French Expert on Trump-Xi Meeting: Taiwan Issue Affects Confidence of US Asian Allies

Central News Agency (Reporter Tseng Yi-hsuan, Paris, 8th) — US President Trump is about to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. French expert on Asian affairs, François Godement, wrote that while Trump has criticized Taiwan's insufficient defense spending, if the US abandons Taiwan, the impact on its Asian allies could be more severe than a withdrawal from Europe.

Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing on the 14th and 15th of this month to meet with Xi Jinping. It is generally expected that the two will discuss issues such as Taiwan, Iran, and trade.

Godement stated in an article recently published on the website of the think tank "Institut Montaigne" that given the constant changes in overall US policy, especially towards China, the uncertainty of this Trump-Xi meeting is greater than ever.

He wrote that there are two images to describe this Trump-Xi meeting: one portrays Xi Jinping as a praying mantis patiently waiting for its prey, trying to show a calm, stable, and responsible image; as for Trump, he can be compared to Muhammad Ali's famous quote: "Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee," meaning that the US strategy on issues such as Venezuela, Iran, and tariffs on Europe seems scattered and chaotic, but sometimes demonstrates the power of a diplomatic and military superpower.

He stated that since Trump and Xi agreed to a trade war truce in Busan, South Korea, last October, the issue of additional tariffs remains unresolved, and trade rebalancing is still on the agenda. However, the focus has shifted to traditional areas such as soybeans, aviation, and energy. Compared to Trump's first term, the US has adjusted its China policy, for example, no longer mentioning human rights issues, nor officially prohibiting Nvidia from selling H200 chips.

Godement said that in addition to expressing opposition to trade and financial restrictions, China may also raise some demands at the Trump-Xi meeting, perhaps including Taiwan; former US President Joe Biden had stated his willingness to intervene if China used force, but Trump has returned to a more traditional ambiguous stance on the relevant conditions.

He pointed out that Trump and officials such as US Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby have criticized Taiwan's insufficient defense spending. However, abandoning Taiwan would have more severe consequences for US allies in Asia than a withdrawal from Europe, and would be a major victory for China. US Asian allies are clearly all concerned about this issue, but he believes Xi Jinping is unlikely to show his hand too early.

Godement also mentioned that another potential issue for the Trump-Xi meeting is Japan. China's attitude towards Japan and its Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is tough, exceeding China's recent threats of retaliation due to EU industrial policy-related legislation; however, this does not hinder the possibility of a US-China compromise. If China can reach a compromise with the US or delay major disagreements between them, it could instead dampen the morale of US allies, because US allies are not only worried about China's actions but also about US unpredictability.

Godement wrote that it is undeniable that China is closing the power gap with the US, but this is more due to China's rise than US decline; with US allies in diplomatic confusion and economic weakness, China has much room for maneuver.

He concluded that the US economic growth trend has defied many negative expectations. For China, adopting a wait-and-see or even open attitude before the US midterm elections in November this year might be more beneficial. Therefore, both the US and China may want to package the situation as more optimistic than it actually is, which shows that their interdependent relationship is not so easily overthrown. (Editor: Tang Sheng-yang) 1150508

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