Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting, Bloomberg Columnist: Taiwan Should Not Be a Bargaining Chip in U.S.-China Negotiations

(Central News Agency, Washington, 13th, comprehensive foreign report) Bloomberg columnist Karishma Vaswani wrote that the first principle of dealing with China is to be clear about which bargaining chips are too precious to be easily traded. She hopes President Trump understands that Taiwan is one of them.

Vaswani, in an article titled "Taiwan Shouldn't Be US Trade Bait for China: Karishma Vaswani," pointed out that using Taiwan as a trade chip would be a major strategic blunder. Taiwan is a core node in the U.S. security architecture in Asia and a key link in the first island chain, capable of both limiting China's military expansion and reassuring U.S. allies.

Taiwan is at the heart of the global technology supply chain, producing approximately 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors, which support AI systems. This is precisely the next frontier in economic and military competition between the U.S. and China.

If Taiwan is used as a bargaining chip, it is not only Taiwan that will feel uneasy, but also allies from Japan to the Philippines will receive a signal that long-standing U.S. policies could be traded away at a whim. This has prompted diplomats across Asia to question: can everything be put on the negotiating table? Trump and Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing on the 14th for their first face-to-face talks since their meeting in Korea last October.

Nevertheless, Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, stated that Trump would not sell out Taiwan for trivial gains. "If he really wanted to trade Taiwan, it would only be for greater interests, such as demanding concessions on contentious issues like state subsidies, industrial policy, and technology transfer, and achieving a more balanced trade and increased exports of U.S. manufactured products."

Vaswani pointed out that the problem is that China will never make these significant concessions, as it would shake the foundations of its economic system and national security strategy. Compared to 2017, Xi Jinping in 2026 is more centralized in power and more confident, believing that China and the U.S. are now in an almost equal position, which is precisely why Taiwan's situation is vulnerable.

While concern over the Taiwan issue is not new, China hopes to use the meeting between the two leaders to advance its long-pursued goal of changing the narrative on Taiwan's status. China's objective may not be to achieve a formal policy change, but rather to hope that Trump's unbridled remarks could further strengthen Beijing's claims.

Vaswani believes that Beijing has already exerted diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan, but this pressure has not shaken the Taiwanese people's vision for the future. Various polls repeatedly show that most people prefer to maintain the status quo rather than unification, and increasingly identify themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese.

Vaswani concluded that using Taiwan as a bargaining chip might bring short-term benefits for the U.S. and Trump's vision for global trade, but it also faces the risk of long-term instability. To maintain the status quo and ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait, Washington should continue to promote arms sales to Taiwan, strengthen joint actions with allies like Japan and the Philippines, and develop contingency plans for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

Given the sensitivity of such issues, perhaps the best outcome for Taiwan from this summit is for Trump to say nothing at all. However, given his past behavior, this is likely wishful thinking. (Compiler: Chen Yu-ting) 1150514