Uncertain Future for Used Car Purchase Prices Due to Strait of Hormuz Blockade / Used Car Market Trend Report (March 2026)

Fabrica Communications, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fabrica Holdings (Headquarters: Naka-ku, Nagoya; President & CEO: Masato Taniguchi), which operates the used car appraisal site 'Kurumaerabi.com Kaitori' (https://www.kurumaerabi.com/kaitori/), has released a report summarizing the used car purchase market trends for February and forecasts for March onwards based on data from the past 2-5 years.

[Key Points of the Report] - February used car purchase prices reached record highs. - High price trends continue, especially for 3-5 year old domestic vehicles. - Concerns that the Strait of Hormuz blockade will impact used car exports and market prices. - While short-term forecasts suggest a softening, prices are expected to remain at high levels.

[Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade on Used Car Exports] In 2025, Japan's used car exports reached a record 1,708,604 units, driven by the normalization of maritime transport post-COVID, increased demand from emerging nations, and price competitiveness due to the weak yen. Although further price hikes were expected this year, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has created uncertainty for these robust exports.

The UAE is Japan's largest used car export destination, receiving approximately 250,000 units last year. It also serves as a critical transshipment hub for the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia. However, the blockade has effectively halted maritime transport to the UAE, potentially affecting about 20% of Japan's total used car exports. This could lead to a decline in domestic purchase prices due to increased supply. Vehicles intended for export are now accumulating at domestic ports and yards, increasing storage costs and potentially leading to fire-sale listings in domestic auctions. CNN reports that the blockade could last from one to six months. Our analysis suggests that if the blockade is short-term, supply will increase slightly, but if it lasts up to six months, it could lead to a sustained oversupply and downward pressure on prices.