Suspicious $800M Oil Trades Probed by CFTC Ahead of Trump's Social Media Post
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating suspicious crude oil futures trading that occurred on March 23. On that day, a wave of trades totaling over $800 million flooded the market just minutes before former U.S. President Trump announced on social media that he was delaying an attack on Iran. This announcement caused oil prices to plummet, allowing traders who had correctly timed their short positions to reap substantial profits. The CFTC is trying to determine if insiders used non-public information to trade or leaked it, with at least three firms, including Qube Research & Technologies, Forza Fund Ltd, and TotalEnergies' unit Totsa, now under scrutiny.
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- 📰 Published: May 20, 2026 at 12:59
- 🔍 Collected: May 20, 2026 at 13:31 (32 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: May 20, 2026 at 13:36 (4 min after Collected)
On the morning of March 23, minutes before then-U.S. President Trump announced on social media that he would postpone an attack on Tehran's energy infrastructure, a wave of trades occurred during non-trading hours. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), over $800 million in U.S. and international crude oil futures were traded within a few short minutes.
As Trump changed his mind, U.S. oil prices plummeted by as much as 13%, and traders who timed their bets correctly profited. According to trading records obtained by The Wall Street Journal, at least five companies each made over $5 million that day from buying and selling crude futures, based on calculations using volume-weighted average prices.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now reviewing this surge in trading volume. According to people familiar with the matter, the CFTC, which regulates the futures market, is trying to determine whether insiders had advance knowledge of Trump's March 23 post and used that information to trade, or leaked it to someone who could.
According to documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal and sources, the CFTC's investigation is focusing on at least three companies. The documents show that London-based investment firm Qube Research & Technologies made about $5 million from those trades; Forza Fund Ltd earned about $10 million. Totsa, a trading unit of France's TotalEnergies, profited by about $200,000.
These companies have not been accused of any wrongdoing, and it is currently unclear why the CFTC is focusing on them. Investigators are delving into an obscure, highly secretive, and often algorithm-driven corner of the market, where the motive for any single trade can be difficult to determine, and the line between luck and skill is very blurry.
Sources familiar with the investigation said some companies contacted by the CFTC attributed their trading decisions to a news headline that appeared about 15 minutes before Trump's post on Truth Social. At 6:50 a.m., the news website Semafor published a headline that read, "White House eyes Iran war off-ramp, even as attacks continue," accompanied by a 111-word article.
Sources say the CFTC's investigation is ongoing.
Stuart Brown, Qube's chief operating officer, wrote in an email that Qube's "investment decisions are model-led and continuously reference a wide variety of data sources rather than making directional trades driven by specific geopolitical commentary, news, or outcomes." He declined to comment further on any regulatory inquiries.
TotalEnergies said in an email that the company "is not aware of any investigation by the CFTC into Totsa’s crude trading activity. Totsa is firmly committed to complying with all applicable market regulations, runs a rigorous market compliance program and has a zero-tolerance policy for any misconduct." A representative for Metabit Trading, a Chinese firm associated with Forza Fund Ltd, said they have not been contacted by the CFTC.
The March 23 incident is not an isolated event. People familiar with the matter said the CFTC is investigating multiple suspicious trades related to Iran-related announcements in April and May. According to Dow Jones Market Data, on May 6, before a report on negotiations to end the war in Iran was published, the market also saw a surge in trading volume, with about $700 million in crude futures changing hands in about an hour.
As Trump changed his mind, U.S. oil prices plummeted by as much as 13%, and traders who timed their bets correctly profited. According to trading records obtained by The Wall Street Journal, at least five companies each made over $5 million that day from buying and selling crude futures, based on calculations using volume-weighted average prices.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now reviewing this surge in trading volume. According to people familiar with the matter, the CFTC, which regulates the futures market, is trying to determine whether insiders had advance knowledge of Trump's March 23 post and used that information to trade, or leaked it to someone who could.
According to documents obtained by The Wall Street Journal and sources, the CFTC's investigation is focusing on at least three companies. The documents show that London-based investment firm Qube Research & Technologies made about $5 million from those trades; Forza Fund Ltd earned about $10 million. Totsa, a trading unit of France's TotalEnergies, profited by about $200,000.
These companies have not been accused of any wrongdoing, and it is currently unclear why the CFTC is focusing on them. Investigators are delving into an obscure, highly secretive, and often algorithm-driven corner of the market, where the motive for any single trade can be difficult to determine, and the line between luck and skill is very blurry.
Sources familiar with the investigation said some companies contacted by the CFTC attributed their trading decisions to a news headline that appeared about 15 minutes before Trump's post on Truth Social. At 6:50 a.m., the news website Semafor published a headline that read, "White House eyes Iran war off-ramp, even as attacks continue," accompanied by a 111-word article.
Sources say the CFTC's investigation is ongoing.
Stuart Brown, Qube's chief operating officer, wrote in an email that Qube's "investment decisions are model-led and continuously reference a wide variety of data sources rather than making directional trades driven by specific geopolitical commentary, news, or outcomes." He declined to comment further on any regulatory inquiries.
TotalEnergies said in an email that the company "is not aware of any investigation by the CFTC into Totsa’s crude trading activity. Totsa is firmly committed to complying with all applicable market regulations, runs a rigorous market compliance program and has a zero-tolerance policy for any misconduct." A representative for Metabit Trading, a Chinese firm associated with Forza Fund Ltd, said they have not been contacted by the CFTC.
The March 23 incident is not an isolated event. People familiar with the matter said the CFTC is investigating multiple suspicious trades related to Iran-related announcements in April and May. According to Dow Jones Market Data, on May 6, before a report on negotiations to end the war in Iran was published, the market also saw a surge in trading volume, with about $700 million in crude futures changing hands in about an hour.