China's Youth Population Drops by 80 Million in a Decade; Cities Shift Focus from 'Attracting' to 'Retaining'

CNA, Beijing, May 26. As China's population enters a period of negative growth, an increasing number of provinces and regions are experiencing population contraction. According to reports, China's population aged 20 to 29 has decreased by approximately 80 million over the past decade. Young people are accelerating their concentration in cities with strong industrial competitiveness, such as Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, creating a divergence between the north and south.

According to a report by the Chinese magazine 'Caijing', based on resident population data for 31 provincial-level administrative regions at the end of 2025, only seven provinces and regions—Guangdong, Zhejiang, Xinjiang, Hainan, Shanghai, Tibet, and Ningxia—achieved positive growth in resident population compared to 2024, while 24 provinces and regions continued to see population contraction. Among them, Guangdong added 790,000, ranking first in the country, followed by Zhejiang with an increase of 310,000. Jiangsu, a strong economic province, experienced its first negative growth in resident population in many years.

According to data disclosed in the official 'China Statistical Yearbook', in 2015, the population aged 20 to 29 accounted for 16.65% of the total population. By the 7th National Population Census in 2020, this age group had dropped to approximately 167 million, and by 2024, it had further shrunk to approximately 149 million, accounting for 10.56%. Over the past decade, the national population aged 20 to 29 has decreased by about 80 million.

While the total young population continues to decline at the provincial level, industrial powerhouses like Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu continue to absorb young people. Young people are accelerating their concentration in cities with strong industrial competitiveness; Guangdong and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration continue to see net inflows, while some provinces in the Northeast and North China continue to shrink.

The report points out that the age of 20 to 29 is a critical period for transitioning from education to the labor market and from being single to marriage and childbearing. The flow of this group determines a region's consumption vitality, real estate market trends, public service allocation, and even the potential for industrial upgrading.

Jiang Quanbao, a professor at the School of Labor Economics at Capital University of Economics and Business, was quoted as saying, 'In the next 10 years, the competition between cities to attract young people will no longer be about "who grabs more," but "who can keep them." Industrial capacity determines "who comes," housing prices and public services determine "who stays," and urban culture and quality of life will determine "who can be truly loved by young people."'

Focusing on cities below the provincial level, a group of industrial powerhouses is bucking the trend and absorbing young people. By the end of 2024, Shenzhen's resident population reached 17.9895 million, an annual increase of 199,400, ranking first in the country. Hangzhou's resident population reached 12.7 million by the end of 2025, an increase of 76,000, with a record-breaking 397,000 college students under 35 flowing in during 2023. Chengdu's resident population reached 21.535 million, an increase of 61,000, with over 500,000 young talents flocking to the city in 2024.

Jiang Quanbao believes that the flow pattern of China's young population is being restructured in four aspects. First, it is shifting from national circulation to 'intra-provincial circulation + core urban agglomeration flow,' with strong provincial capitals becoming key nodes. Second, first-tier cities are experiencing a 'crowding-out effect' due to high housing prices, making new first-tier cities like Chengdu and Wuhan the largest catchments. Third, it is shifting from general labor to precise industrial matching—'where the digital economy and new energy industries are, that is where young people go.' Fourth, high-skilled talent is gathering in core areas, while ordinary labor is flowing back to counties or hometowns due to cost pressures. These factors are reshaping the basic landscape of China's urban competition.