India Bans Sugar Exports Until End of September; Experts Fear Inflation from Middle East Conflict
The Indian government announced an immediate ban on sugar exports until the end of September to cope with tight domestic supply. Experts believe one of the key factors for this policy response is the heightened risk of inflation due to uncertainties from the conflict in the Middle East.
📋 Article Processing Timeline
- 📰 Published: May 14, 2026 at 15:21
- 🔍 Collected: May 14, 2026 at 15:32 (10 min after Published)
- 🤖 AI Analyzed: May 15, 2026 at 06:02 (14h 29m after Collected)
CNA, New Delhi, 14th (Special Correspondent Lee Chin-wei) — The Indian government announced that to cope with tight domestic sugar supply, the export of sugar abroad will be banned from now until the end of September. Experts believe that the uncertainty brought by the Middle East conflict has exacerbated the risk of inflation, which is one of the key reasons for the government's policy response.
India's policy on selling sugar overseas has been elevated from "restricted" exports to a "prohibition" of exports to address the tight domestic supply situation. The ban applies to raw sugar, white sugar, and refined sugar.
The order, issued by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, marks a major policy shift, as the Indian government had previously believed that sugar production capacity would exceed domestic demand, thus permitting exports.
The DGFT's order mentioned that sugar shipments where loading began before May 13th, or where goods were handed over to customs authorities before the order came into effect, will be allowed to be shipped abroad.
The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association last month predicted that India's total sugar supply by September 30th would be around 32 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 32.4 million tons.
In addition to the reduced output, NDTV reported that experts believe the export ban aims to curb the inflationary risks exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
From early October 2025 to the end of September 2026, India's sugar production plus inventory is about 32 million tons. Domestic demand during this period is estimated to reach 28 million tons, leaving an inventory of only 4 million tons, a new low since 2016-2017, when India's sugar inventory was only 3.94 million tons.
Besides inventory issues, the Indian government is also concerned that due to the El Niño effect, rainfall may decrease, potentially leading to a decline in sugar production in 2026-2027. Furthermore, the Middle East crisis has raised concerns about fertilizer shortages, which is another key factor the Indian government fears will affect sugar production.
India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, second only to Brazil, and also a major sugar exporter. When India reduces its sugar exports, the global sugar supply decreases, which will have a particularly large impact on buyers in Asia and Africa. (Editor: Chen Cheng-kung) 1150514
India's policy on selling sugar overseas has been elevated from "restricted" exports to a "prohibition" of exports to address the tight domestic supply situation. The ban applies to raw sugar, white sugar, and refined sugar.
The order, issued by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, marks a major policy shift, as the Indian government had previously believed that sugar production capacity would exceed domestic demand, thus permitting exports.
The DGFT's order mentioned that sugar shipments where loading began before May 13th, or where goods were handed over to customs authorities before the order came into effect, will be allowed to be shipped abroad.
The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association last month predicted that India's total sugar supply by September 30th would be around 32 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 32.4 million tons.
In addition to the reduced output, NDTV reported that experts believe the export ban aims to curb the inflationary risks exacerbated by the heightened uncertainty from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
From early October 2025 to the end of September 2026, India's sugar production plus inventory is about 32 million tons. Domestic demand during this period is estimated to reach 28 million tons, leaving an inventory of only 4 million tons, a new low since 2016-2017, when India's sugar inventory was only 3.94 million tons.
Besides inventory issues, the Indian government is also concerned that due to the El Niño effect, rainfall may decrease, potentially leading to a decline in sugar production in 2026-2027. Furthermore, the Middle East crisis has raised concerns about fertilizer shortages, which is another key factor the Indian government fears will affect sugar production.
India is the world's second-largest sugar producer, second only to Brazil, and also a major sugar exporter. When India reduces its sugar exports, the global sugar supply decreases, which will have a particularly large impact on buyers in Asia and Africa. (Editor: Chen Cheng-kung) 1150514