Survey: German Firms Optimistic on China's Business Prospects, but Still Worry About US-China-EU Trade Tensions
A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce in China shows that German companies' confidence in the Chinese market is recovering, with investment intentions reaching a recent high. However, trade tensions between the US, China, and Europe, as well as geopolitical risks, remain major concerns.
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- 📰 Published: May 14, 2026 at 13:41
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Shanghai, May 14 (CNA) - A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce in China shows signs of recovery in German companies' confidence in the Chinese market, with investment intentions rising to a recent high. However, trade tensions between the US, China, and Europe, the EU's 'de-risking' policy, and the situation in the Middle East remain the main concerns for businesses.
The German Chamber of Commerce in China's website released a flash survey on the 12th, conducted from April 15 to April 21, with 216 member companies of the German Chamber of Commerce in China participating. The chamber has over 1,800 member companies.
The survey results show that responding companies are more optimistic about China's macroeconomic outlook and the development prospects of their respective industries. Regarding China's economic outlook, the survey shows that 37% of respondents expect China's economy to improve in the next 6 months, a significant increase of 22 percentage points from last year. Only 17% expect the economy to worsen, a sharp decline from 56% in 2025.
Regarding industry sentiment, 34% of companies report expecting industry conditions to improve in 2026, up from 19% in 2025. At the same time, 33% believe industry conditions will worsen, down 11 percentage points from last year.
By the end of 2026, 42% of companies expect revenue to grow (up from 29% in 2025), and 29% expect profits to increase, an 11 percentage point rise from 2025. Respondents also reported increases in investment and employment, leading to a more positive overall expectation.
61% of companies plan to increase their investment in China in the next 2 years, up from 53% last year and reaching the highest level since 2023. Conversely, 11% of companies plan to reduce investment, down 3 percentage points from 2025.
In terms of the geopolitical situation, 75% of companies said the war in Iran affects their business operations. The most frequently mentioned impacts were increased logistics costs (55%), followed by rising supply prices (47%) and price increases for their own products (20%).
Most companies are affected by the triangular trade tensions between the US, China, and Europe, with 69% of respondents stating they are negatively affected by US-China tensions, and 59% by EU-China tensions. US tariffs remain the biggest influencing factor, with 69% of companies stating they were affected in 2026, a 7 percentage point decrease from last year. The impact of tariffs from the Chinese side has significantly decreased, down 21 percentage points to 42%.
At the same time, the proportion of companies affected by US-related 'lists' has significantly risen by 12 percentage points to 44%, while those affected by Chinese-related 'lists' is 27%, up 6 percentage points from 2025.
Regarding Sino-European relations and their impact on business, the challenges companies are most concerned about are the EU's initiatives to reduce dependence on China (52%), followed by the EU's concerns about China's overcapacity and trade deficit (40%), and the EU's increased sensitivity to cooperation in specific areas (32%). (Editor: Lu Jia-rong) 1150514
The German Chamber of Commerce in China's website released a flash survey on the 12th, conducted from April 15 to April 21, with 216 member companies of the German Chamber of Commerce in China participating. The chamber has over 1,800 member companies.
The survey results show that responding companies are more optimistic about China's macroeconomic outlook and the development prospects of their respective industries. Regarding China's economic outlook, the survey shows that 37% of respondents expect China's economy to improve in the next 6 months, a significant increase of 22 percentage points from last year. Only 17% expect the economy to worsen, a sharp decline from 56% in 2025.
Regarding industry sentiment, 34% of companies report expecting industry conditions to improve in 2026, up from 19% in 2025. At the same time, 33% believe industry conditions will worsen, down 11 percentage points from last year.
By the end of 2026, 42% of companies expect revenue to grow (up from 29% in 2025), and 29% expect profits to increase, an 11 percentage point rise from 2025. Respondents also reported increases in investment and employment, leading to a more positive overall expectation.
61% of companies plan to increase their investment in China in the next 2 years, up from 53% last year and reaching the highest level since 2023. Conversely, 11% of companies plan to reduce investment, down 3 percentage points from 2025.
In terms of the geopolitical situation, 75% of companies said the war in Iran affects their business operations. The most frequently mentioned impacts were increased logistics costs (55%), followed by rising supply prices (47%) and price increases for their own products (20%).
Most companies are affected by the triangular trade tensions between the US, China, and Europe, with 69% of respondents stating they are negatively affected by US-China tensions, and 59% by EU-China tensions. US tariffs remain the biggest influencing factor, with 69% of companies stating they were affected in 2026, a 7 percentage point decrease from last year. The impact of tariffs from the Chinese side has significantly decreased, down 21 percentage points to 42%.
At the same time, the proportion of companies affected by US-related 'lists' has significantly risen by 12 percentage points to 44%, while those affected by Chinese-related 'lists' is 27%, up 6 percentage points from 2025.
Regarding Sino-European relations and their impact on business, the challenges companies are most concerned about are the EU's initiatives to reduce dependence on China (52%), followed by the EU's concerns about China's overcapacity and trade deficit (40%), and the EU's increased sensitivity to cooperation in specific areas (32%). (Editor: Lu Jia-rong) 1150514