Scholar Discusses China's 'US Kill Line' Narrative, Calls It Dangerous Sentiment

(Central News Agency, Taipei, May 12) Huang Yan-zhong, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, published a commentary in The New York Times, stating that a recent popular narrative on Chinese social media, 'the US Kill Line,' reveals a dangerous sense of Chinese overconfidence. He points out that if Chinese public arrogance escalates, Chinese leaders will face higher political costs for exercising restraint during potential crises arising from issues in the South China Sea or Taiwan.

The Chinese version of The New York Times published a commentary piece by Huang Yan-zhong titled 'Looking at China's Dangerous Overconfidence from the 'US Kill Line'.'

In video game terminology, a 'kill line' refers to a critical health threshold where a character can be easily defeated. Therefore, in the Chinese context, the 'US Kill Line' refers to millions of American families standing on the brink, ready to fall if they face unemployment, illness, or unexpected expenses.

The article states that this has become a dominant metaphor used by Chinese people to describe the U.S.: a United States deeply mired in economic decline, violent crime, and irreversible decay.

However, the article goes on to say that this view is incorrect, as the U.S. violent crime rate is at a decades-long low, and it still possesses unrivaled geopolitical and financial power, with its economy remaining vibrant and over 50% larger than China's total economy.

Instead, this perception, to some extent, provides a psychological defense mechanism, allowing Chinese people to digest the problems they face. This is because China is currently grappling with an economic slowdown, a real estate market collapse, high unemployment rates, and a pervasive sense of uncertainty in society.

In the article, the author states that during his trip to China this spring, he heard the 'US Kill Line' narrative everywhere and observed that narrow nationalism was louder than ever, with the CCP's propaganda fueling it. In recent years, the Chinese government has also been promoting the eradication of 'erroneous' Western ideological frameworks from academia, such as judicial independence and the separation of powers.

The author reflects on his own experiences, writing that he grew up in China in the 1980s when China was implementing an open-door policy and, at the same time, harbored a sense of humility, eager to integrate into the existing international order. However, today, China's prosperity and strength far exceed what its people dared to imagine back then. China is now full of confidence and tends to act according to its own rules.

The article states that Chinese leaders no longer seem to view U.S. pressure in trade and technology as an existential threat requiring compromise, believing that by leveraging China's own strengths, they can easily resolve it. And with the rising arrogance among the Chinese public, should a potential crisis arise over the South China Sea or Taiwan, any restraint shown by Chinese leaders will face higher political costs.

The article points out that game theory research last year showed that even a small increase in nationalist sentiment significantly raises the probability of both the U.S. and China taking harder stances in a confrontation.

The article mentions that this trend is not irreversible, suggesting that U.S. policy towards China should refocus on combining deterrence with repairing people-to-people ties. In simple terms, the U.S. should ease visa and security restrictions for Chinese students and scholars and expand increasingly shrinking tourism, academic, and business exchanges.

Finally, the article notes that the last time a U.S. president visited China was during Trump's first term, nearly nine years ago. Continuous, sober, and firm engagement with China might be the best way to reverse China's cognitive biases and reshape this most important bilateral relationship globally. (Edited by Lu Chia-jung / Chen Kai-yu) 1150512