Survey: Taiwan Stock Market Optimism and Risk Appetite Indices Both Hit Record Highs

(CNA, by reporter Su Ssu-yun, Taipei, 20th) Cathay Financial Holdings' May National Economic Confidence Survey shows that with the US-Iran war entering negotiations, market optimism has been boosted, leading the public's optimism index and risk appetite index for Taiwan stocks to rise to 45.5 and 34.4 respectively, both setting new historical highs. As listed companies hold shareholder meetings to decide on dividend distributions, 48% of the public are willing to participate in ex-dividend/ex-right activities, an increase of 11 percentage points from last year. Cathay Financial Holdings released its May National Economic Confidence Survey today. The cessation and negotiation phase of the US-Iran war have driven market optimism, leading to a rise in international stock markets. Furthermore, the continuous development of AI has driven upward revisions of Taiwan stock earnings, causing a significant rise in the Taiwan stock market in April. The survey shows that the public's optimism index for Taiwan stocks rose to 45.5, and the risk appetite index rose to 34.4, both setting new record highs. The latest March Economic Monitoring Indicator released by the National Development Council (NDC) continued to show a red light. The leading indicator slightly declined, while the coincident indicator continued to rise, indicating that the economy is still growing steadily. Influenced by the US-Iran war ceasefire and negotiations, the survey shows that the economic optimism index for the current situation rose to 12, and the outlook optimism index rose to 7.4. The large-ticket purchase willingness index rose to 13.1, and the durable goods purchase willingness index rose to -6.7. On the macroeconomic front, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) forecasted on February 13 that Taiwan's 2026 economic growth rate would be 7.71% and the inflation rate would be 1.68%. The survey shows that 51% of the public expect the 2026 economic growth rate to be above 7%, and 58% expect inflation to be above 2%. Compared to the DGBAS, the public's economic growth forecast for 2026 is slightly more conservative, while their inflation expectations remain higher. In the current affairs section, the survey asked about the public's willingness to participate in ex-dividend/ex-right activities and their views on selling stocks before the tax season. Most listed companies will hold their regular shareholder meetings in the second quarter to decide on dividend distribution and begin ex-dividend/ex-right processes. The survey shows that a total of 48% of the public are willing to participate in these activities this year, an 11-percentage-point increase from last year; among them, 15% are very willing, 33% are quite willing, and 7% have no willingness at all. With the arrival of the tax season in May each year, investors may need to sell stocks and fund assets to pay taxes or for tax-saving purposes. The survey shows that 63% of the public are unlikely or stated it is completely impossible for them to sell stocks or funds before the tax season (same as last year); about 20% of the public might sell stocks or funds before the tax season, an increase of 5 percentage points from last year. The Cathay Financial survey was conducted from May 1 to 7 this year, targeting the official website of Cathay Life Insurance.