Trump-Lai Call? Scholars Assess Possibility as Low

TAIPEI, May 19 (CNA) - U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking about arms sales to Taiwan aboard Air Force One, said he would talk with "the people currently governing Taiwan." Scholars assess that the possibility of a call between Trump and President Lai Ching-te is low, as it would cross Beijing's red line. After concluding his visit to China on the 15th, Trump told reporters on his return flight on Air Force One that he had made no commitments to Beijing and would soon make a decision on a US$14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. He mentioned he would make a decision "in the near future" after speaking with "the people currently governing Taiwan." The Center for China Studies at National Taiwan University held a seminar this morning on "The Development of US-China-Taiwan and Cross-Strait Relations after the Trump-Xi Meeting." Tsai Tung-chieh, a distinguished professor at the Graduate Institute of International Politics at National Chung Hsing University, stated at the seminar that Trump's words literally lean towards "I'll just have a talk with them," which does not necessarily mean directly with President Lai. He assessed that a "Trump-Lai call" is also unlikely because it would step on Beijing's red line. Tsai observed that while structural problems between the U.S. and China will not be resolved in the short term, some issues need to be addressed, and Trump prefers for both sides to get closer to resolve these manageable problems. If Trump were to actually meet or talk with President Lai, it would indeed cross Beijing's red line. Tsai believes that communication channels between Taiwan and the U.S. are open, which is why Taiwan-U.S. relations have developed positively over the past few years, with a certain consensus and positions already articulated. However, in the current situation, the decision likely comes down to Trump's assessment, as he is the ultimate key decision-maker. Chang Kuo-cheng, a professor at the Center for General Education at Taipei Medical University, said that while there is hope for official dialogue between the top leaders of Taiwan and the U.S. following Trump's statement, it seems premature to discuss it. The U.S. arms sale to Taiwan might be heading towards a delay. Chang mentioned that Trump is very different from past U.S. presidents, even publicly stating several times that "Taiwan stole America's chip business." Taiwan cannot underestimate or neglect the ideology behind these remarks and their potential impact. (Editor: Lu Chia-jung) 1150519