Oil Prices Rise Again; New Taiwan Dollar Ends Up 0.6 Cents After Dipping Below 31.6

(CNA, Reporter Pan Tzu-yu, Taipei, 18th) With the Middle East conflict unresolved and international oil prices rising again, investors' inflation concerns have been triggered, leading to bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts and may even raise rates again. The US dollar index has been consolidating at a high level, putting relative pressure on Asian currencies. The New Taiwan Dollar against the US dollar broke the 31.6 level during trading today, but turned around in late trading to close at 31.545, a slight increase of 0.6 cents, ending a four-day decline. With no resolution in sight for the US-Iran conflict, a sharp rise in oil prices has heightened market inflation fears, causing major US stock indexes to close lower on the 15th. The Taiwan stock market once plummeted by over a thousand points in early trading today. However, with strong performances from MediaTek, passive components, and low-earth orbit satellites, and TSMC's losses narrowing, the TAIEX closed down 280.54 points at 40891.82. The NTD opened at 31.57 against the USD today. In early trading, reflecting the decline in Taiwan stocks and capital outflows, the exchange rate quickly fell below 31.6, hitting a low of 31.645. In the afternoon, as exporters increased their forex sales, the decline narrowed, and the central bank intervened in late trading, causing the NTD to rebound from a loss to a gain, closing at 31.545. The total transaction volume in the Taipei and Taipei Forex markets was 1.7795 billion US dollars. A foreign exchange trader pointed out that the Trump-Xi meeting has concluded and appears to have limited impact on financial markets for now. Investors are more focused on the spillover effects of soaring international oil prices. Especially with a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy this year, market expectations for a rate cut have significantly cooled, and some are even betting on another rate hike, which supports the dollar and puts relative pressure on Asian currencies. The trader added that the recent bull market in Taiwan stocks is still ongoing, just undergoing a correction after significant gains. It is worth noting that if the Fed shifts to raising rates, the performance of US tech stocks will likely be suppressed, which would in turn affect Taiwan's stock and foreign exchange markets. Currently, the market sentiment is mixed, with foreign investors engaging in two-way operations, and the NTD exchange rate is in a consolidation phase. In the short term, the NTD's trend will still depend on the development of the US-Iran conflict, the Taiwan stock market, and foreign capital flows. The trader stated that this week the NTD is expected to continue to trade in a range of 31.350 to 31.700, pending new developments to provide fresh guidance to the market. (Editor: Chang Chun-mao) 1150518