Financial Times: As Summer Peak Nears, Iran's Energy Crisis Enters a New Phase
The global energy crisis is entering a new phase, exacerbated by the impending summer energy demand peak in the Northern Hemisphere and export disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict. Analysts warn that Brent crude prices could surge to $180 per barrel, triggering high inflation and economic recession. Currently, global daily oil consumption far exceeds production, causing a rapid decline in emergency reserves, with nearly 80 countries implementing emergency measures. The petrochemical and aviation industries are hit hardest, and a global recession may be unavoidable if the conflict persists.
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- 📰 Published: May 18, 2026 at 12:06
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(CNA, London, 17th) Nearly 80 countries worldwide have implemented emergency measures to cope with the upcoming summer peak in energy demand. Analysts warn that unless a large volume of oil can be re-exported through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could surge again.
Paul Diggle, chief economist at Aberdeen, stated that his team is analyzing a scenario where Brent Crude prices soar to $180 per barrel, which would inevitably trigger high inflation and economic recession in many European and Asian countries.
He told the Financial Times, "We are taking this possibility very seriously, although it is not our base case scenario right now. We are really just holding on at this point."
As the Northern Hemisphere enters summer, air conditioning demand and transportation will further exacerbate supply pressure on crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, with global inventories declining at an unprecedented rate.
Australia announced it would invest $10 billion to increase fuel and fertilizer reserves; France said it would adjust the "scale and scope" of aid to protect its domestic economy; India has urged its citizens not to buy gold or travel abroad to preserve foreign exchange reserves.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the number of countries forced to take emergency response measures has reached 76, up from 55 at the end of March.
Economists and traders warn that the next phase of the crisis could lead to another surge in energy prices, expanded fuel rationing, industrial shutdowns, and a significant slowdown in global economic growth.
Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the European Commissioner for Transport, noted, "If the conflict in the Middle East does not end in the coming weeks and the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, I fear a global economic recession will be unavoidable."
In fact, since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, the world has been in a state of "energy overspending."
The IEA estimates that between March and June, global daily oil consumption will outstrip production by about 6 million barrels. Some analysts believe this gap could be closer to 8 to 9 million barrels. More than 2 million barrels of emergency oil reserves are currently being released into the market daily, but many of these release programs are set to end in July.
The IEA stated that global oil reserves have decreased by nearly 380 million barrels since the war began, a figure that does not include inventory trapped in the Persian Gulf and unable to be exported.
Analysts point out that the market will face problems long before inventories reach zero, as pipelines, refineries, and storage tanks must maintain minimum operating levels to avoid damage. JPMorgan Chase predicts that oil inventories in OECD countries could approach the "operational stress line" as early as June.
Currently, in most developed countries, the sense of crisis is more likely to manifest as soaring prices rather than direct shortages. However, many developing countries are facing fuel shortages.
The IEA said that Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines have already begun implementing measures similar to those during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war energy crisis, including a temporary four-day work week.
The industries most affected at this stage are petrochemicals and aviation.
Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas analysis at HSBC, stated that the core of the current energy crisis is "refined fuels." Refiners are reluctant to buy high-priced crude oil and bear soaring transportation costs, so they are rapidly depleting existing stocks while betting that the war will end soon.
Although some economists still believe the worst-case "stagflationary" scenario can be avoided, Morgan Stanley analysts warn that once oil prices break the $150 per barrel mark, physical shortages, supply chain disruptions, and economic recession will emerge.
Paul Diggle, chief economist at Aberdeen, stated that his team is analyzing a scenario where Brent Crude prices soar to $180 per barrel, which would inevitably trigger high inflation and economic recession in many European and Asian countries.
He told the Financial Times, "We are taking this possibility very seriously, although it is not our base case scenario right now. We are really just holding on at this point."
As the Northern Hemisphere enters summer, air conditioning demand and transportation will further exacerbate supply pressure on crude oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, with global inventories declining at an unprecedented rate.
Australia announced it would invest $10 billion to increase fuel and fertilizer reserves; France said it would adjust the "scale and scope" of aid to protect its domestic economy; India has urged its citizens not to buy gold or travel abroad to preserve foreign exchange reserves.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the number of countries forced to take emergency response measures has reached 76, up from 55 at the end of March.
Economists and traders warn that the next phase of the crisis could lead to another surge in energy prices, expanded fuel rationing, industrial shutdowns, and a significant slowdown in global economic growth.
Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the European Commissioner for Transport, noted, "If the conflict in the Middle East does not end in the coming weeks and the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, I fear a global economic recession will be unavoidable."
In fact, since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, the world has been in a state of "energy overspending."
The IEA estimates that between March and June, global daily oil consumption will outstrip production by about 6 million barrels. Some analysts believe this gap could be closer to 8 to 9 million barrels. More than 2 million barrels of emergency oil reserves are currently being released into the market daily, but many of these release programs are set to end in July.
The IEA stated that global oil reserves have decreased by nearly 380 million barrels since the war began, a figure that does not include inventory trapped in the Persian Gulf and unable to be exported.
Analysts point out that the market will face problems long before inventories reach zero, as pipelines, refineries, and storage tanks must maintain minimum operating levels to avoid damage. JPMorgan Chase predicts that oil inventories in OECD countries could approach the "operational stress line" as early as June.
Currently, in most developed countries, the sense of crisis is more likely to manifest as soaring prices rather than direct shortages. However, many developing countries are facing fuel shortages.
The IEA said that Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines have already begun implementing measures similar to those during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war energy crisis, including a temporary four-day work week.
The industries most affected at this stage are petrochemicals and aviation.
Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas analysis at HSBC, stated that the core of the current energy crisis is "refined fuels." Refiners are reluctant to buy high-priced crude oil and bear soaring transportation costs, so they are rapidly depleting existing stocks while betting that the war will end soon.
Although some economists still believe the worst-case "stagflationary" scenario can be avoided, Morgan Stanley analysts warn that once oil prices break the $150 per barrel mark, physical shortages, supply chain disruptions, and economic recession will emerge.