Bloomberg: AI Chip Boom Drives Taiwan, South Korea Surpluses, May Force Central Bank Rate Hikes This Year
Goldman Sachs economists predict that the AI chip boom will lead to record current account surpluses for Taiwan and South Korea, potentially forcing their central banks to raise interest rates later this year. South Korea is expected to see 0.25 percentage point hikes in Q3 and Q4, while Taiwan is projected for 0.125 percentage point hikes in Q2 and Q4.
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- 📰 Published: May 11, 2026 at 17:53
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Central News Agency (Taipei/Seoul, May 11, Comprehensive Foreign Report) — Bloomberg News reported that economists at Goldman Sachs Group indicate that the artificial intelligence (AI) chip boom will drive Taiwan and South Korea's current account surpluses to historical records, compelling their central banks to raise interest rates later this year.
A team led by Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist, forecasts that South Korea will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in both the third and fourth quarters, while Taiwan is expected to raise rates by 0.125 percentage points in the second quarter (this quarter) and fourth quarter.
Analysts believe that the surge in technology exports will drive South Korea's current account surplus to exceed 10% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2026, with Taiwan's GDP share rising to over 20%. Even under Goldman Sachs' 'extremely unfavorable' scenario where Brent crude oil averages close to $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter, these surpluses will 'largely remain intact.'
Economists stated: 'This AI boom is the strongest technology cycle Taiwan and South Korea have ever experienced. In contrast, non-tech exports are expected to remain weak due to regional oversupply and recent energy shocks.'
They pointed out that South Korea's AI-related exports could triple this year, accounting for nearly 30% of GDP; Taiwan's AI-related exports could climb to over 30% of GDP.
Goldman Sachs noted that South Korea's surplus so far has mainly flowed back into overseas stock markets, while Taiwan's surplus has flowed into foreign exchange deposits, but appreciation pressure may continue to accumulate.
According to a report released by Goldman Sachs today, 'The K-shaped economic cycle suggests that precise and prudent fiscal policies should be adopted. As AI drives a surge in exports, both currencies face appreciation pressure.'
The report forecasts that South Korea's GDP growth rate will rebound from 1% in 2025 to 2.5% this year, and Taiwan's GDP growth rate will rise from 8.7% last year to nearly 10% this year. Economists also added that the tech boom could exacerbate economic growth volatility. (Compiled by Hung Chi-yuan) 1150511
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A team led by Andrew Tilton, Goldman Sachs' chief Asia-Pacific economist, forecasts that South Korea will raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in both the third and fourth quarters, while Taiwan is expected to raise rates by 0.125 percentage points in the second quarter (this quarter) and fourth quarter.
Analysts believe that the surge in technology exports will drive South Korea's current account surplus to exceed 10% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2026, with Taiwan's GDP share rising to over 20%. Even under Goldman Sachs' 'extremely unfavorable' scenario where Brent crude oil averages close to $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter, these surpluses will 'largely remain intact.'
Economists stated: 'This AI boom is the strongest technology cycle Taiwan and South Korea have ever experienced. In contrast, non-tech exports are expected to remain weak due to regional oversupply and recent energy shocks.'
They pointed out that South Korea's AI-related exports could triple this year, accounting for nearly 30% of GDP; Taiwan's AI-related exports could climb to over 30% of GDP.
Goldman Sachs noted that South Korea's surplus so far has mainly flowed back into overseas stock markets, while Taiwan's surplus has flowed into foreign exchange deposits, but appreciation pressure may continue to accumulate.
According to a report released by Goldman Sachs today, 'The K-shaped economic cycle suggests that precise and prudent fiscal policies should be adopted. As AI drives a surge in exports, both currencies face appreciation pressure.'
The report forecasts that South Korea's GDP growth rate will rebound from 1% in 2025 to 2.5% this year, and Taiwan's GDP growth rate will rise from 8.7% last year to nearly 10% this year. Economists also added that the tech boom could exacerbate economic growth volatility. (Compiled by Hung Chi-yuan) 1150511
Choose to stand with facts, every sponsorship you make is a force to protect press freedom.
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The text, images, and audio/video on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and utilized without authorization.