US-China Summit Anticipated: Analysts Say Trump Won't Trade Taiwan, Arms Sales Benefit US and Taiwan
Ahead of the highly anticipated US-China summit, US scholars believe President Trump will not trade Taiwan for an investment deal with China. They also suggest that while Beijing may raise the issue of US arms sales to Taiwan, Trump understands these sales benefit both Taiwan's defense and the US economy, making rejection unlikely.
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Central News Agency (Washington, May 7) With the global spotlight on the upcoming US-China summit next week, American scholars today stated that they do not believe US President Donald Trump would trade Taiwan for an investment agreement with China. Additionally, while Beijing might raise the issue of US arms sales to Taiwan, Trump understands that these sales are crucial not only for Taiwan's defense but also beneficial to the American economy and defense industries.
Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing from May 14 to 15 to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this week responded to media inquiries, stating he was certain Taiwan would be one of the topics discussed at the summit.
The Washington think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), held an online briefing today, where Bonny Lin, Director of the CSIS China Power Project, and senior advisor Edgard D. Kagan, among others, analyzed the upcoming US-China summit.
Lin stated that she does not believe China would attend this meeting thinking that Trump would trade Taiwan if they offered a massive investment deal, hoping they are not that naive. She also does not believe Trump would trade Taiwan.
Lin observed that Trump indeed views the economy as a priority for the talks, along with the Iran issue, while China wants to bring up the Taiwan issue. However, she noted that these three issues are not necessarily interchangeable. At least from the US perspective, these are three independent matters with no direct links.
Kagan, who served as US Ambassador to Malaysia under both the Biden and Trump administrations, also said that Trump is highly confident in his personal relationship with Xi Jinping and hopes to demonstrate his ability to leverage this relationship for substantial US interests.
Kagan stated that, based on his experience, Trump is unlikely to sacrifice US interests related to Taiwan in exchange for other things.
Regarding US arms sales to Taiwan, Lin stated that China is expected to raise this issue again, but she believes Trump understands that Taiwan is an important issue for China, and he also knows that arms sales to Taiwan are crucial for Taiwan's defense and beneficial to the US economy and defense industries.
Therefore, she believes Trump is unlikely to reject arms sales. Trump might sense that a large-scale arms sale between US-China leadership summits could make Beijing hesitant about the summit, but despite a large-scale arms sale to Taiwan announced late last year, Trump is still scheduled to visit China more than five months later. In the 'Trump 2.0' era, there has been no instance where large-scale US arms sales to Taiwan have hindered US-China leadership meetings.
Lin also said that if Taiwan could pass a special defense budget, Trump's current stance on Taiwan could be significantly strengthened.
Furthermore, Lin predicted that Xi Jinping and Trump might hint during their meeting that Trump should change his wording regarding Taiwan, making a statement that the US 'opposes' Taiwan independence. The US's consistent past position has been 'does not support' Taiwan independence; changing from 'does not support' to 'opposes' would be a very critical shift.
She pointed out that another possibility is to suggest Trump make a statement supporting 'peaceful reunification of Taiwan.' The US government's past statement has been to support 'peaceful resolution' of the Taiwan issue and oppose any unilateral change to the status quo. China might also use this meeting, and the three subsequent meetings between Trump and Xi later this year, to convey to the US that 'allowing Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to transit through the US is not in US interests.' (Editor: Chen Hui-ping) 1150508. Choose to stand with facts; every sponsorship you provide is a force to protect press freedom. Download the Central News Agency "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news. The text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.
Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing from May 14 to 15 to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this week responded to media inquiries, stating he was certain Taiwan would be one of the topics discussed at the summit.
The Washington think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), held an online briefing today, where Bonny Lin, Director of the CSIS China Power Project, and senior advisor Edgard D. Kagan, among others, analyzed the upcoming US-China summit.
Lin stated that she does not believe China would attend this meeting thinking that Trump would trade Taiwan if they offered a massive investment deal, hoping they are not that naive. She also does not believe Trump would trade Taiwan.
Lin observed that Trump indeed views the economy as a priority for the talks, along with the Iran issue, while China wants to bring up the Taiwan issue. However, she noted that these three issues are not necessarily interchangeable. At least from the US perspective, these are three independent matters with no direct links.
Kagan, who served as US Ambassador to Malaysia under both the Biden and Trump administrations, also said that Trump is highly confident in his personal relationship with Xi Jinping and hopes to demonstrate his ability to leverage this relationship for substantial US interests.
Kagan stated that, based on his experience, Trump is unlikely to sacrifice US interests related to Taiwan in exchange for other things.
Regarding US arms sales to Taiwan, Lin stated that China is expected to raise this issue again, but she believes Trump understands that Taiwan is an important issue for China, and he also knows that arms sales to Taiwan are crucial for Taiwan's defense and beneficial to the US economy and defense industries.
Therefore, she believes Trump is unlikely to reject arms sales. Trump might sense that a large-scale arms sale between US-China leadership summits could make Beijing hesitant about the summit, but despite a large-scale arms sale to Taiwan announced late last year, Trump is still scheduled to visit China more than five months later. In the 'Trump 2.0' era, there has been no instance where large-scale US arms sales to Taiwan have hindered US-China leadership meetings.
Lin also said that if Taiwan could pass a special defense budget, Trump's current stance on Taiwan could be significantly strengthened.
Furthermore, Lin predicted that Xi Jinping and Trump might hint during their meeting that Trump should change his wording regarding Taiwan, making a statement that the US 'opposes' Taiwan independence. The US's consistent past position has been 'does not support' Taiwan independence; changing from 'does not support' to 'opposes' would be a very critical shift.
She pointed out that another possibility is to suggest Trump make a statement supporting 'peaceful reunification of Taiwan.' The US government's past statement has been to support 'peaceful resolution' of the Taiwan issue and oppose any unilateral change to the status quo. China might also use this meeting, and the three subsequent meetings between Trump and Xi later this year, to convey to the US that 'allowing Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te to transit through the US is not in US interests.' (Editor: Chen Hui-ping) 1150508. Choose to stand with facts; every sponsorship you provide is a force to protect press freedom. Download the Central News Agency "First-hand News" APP to stay updated with the latest news. The text, images, and videos on this website may not be reproduced, publicly broadcast, or publicly transmitted and used without authorization.