. However, Nissan performed well with 11,949 units (+7.4%) due to the continued effect of the Roox full model change.

According to JAIA's preliminary report (announced June 4, 2026), imported cars totaled 26,673 units (+3.0% year-on-year). Foreign brand vehicles saw a slight decrease of 17,871 units (-1.8%), with European premium brands (Mercedes-Benz -10.2%, BMW -18.6%, VW -9.8%, Audi -26.5%) continuing their decline. On the other hand, overseas production and re-imported vehicles from Japanese manufacturers surged by 8,802 units (+14.3%), with Suzuki (Jimny etc. produced in India) leading the brands with 4,243 units.

Used Car Auction (B2B) – Listings Down for First Time in 6 Months, but Average Transaction Price Reaches Year-to-Date High

According to USS's monthly data for May 2026 (announced June 5, 2026), the number of listings was 281,669 units (97.0% of the previous year), falling below the previous year for the first time in six months. The main reasons are the reduction in the number of auctions held due to Golden Week holidays at USS Tokyo and the consolidation of the Hokuriku venue with the Nagoya venue (64 auctions in the previous year vs. 60 this year). The number of listings per auction exceeded the previous year (USS IR Library Monthly Data).

The number of successful bids was 185,404 units (99.0% of the previous year), remaining largely flat. The successful bid rate was 65.8% (64.5% in the previous year, +1.3 percentage points), remaining at the upper limit of the neutral range. The average transaction price rose further from 1.221 million yen in the previous month to 1.31 million yen (1.184 million yen in the previous year, 110.6%), reaching the high end of the year-to-date range on a monthly basis. The average transaction price has exceeded the previous year for nine consecutive months since October 2025.

Section 2: Deep Dive into This Month's Core - Why Are Transaction Prices Rising Despite Fewer Listings?

The "High Registration, Low Kei" Structure – Structural Factors Preventing Kei Cars from Recovering

The "registered vehicles plus, Kei cars minus" trend has continued for two consecutive months in April and May. While the primary reason in April was the change in system due to the abolition of the environmental tax, the decline in Kei cars continued in May even after the reaction subsided. There are three factors behind this.

First, the tax difference between registered vehicles and Kei cars. The environmental tax had a greater impact on registered vehicles, potentially causing a shift in demand from Kei cars to registered vehicles in April, a trend that may have continued in May. Second, inventory adjustment in the Kei car market. Sales for major manufacturers are mostly below the previous year or show only slight increases, and Daihatsu is still in the process of recovering its brand image since the certification issue in early 2024. Third, the high dependence on Toyota for registered vehicles. The +5.6% increase in registered vehicles is largely attributable to the Toyota brand (+12.6%), with significant contributions from individual factors such as the lifting of order restrictions for the Noah/Voxy and partial improvements to the Corolla. This does not necessarily indicate an improvement in supply and demand for the industry as a whole.

The decrease in new Kei car sales is structurally linked to a decrease in used Kei car supply in two to three years. For regional dealerships that focus on Kei cars, reviewing their procurement strategy will be a medium-term challenge.

Implications of Reduced Listings and Rising Average Transaction Prices – Continued Structural Tightening of Supply and Demand

The average transaction price at USS was 1.31 million yen, up 10.6% year-on-year and up 89,000 yen from the previous month. The fact that the average transaction price is rising despite a year-on-year decrease in listings (-3.0%) indicates a very strong "desire to purchase" among used car dealers. While listings remained flat (after adjusting for the number of auctions), the successful bid rate increased by 1.3 percentage points, and the average transaction price also rose significantly. The supply-demand imbalance, where demand exceeds supply, has continued for nine consecutive months since October 2025 and is not a temporary phenomenon.

The background to this structure includes the following:

Continued support from export demand. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz (March 2026 onwards) has effectively halted the logistics hub function via the UAE, and even after the US-Iran combat cessation memorandum, normalization of logistics is expected to take several months (Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun, June 2026 report). Vehicles that would normally be exported are being held domestically, but they are not immediately flowing into domestic auctions and are being held as inventory.

Thin supply pipeline from new cars to used cars. The deferral of registrations due to the abolition of the environmental tax in April was a timing adjustment, not an increase in trade-ins, and had no direct effect on increasing used car supply. The effect of trade-ins on the used car market is not expected until autumn 2026 at the earliest.

The reduction in gasoline subsidies (national average 169.80 yen, minimum subsidy 6 yen, Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun, June 25, 2026 report) is further boosting demand for fuel-efficient used cars.

Continuity with April – Strengthening the Analysis

In April's report, the core theme was "structural tightening of supply and demand where increased new car registrations do not lead to abundant used car supply, thus not depressing the B2B market." May's data further strengthens this analysis. The average transaction price has risen and remains high, from +14.6% (1.221 million yen) in April to +10.6% (1.31 million yen) in May.

Section 3: Vehicle Model and Body Type Trends

By Registered Vehicle Model Name – Corolla Surges, Toyota Dominates Top Ranks

According to JAMA's model name ranking (final May 2026 data), the Yaris ranked first with 10,401 units, but decreased by -11.5% year-on-year. The biggest change was the Corolla, which surged from 6th to 2nd place with 9,799 units (+48.2% year-on-year). Partial improvements made on May 12th strengthened both gasoline and hybrid lineups, and it is believed that order fulfillment has progressed due to the normalization of long-term supply constraints. The Raize ranked 3rd with 9,633 units (+8.6%), the Sienta 4th with 9,314 units (+25.6%), and the Roomy 5th with 8,381 units (+4.3%), with Toyota's compact SUVs and minivans occupying the top positions.

The Alphard, at 7th place with 6,454 units (+21.2%), indicates the continued strong demand for high-priced minivans. On the other hand, the Note (Nissan) continued to decline with 4,303 units (-21.4%), reflecting Nissan's struggles in domestic sales in the rankings. The structure where Toyota occupies 9 out of the top 10 models remains unchanged. Among BEVs, the bZ4X surged to 25th place with 2,036 units (+4,527.3% year-on-year), with the effect of significant price reductions in October last year continuing.

By Kei Car Model Name – N-BOX Recaptures Top Spot, Move Surges

According to the Kei-car Association's confirmed model name data (May 2026), the N-BOX (Honda) recaptured the top spot with 13,850 units (+2.1% year-on-year) from the previous month's Spacia. The Spacia (Suzuki) fell significantly year-on-year to 11,189 units (-8.1%), dropping to 2nd place. This highlights the consistent product appeal of the N-BOX.

The Move (Daihatsu) surged to 3rd place with 8,647 units (+59.7% year-on-year). This is primarily a rebound effect from extremely low year-on-year figures due to production and shipment restrictions following Daihatsu's certification issue in early 2024, but the approximately 1.6-fold increase clearly indicates Daihatsu's recovery in the Kei car market. The Roox (Nissan) continued its full model change effect with 7,367 units (+51.3%), rising to 5th place. The Every Wagon (Suzuki) saw a sharp increase of 2,844 units (+209.9%) due to the base effect. In contrast, the Tanto (-14.5%), Wagon R (-19.8%), and Alto (-21.6%) all declined.

Among Kei EVs, the Nissan Sakura was sluggish with 303 units (-64.7% year-on-year), indicating a significant slowdown in the Kei EV market.

By Imported Car Brand – Shrinking European Premium and Rise of Japanese Manufacturer Re-imports

JAIA data shows Suzuki (produced in India) maintaining its top position by brand with 4,243 units. Mercedes-Benz ranked second with 3,673 units (-10.2% year-on-year), but major European brands are mostly below the previous year. In the imported car segment of the Japanese market, a clear structural shift is occurring where European premium brands are shrinking and overseas production vehicles from Japanese manufacturers are filling the gap.

Section 4: This Month's Implications

Review Kei Car Procurement Strategies by the End of June

New Kei car sales have been negative year-on-year for two consecutive months, with the three major manufacturers (Suzuki, Daihatsu, Honda) all experiencing sluggish growth. If this trend continues, the supply of used Kei cars is likely to decrease in six months. Regional dealerships that focus on Kei cars should decide by the end of June whether to strengthen their purchasing channels and revise their inventory turnover plans.

Plan for Inventory Purchased at an Average of 1.31 Million Yen in May, Considering Both Price Maintenance and Turnover in Summer

The average transaction price at USS increased by 89,000 yen from the previous month. If the market continues to rise in June, there will be unrealized gains, but there is also a risk of export-stalled vehicles flowing into the domestic market depending on the exit from the Strait of Hormuz issue. Conduct an inventory check by the third week of June to see if there are any models whose turnover days are increasing.

Anticipate Easing of Used Minivan Market Prices from Year-End Onwards

The increase in new car supply due to the lifting of order restrictions for Toyota's Noah/Voxy means that trade-in vehicles will take 3-6 months to appear in the used car market. Keep in mind the possibility of downward pressure on used minivan prices from the end of the year into early 2027.

Monitor Used Corolla Trends from June Onwards

The sharp increase in new Corolla sales in May (+48.2%) may lead to an increase in used car supply with a time lag of about six months. This could particularly affect the used prices of hybrid models, so keep this in mind as a benchmark for trade-in appraisals.

Sources

JAMA: Vehicle Type Registration Statistics, May 2026 (Announced June 4, 2026), Model Name Ranking (Announced June 4, 2026)

Kei-car Association: Kei-car New Vehicle Sales Report, May 2026 (Announced June 1, 2026), Confirmed Model Name Data, May 2026

JAIA: Imported Vehicle New Registration Statistics, May 2026 (Announced June 4, 2026)

USS: IR Library Monthly Data, Fiscal Year Ending March 2027, May Data (Announced June 5, 2026)

Nikkan Jidosha Shimbun: June 2, 2026 "Domestic New Car Sales in May 2026 Increase 2.8%, Positive for Second Consecutive Month," June 8, 2026 "USS AA Results: May 2026 Sees First Decline in Listings in 6 Months," June 2026 Report "Middle East Used Car Exports Face Numerous Challenges Even with Strait of Hormuz Opening," June 25, 2026 "Gasoline National Average Price 169.80 Yen"

Company Overview

[Fabrica Holdings Inc.]

Representative: Masato Taniguchi, President and CEO

Headquarters: Akasaka 1-chome Center Building 9F, 1-11-30 Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo

Established: November 1994

Stock: Tokyo Stock Exchange Standard Market (Code: 4193)

Corporate Site: https://www.fabrica-hd.co.jp/

[Fabrica Communications Inc.]

Representative: Masato Taniguchi, President and CEO

Headquarters: Sanko Nishiki Building 8F, 3-5-30 Nishiki, Naka-ku, Nagoya City, Aichi Prefecture

Business Activities: Automobile sales support system development and sales, Internet media business, Web marketing support business, Automobile repair and rental car business

Ownership Ratio: 100% Fabrica Holdings Inc.

Corporate Site: https://www.fabrica-com.co.jp/

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