Washington Post: CIA Estimates Iran Can Last Over 3 Months Under US Blockade
A classified CIA analysis indicates that Iran can withstand a US naval blockade for at least 3-4 months, retaining about 70% of its pre-war missile capabilities. This contradicts President Trump's claims of 18-19% missile retention. Iran is economically adapting by storing oil in tankers and reducing oil field output to mitigate pressure.
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- 📰 Published: May 8, 2026 at 12:49
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## Press Release Information
Title: Washington Post: CIA Estimates Iran Can Last Over 3 Months Under US Blockade
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Body (first 8000 characters): US-Iran War Key News
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency Washington 7th Comprehensive Foreign Report) A classified analysis submitted by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to government decision-makers this week indicates that Iran can withstand a US naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 more months before its economy faces immense pressure, and still retains about 70% of its pre-war missile capabilities.
The Washington Post, citing multiple informed sources, revealed that this analysis completed by the intelligence community also believes that despite weeks of intense bombing by the US and Israel, Iran still possesses a considerable degree of ballistic missile capability. The Post believes that intelligence agencies' assessments of Iran tend to be more cautious than the Trump administration's public statements.
US President Trump, speaking about Iran in the Oval Office on the 6th, said: "Most of their missiles have been destroyed, probably only about 18%, 19% left, not much compared to what they originally had."
However, unnamed US officials stated that Iran currently still retains about 75% of its pre-war mobile launchers and about 70% of its missile inventory, adding that there is evidence that Iran has been able to restore and reactivate almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble some new missiles that were nearing completion when the war broke out.
Four informed sources revealed that the CIA's assessment believes Iran can withstand 90 to 120 days of US blockade, or even longer, before facing more severe economic difficulties.
One of the informed sources said that Tehran is redirecting some oil to tankers and reducing oil field output to ensure that oil wells remain operational, and that Iran's economic situation is "far less severe than some claim."
Another official stated that if Tehran can smuggle oil by land, the CIA's analysis might even underestimate Iran's economic resilience. Truck and rail transport cannot replace the volume of sea transport and open sea lanes, but they can still provide a certain degree of economic buffer. This official said: "Some believe that they may start transporting some oil through railways in Central Asia."
Earlier reports disclosed that the Pakistani government opened six freight land corridors connecting its major domestic ports with the Iranian border at the end of April, allowing goods from third countries to bypass the US naval blockade and directly enter Iran by land, providing Iran with more lifelines free from maritime interference, in addition to the China-Iran railway; Iran can also receive Russian aid from the Caspian Sea direction.
Some analysts within and outside the US government point out that to control the Strait of Hormuz, lower-cost drones are more important than missiles, especially since such drones can be produced in small warehouses and easily hidden facilities.
Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said: "If a drone hits a ship, no one will be willing to insure the tanker."
Citrinowicz, who previously headed Iran affairs in Israeli military intelligence, stated that even if the blockade continues for several more months, it will not force the Iranian regime to accept Washington's demands, saying, "The problem is that they don't think they need to yield."
Citrinowicz stated that even if the US and Israel achieve military success in Iran, the outcome of this war could ultimately end in strategic failure.
He posted on X: "This war, originally intended to overthrow the Iranian regime and destroy its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, may instead lead to Tehran gaining sanctions relief, retaining considerable missile capabilities, continuing to support proxy forces, and almost certainly being able to retain uranium enrichment capabilities on its own soil, effectively making the Iranian regime stronger than before." (Compiled by: Chen Yi-wei) 1150508
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Title: Washington Post: CIA Estimates Iran Can Last Over 3 Months Under US Blockade
Subtitle:
Company Name:
Industry:
Body (first 8000 characters): US-Iran War Key News
Central News Agency
(Central News Agency Washington 7th Comprehensive Foreign Report) A classified analysis submitted by the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to government decision-makers this week indicates that Iran can withstand a US naval blockade for at least 3 to 4 more months before its economy faces immense pressure, and still retains about 70% of its pre-war missile capabilities.
The Washington Post, citing multiple informed sources, revealed that this analysis completed by the intelligence community also believes that despite weeks of intense bombing by the US and Israel, Iran still possesses a considerable degree of ballistic missile capability. The Post believes that intelligence agencies' assessments of Iran tend to be more cautious than the Trump administration's public statements.
US President Trump, speaking about Iran in the Oval Office on the 6th, said: "Most of their missiles have been destroyed, probably only about 18%, 19% left, not much compared to what they originally had."
However, unnamed US officials stated that Iran currently still retains about 75% of its pre-war mobile launchers and about 70% of its missile inventory, adding that there is evidence that Iran has been able to restore and reactivate almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles, and even assemble some new missiles that were nearing completion when the war broke out.
Four informed sources revealed that the CIA's assessment believes Iran can withstand 90 to 120 days of US blockade, or even longer, before facing more severe economic difficulties.
One of the informed sources said that Tehran is redirecting some oil to tankers and reducing oil field output to ensure that oil wells remain operational, and that Iran's economic situation is "far less severe than some claim."
Another official stated that if Tehran can smuggle oil by land, the CIA's analysis might even underestimate Iran's economic resilience. Truck and rail transport cannot replace the volume of sea transport and open sea lanes, but they can still provide a certain degree of economic buffer. This official said: "Some believe that they may start transporting some oil through railways in Central Asia."
Earlier reports disclosed that the Pakistani government opened six freight land corridors connecting its major domestic ports with the Iranian border at the end of April, allowing goods from third countries to bypass the US naval blockade and directly enter Iran by land, providing Iran with more lifelines free from maritime interference, in addition to the China-Iran railway; Iran can also receive Russian aid from the Caspian Sea direction.
Some analysts within and outside the US government point out that to control the Strait of Hormuz, lower-cost drones are more important than missiles, especially since such drones can be produced in small warehouses and easily hidden facilities.
Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said: "If a drone hits a ship, no one will be willing to insure the tanker."
Citrinowicz, who previously headed Iran affairs in Israeli military intelligence, stated that even if the blockade continues for several more months, it will not force the Iranian regime to accept Washington's demands, saying, "The problem is that they don't think they need to yield."
Citrinowicz stated that even if the US and Israel achieve military success in Iran, the outcome of this war could ultimately end in strategic failure.
He posted on X: "This war, originally intended to overthrow the Iranian regime and destroy its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, may instead lead to Tehran gaining sanctions relief, retaining considerable missile capabilities, continuing to support proxy forces, and almost certainly being able to retain uranium enrichment capabilities on its own soil, effectively making the Iranian regime stronger than before." (Compiled by: Chen Yi-wei) 1150508
Choose to stand with facts, every sponsorship you make is a force to protect press freedom.
Download the Central News Agency's "First-hand News" APP to get the latest news instantly.
The text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.
Keywords: